Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I bet that D9 EURO deal ends up on the EC - either that or sheared much more eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 No - not a shock given the factors outlined a while ago. I may have taken some creative liberties with the Diagnostic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 No - not a shock given the factors outlined a while ago. WOOSH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MARSHFIELD CLEAR 61 36 39 SW7 30.02S NEW BEDFORD MOSUNNY 59 35 40 W9 30.03F NEW HAVEN PTSUNNY 59 31 34 SW8 Even ORH at 54....impressive torch. I think Kev wrote the model diagnostic today: ...CLOSED LOW/TROF REACHING ONTARIO/UPR GRTLKS BY SUN... ...WRN ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS BY SUN... ...PLAINS TO E-CNTRL CONUS SFC EVOLUTION SAT-SUN... PREFERENCE: UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/ECMWF BLEND SFC AND ALOFT... OR A SWD/COLD ADJUSTED VERSION OF A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE FOR DEPTH/TRACK AT THE SFC BUT WITH MORE QPF. ...A COMPROMISE AMONG THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/ECMWF IS RECOMMENDED TO DEPICT THE DESIRED SNOWY INTERMEDIATE SOLN... WITH A SWD ADJUSTED VERSION OF A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE ALSO A FEASIBLE OPTION. GHG is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I bet that D9 EURO deal ends up on the EC - either that or sheared much more eastward. Agreed it does look promising for that March fun promised by Ray and others for weeks, months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 HPC Extended Discussion seems to disagree with the Model Diagnostic Discussion: 12Z RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET AND GEFS HAVE TAKEN THE CANADIAN VORTEX BY DAYS 3 AND 4 THAT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO CROSS JAMES BAY ABOUT 250 NM NORTHWARD. THIS ALLOWS MORE RIDGING/HIGHER HTS SOUTHWARD OVER ERN CONUS AND A BRINGS A MORE NWD STORM TRACK THAN PRIOR RUNS. 12Z ECMWF DID NOT MAKE THIS ADJUSTMENT AND ACTUALLY EVEN CAME FARTHER SOUTWARD WITH THE CANADIAN VORTEX AND THE LOW AND FRONT THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. SINCE THIS IS A KNOWN BIAS AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL OTHER MODEL SUPPORT OR GFS ENS SUPPORT PREFER THE CONSENSUS OF A NWD ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER BEING LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING SOME WAVERING IN LOCATION MAY WELL BE SEE AGAIN. HPC SFC AND TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE KEEPING THE LOW TRACK AND FRONT FARTHER NORTH DAYS 3 AND 4 FROM THE PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 WOOSH! LOL. -- Scott I'm not sure about GHG. We did touch 60.2 here for a bit. I checked both the back and front thermos...the front is entirely shielded from ANY sun and was touching 60 just barely. 58 now as winds have slightly increased....blowing off all of your old dirty snowpacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 HPC Extended Discussion seems to disagree with the Model Diagnostic Discussion: 12Z RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET AND GEFS HAVE TAKEN THE CANADIAN VORTEX BY DAYS 3 AND 4 THAT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO CROSS JAMES BAY ABOUT 250 NM NORTHWARD. THIS ALLOWS MORE RIDGING/HIGHER HTS SOUTHWARD OVER ERN CONUS AND A BRINGS A MORE NWD STORM TRACK THAN PRIOR RUNS. 12Z ECMWF DID NOT MAKE THIS ADJUSTMENT AND ACTUALLY EVEN CAME FARTHER SOUTWARD WITH THE CANADIAN VORTEX AND THE LOW AND FRONT THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. SINCE THIS IS A KNOWN BIAS AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL OTHER MODEL SUPPORT OR GFS ENS SUPPORT PREFER THE CONSENSUS OF A NWD ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER BEING LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING SOME WAVERING IN LOCATION MAY WELL BE SEE AGAIN. HPC SFC AND TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE KEEPING THE LOW TRACK AND FRONT FARTHER NORTH DAYS 3 AND 4 FROM THE PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND. i have never seen the king dissed as often as this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 HPC Extended Discussion seems to disagree with the Model Diagnostic Discussion: 12Z RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET AND GEFS HAVE TAKEN THE CANADIAN VORTEX BY DAYS 3 AND 4 THAT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO CROSS JAMES BAY ABOUT 250 NM NORTHWARD. THIS ALLOWS MORE RIDGING/HIGHER HTS SOUTHWARD OVER ERN CONUS AND A BRINGS A MORE NWD STORM TRACK THAN PRIOR RUNS. 12Z ECMWF DID NOT MAKE THIS ADJUSTMENT AND ACTUALLY EVEN CAME FARTHER SOUTWARD WITH THE CANADIAN VORTEX AND THE LOW AND FRONT THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. SINCE THIS IS A KNOWN BIAS AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL OTHER MODEL SUPPORT OR GFS ENS SUPPORT PREFER THE CONSENSUS OF A NWD ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER BEING LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING SOME WAVERING IN LOCATION MAY WELL BE SEE AGAIN. HPC SFC AND TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE KEEPING THE LOW TRACK AND FRONT FARTHER NORTH DAYS 3 AND 4 FROM THE PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND. Yeah part of the reason I took some liberties with the other one is I thought some of the wording was a bit odd. Desired solution kind of makes it sound like one of us wrote it, IMO. It's a glaring EURO bias. Once in a blue moon it ends up being right in this situation but this isn't probably one of those times. Going running again for winds kick up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 i have never seen the king dissed as often as this winter. he has had a rough yr, but ill tell you what he was very good with the clipper up here this weekend, absolutely nailed the qpf and the degree of warming and mixing.....while ALL the other models were too far south right into the last 24 hours. euro was right from 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 i have never seen the king dissed as often as this winter. Hopefully it will react like this king in Bahrain and give all the naysayers a beat down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Agreed it does look promising for that March fun promised by Ray and others for weeks, months. Heh, I don't have a comment on the month of March - per se. But for the next two weeks, I suspect the storm track is a bit more suppressed. I also disagree with HPC and Messenger - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Heh, I don't have a comment on the month of March - per se. But for the next two weeks, I suspect the storm track is a bit more suppressed. I also disagree with HPC and Messenger - haha I think Kev is using mind control on you like in the movie Scanners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Heh, I don't have a comment on the month of March - per se. But for the next two weeks, I suspect the storm track is a bit more suppressed. I also disagree with HPC and Messenger - haha I actually wasn't making any comments about March as a whole, but extrapolating past day 10, it looks like low pressure would eject out of the four corners region into the plains, possibly putting us on track for a storm right at the beginning of the month... That would be pretty funny considering all I've been reading for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Man, that snowpack really has a knack for self preservation ......my Davis reads 46.5\36*.....obviously way off, but it goes to show how the snow is not being exposed to 55-60* temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think Kev is using mind control on you like in the movie Scanners. That movie was awesome! Didn't some dude's head explode in that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 That movie was awesome! Didn't some dude's head explode in that - It didn't explode; it bifuricated- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 lol...so some show rain some show snow..so BOX just says **** it, partly sunny and 33F. (They do have a chance of snow showers Sunday aft) Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Washington's Birthday: Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 lol...so some show rain some show snow..so BOX just says **** it, partly sunny and 33F. (They do have a chance of snow showers Sunday aft) Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Washington's Birthday: Partly sunny, with a high near 33. I couldn't care less what they put in the point-and-click disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Great afternoon. Snowpack very resilient. About to pack up the tools and take the snowmachines out. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Great afternoon. Snowpack very resilient. About to pack up the tools and take the snowmachines out. Nice. temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro ensembles agree with the op run fwiw, and agree rather well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I was in Eastern Mass. last week. First time in New England this time of year. Beautiful part of the country, but the climo...well, no thanks...LOL 72 here today in the Mid Atlantic!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 LOL. -- Scott I'm not sure about GHG. We did touch 60.2 here for a bit. I checked both the back and front thermos...the front is entirely shielded from ANY sun and was touching 60 just barely. 58 now as winds have slightly increased....blowing off all of your old dirty snowpacks. They've been warm all winter. Stupid AWOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro ensembles agree with the op run fwiw, and agree rather well. Nice!!!. Most of us knew colder was the way to lean ..AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nice!!!. Most of us knew colder was the way to lean ..AMOUT I wouldn't run naked yet, but it's nice having that on our side. I've seen the ensembles waffle 96 hrs out. Perhaps some sort of compromise is in order between the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I couldn't care less what they put in the point-and-click disaster. lol - I have rain/ snow shown for Sunday, but 3 or so miles to my north is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 lol - I have rain/ snow shown for Sunday, but 3 or so miles to my north is all snow. I get snow/high of 33*. But wiht a 20% chance who cares what you get? I'm happier to see the 55mph gusts for Sat night and 50 for Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro ensembles agree with the op run fwiw, and agree rather well. Garbage in garbage out. The fundamental bias rages in the ensembles too. We will probably see a compromise as always....maybe towards the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro ensembles agree with the op run fwiw, and agree rather well. Ugh...that soloution=lame city, but it would jive with my thoughts regarding the rest of this month, rather well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.