40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 If euswx was still alive we could do a board analog. Has happened the last year or two where the pattern breaks and it takes weeks for most to get on board with what dt said weeks ago. But anyway I like the up and down patterns which is exactly what we are getting. The nw move on the euro may well continue making winters return wet not white for many in sne. I certainly was NOT excited one year ago, today......no analog, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Ray [2-5"]Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 you get 1-2" over a two day period congrats. Will says advisory snow..you call for 1-2..hmm...I wonder who i should trust.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Back to the sh***y scenario....oh well...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Will says advisory snow..you call for 1-2..hmm...I wonder who i should trust.. the .25" contour doesn't get east of a line from hfd-isp the confluence really squashes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 the .25" contour doesn't get east of a line from hfd-isp the confluence really squashes it Are you saying Will was wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Are you saying Will was wrong? You love to hide behind prominent mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 That soloution is nothing that would intrigue me, but I'm not that concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 You love to hide behind prominent mets I'm pretty sure Will wouldn't post advisory level snows if he didn't see/think that is what the model depicted. I know he wouldn't focus on qpf 4 days in advance, but rather look at the setup to make his determination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Are you saying Will was wrong? i was just posting what i see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The euro is also slower to eject energy from the southwest trough. It digs the trough into the southwest which may be why it's a little slower..so perhaps a bias, but the PV imo is the difference maker. It has the elongation to the southwest, but this feature weakens and the PV consolidates as it moves east. It's still a volatile solution, so I wouldn't necessarily lock this in. Raging bias. It's a huge red flag that it's out there on its own. Not like it's having a homerun year....bust IMO. "One of the main model biases with the ECMWF model is that it tends to overdevelop mid-level and upper-level cyclones across the southwestern United States. The reason for this is that the model is not fast enough to move a system out from the desert southwest and actually slows the system down and further develops it in place" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm pretty sure Will wouldn't post advisory level snows if he didn't see/think that is what the model depicted. I know he wouldn't focus on qpf 4 days in advance, but rather look at the setup to make his determination Stop with the qpf fetishes. Good jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Stop with the qpf fetishes. Good jesus. I don't know why you directed that at me..I didn't say anything about qpf for the system. Why was that directed at me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm pretty sure Will wouldn't post advisory level snows if he didn't see/think that is what the model depicted. I know he wouldn't focus on qpf 4 days in advance, but rather look at the setup to make his determination I agree, it looks advisory-ish. Good ratios too imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Raging bias. It's a huge red flag that it's out there on its own. Not like it's having a homerun year....bust IMO. "One of the main model biases with the ECMWF model is that it tends to overdevelop mid-level and upper-level cyclones across the southwestern United States. The reason for this is that the model is not fast enough to move a system out from the desert southwest and actually slows the system down and further develops it in place" I took that into consideration, but it's different with the PV in Canada too. It's just another solution to think about, but now that we are within 96 hrs, it also should be weighed in. Then we have this nice spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 i was just posting what i see that's an odd looking QPF map..doubt that verifies verbatim...but yes, it's a concern that it dampens out as it come east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Anyone else in SE MA just hear that? Otis is no longer a fighter base but we just had some bizzare activity here for 10-15 minutes. A couple of jets just went screaming off to the north...so low birds were zigging and zagging. Wouldnt be as concerned if I didn't have a nuke plant just up the road. Very very odd. Even when the base was active I can't recall them ever being so low. Never got a clear ID on the planes but they were hauling asz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Anyone else in SE MA just hear that? Otis is no longer a fighter base but we just had some bizzare activity here for 10-15 minutes. A couple of jets just went screaming off to the north...so low birds were zigging and zagging. Wouldnt be as concerned if I didn't have a nuke plant just up the road. Very very odd. NORAD is running drills. It's been all over the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Anyone else in SE MA just hear that? Otis is no longer a fighter base but we just had some bizzare activity here for 10-15 minutes. A couple of jets just went screaming off to the north...so low birds were zigging and zagging. Wouldnt be as concerned if I didn't have a nuke plant just up the road. Very very odd. Even when the base was active I can't recall them ever being so low. Never got a clear ID on the planes but they were hauling asz. Exercises. This was mentioned on the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 NORAD is running drills. It's been all over the news. Exercises. This was mentioned on the news. FU**....that would have made an awesome video. My guess is it was in fact a drill dealing with Pilgrim. When I tell you guys these things were low....as in can feel the room shaking. Would have been freaking awesome to catch on video or maybe not I'm going to assume that was the simulated high speed pilgrim is in trouble intercept. That was freaking awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 So what's going on in the weather dept.? I see Kev is barking snow, Mess is barking rain. Let me guess, the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I don't know why you directed that at me..I didn't say anything about qpf for the system. Why was that directed at me? You ftl....Forky spoon ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 You ftl....Forky spoon ftw He was scared to call Forky out..so instead directed it at me even though it was meant for Forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 50s at 2k?? Pete's locks must be dripping with sweat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 the euro is the first to show a storm, but late in coming to the NW trend party. lock up the NAM and take a grinder to the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 FU**....that would have made an awesome video. My guess is it was in fact a drill dealing with Pilgrim. When I tell you guys these things were low....as in can feel the room shaking. Would have been freaking awesome to catch on video or maybe not I'm going to assume that was the simulated high speed pilgrim is in trouble intercept. That was freaking awesome. I was bass fishing on the Concord River a few years ago on the friday before the big Hanscom air show. The Thunderbirds were out doing their practice run, but between "tricks" (which were awesome to watch) they would slip into simulated dogfights. Twice I had two planes screaming down the river just above tree top level right over my head. I hit the deck the first time, the second I just stood in awe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Anyone else in SE MA just hear that?Otis is no longer a fighter base but we just had some bizzare activity here for 10-15 minutes. A couple of jets just went screaming off to the north...so low birds were zigging and zagging. Wouldnt be as concerned if I didn't have a nuke plant just up the road. Very very odd. Even when the base was active I can't recall them ever being so low. Never got a clear ID on the planes but they were hauling asz. Yeah I heard it..for about a minute straight..and I'm currently in Fall River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MARSHFIELD CLEAR 61 36 39 SW7 30.02S NEW BEDFORD MOSUNNY 59 35 40 W9 30.03F NEW HAVEN PTSUNNY 59 31 34 SW8 Even ORH at 54....impressive torch. I think Kev wrote the model diagnostic today: ...CLOSED LOW/TROF REACHING ONTARIO/UPR GRTLKS BY SUN... ...WRN ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS BY SUN... ...PLAINS TO E-CNTRL CONUS SFC EVOLUTION SAT-SUN... PREFERENCE: UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/ECMWF BLEND SFC AND ALOFT... OR A SWD/COLD ADJUSTED VERSION OF A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE FOR DEPTH/TRACK AT THE SFC BUT WITH MORE QPF. ...A COMPROMISE AMONG THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/ECMWF IS RECOMMENDED TO DEPICT THE DESIRED SNOWY INTERMEDIATE SOLN... WITH A SWD ADJUSTED VERSION OF A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE ALSO A FEASIBLE OPTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MARSHFIELD CLEAR 61 36 39 SW7 30.02S NEW BEDFORD MOSUNNY 59 35 40 W9 30.03F NEW HAVEN PTSUNNY 59 31 34 SW8 Even ORH at 54....impressive torch. I think Kev wrote the model diagnostic today: ...CLOSED LOW/TROF REACHING ONTARIO/UPR GRTLKS BY SUN... ...WRN ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS BY SUN... ...PLAINS TO E-CNTRL CONUS SFC EVOLUTION SAT-SUN... PREFERENCE: UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/ECMWF BLEND SFC AND ALOFT... OR A SWD/COLD ADJUSTED VERSION OF A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE FOR DEPTH/TRACK AT THE SFC BUT WITH MORE QPF. ...A COMPROMISE AMONG THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/ECMWF IS RECOMMENDED TO DEPICT THE DESIRED SNOWY INTERMEDIATE SOLN... WITH A SWD ADJUSTED VERSION OF A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE ALSO A FEASIBLE OPTION. No - not a shock given the factors outlined a while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I was bass fishing on the Concord River a few years ago on the friday before the big Hanscom air show. The Thunderbirds were out doing their practice run, but between "tricks" (which were awesome to watch) they would slip into simulated dogfights. Twice I had two planes screaming down the river just above tree top level right over my head. I hit the deck the first time, the second I just stood in awe. Yeah I heard it..for about a minute straight..and I'm currently in Fall River. The planes are flying out of Quebec....a C-21 is being chased by two fighters in a simulated 9/11 type deal. They looked like F-16's to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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