CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 What did the GGEM do last nght at 00z? Canadian was the coldest of them all, brought a weak wave south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Worst case scenario, first wave is rain, second is south with no snow.......getting that sinking feeling, nam looked north as well with rd 1, just what the models show thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Just to illustrate how much volatility there is, look how the 12z NAM shifted the trough near AK west almost 500 miles and amplified it considerably vs. the 0z run - and this is only 48 hours out! That amplification and westward shift is critical because it helps keeps the polar vortex further west as well, and allows it to interact more with the southern stream later in the run. Good illustration here. The GFS is now doing that elongation of the PV to the southwest, which allows for that energy from the southwest trough to move northeast, out ahead of it. We'll see what the rest of the runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Canadian was the coldest of them all, brought a weak wave south of Long Island. If 12z makes a drastic shift north..then maybe we worry about an issue..but i don't see that happening with weak -NAO ,confluence and pressing PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The GFS is not all that different over the coastline of western Canada but really changed the configuration of the PV over Manitoba. It now hangs some energy back, instead of the 00z depiction which kept it more consolidated and a little more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 If 12z makes a drastic shift north..then maybe we worry about an issue..but i don't see that happening with weak -NAO ,confluence and pressing PV I'll wait for the rest of the suite...just saying what it showed. It played around with the PV configuration, so I'm not sure how viable it is. Certainly the risk is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Talk about feast or famine later next week on the gfs, dryslot rejoices while messenger breaks out the sand bags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'll wait for the rest of the suite...just saying what it showed. It played around with the PV configuration, so I'm not sure how viable it is. Certainly the risk is north. It'll come back south with that Monday deal... I like that run overall...pretty sweet if you are a snow/winter-time lover. 3 solid advisory to lower-scaled warn events on that through D10. I like the big baroclinic intensity vibe with that repetitive buckling in the mid Canadian mid levels causing semi-permanent heavy cold to load into the northern Tier to New England... Positively tilted trouhgs and even polar side vort max translations can offer overrunning events in general; here we have 3 moderate cyclones to work with. Anyway focusing on details on this run and letting that sombre mood/outlook on things is being foolish - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Tip's here to save the day from the GFS humpers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 UKMET also shows the elongation of the polar vortex to the SW allowing it to interact with part of the energy from the SW US. It's similar to the GFS and NAM but not as extreme in the elongation, keeping a little stronger confluence zone in place. The UKMET also doesn't generally have the huge run to run jumps that the GFS and NAM do, so that makes me more inclined to believe the trend toward elongating the polar vortex and having it interact with southern stream energy is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 UKMET also shows the elongation of the polar vortex to the SW allowing it to interact with part of the energy from the SW US. It's similar to the GFS and NAM. It also doesn't generally have the huge run to run jumps that the GFS and NAM do, so that makes me more inclined to believe this trend is real. Can that interaction work in our favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Talk about feast or famine later next week on the gfs, dryslot rejoices while messenger breaks out the sand bags. Its starting to get to that time of year when lattitude plays a bigger roll for snow up here especially with this type of gradient pattern, SWFE....ftw usually here, ala 2007-2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Its starting to get to that time of year when lattitude plays a bigger roll for snow up here especially with this type of gradient pattern, SWFE....ftw usually here, ala 2007-2008 Absolutely, climo is slowly taking hold, its your turn to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 ggem will be big today in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Awesome. Rain on Monday followed by moderating temperatures next week. Spring is almost here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yes, if the elongation of the polar vortex isn't as extreme as the GFS/NAM indicate and a stronger confluence zone remains in place, I could see SNE having a nice overrunning event Mon with mainly wintry precip. However, as Scott and Will have mentioned, it's going to be tough for any of SNE to stay all snow in this type of scenario. The extreme temp. contrasts modeled over the Plains (from 15C at 850 mb over Kansas to -20C over N. Dakota) make me concerned the lead system is likely to really wrap up and cut toward the Lakes, however. Can that interaction work in our favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yes, if the elongation of the polar vortex isn't as extreme as the GFS/NAM indicate and a stronger confluence zone remains in place, I could see SNE having a nice overrunning event Mon with mainly wintry precip. However, as Scott and Will have mentioned, it's going to be tough for any of SNE to stay all snow in this type of scenario. So the Ukie even though it elongated it..still wasn't extreme and kept us mostly frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 We'll have to see how the rest of the UKMET run is. It's only out to 72 hours now. So the Ukie even though it elongated it..still wasn't extreme and kept us mostly frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Awesome. Rain on Monday followed by moderating temperatures next week. Spring is almost here!!! Endless winter. 56 at New Bedford, 52 Boston...nice sunny day. GGEM went way north like the other models, then misses south with storm 2 before temps moderate. Endless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lundberg in touch with reality Eventually, this storm will get pushed out south of southern New England. The European model looks too far north at this juncture, while the NAM looks too slow, and the GFS looks as if it is merging this storm with something else behind it to make one elongated storm that just doesn't make any sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I like where we are with the upcoming threats.. I'm not ready to bang the drum, but I am prepared to tap the bongos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nice day. Warministas really stirring like insects warmed by the sun. Love when the freeze drops them in their tracks. I like the volatility in the models. Also, just stunned and happy to get such a ray of optimism from Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm not ready to bang the drum, but I am prepared to tap the bongos. No,I am not either, Just like where we are at this time of the year for snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lundberg in touch with reality Eventually, this storm will get pushed out south of southern New England. The European model looks too far north at this juncture, while the NAM looks too slow, and the GFS looks as if it is merging this storm with something else behind it to make one elongated storm that just doesn't make any sense to me. The only model from the 12z suite that's underneath us by a margin is the NOGAPS which should be a huge red flag and even it shifted 400 miles west for the same time period at 96 hours. -PNA that'smore substantial than the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The only model from the 12z suite that's underneath us by a margin is the NOGAPS which should be a huge red flag and even it shifted 400 miles west for the same time period at 96 hours. -PNA that'smore substantial than the -NAO. SE New England is not in a good spot for this one..the rest of SNE looks like mostly/all frozen precip..types to TBD as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 SE New England is not in a good spot for this one..the rest of SNE looks like mostly/all frozen precip..types to TBD as we get closer I always wonder why Scott is so pessimistic then I remember where he lives.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 SNE New England is not in a good spot for this one..the rest of NE looks like mostly/all frozen precip..types to TBD as we get closer As depicted right now.... fixed. Hopefully it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yes, if the elongation of the polar vortex isn't as extreme as the GFS/NAM indicate and a stronger confluence zone remains in place, I could see SNE having a nice overrunning event Mon with mainly wintry precip. However, as Scott and Will have mentioned, it's going to be tough for any of SNE to stay all snow in this type of scenario. The extreme temp. contrasts modeled over the Plains (from 15C at 850 mb over Kansas to -20C over N. Dakota) make me concerned the lead system is likely to really wrap up and cut toward the Lakes, however. It's going to be interesting so see how models handle that feature. It's one of those things where models may use it to drive a low over sne on one run, and then go 150 miles south 12 hours later, because the configuration is different. It's just that the pattern favors a solution that might not be entirely snow for sne..and could be quite a mess. Models have really been challenged this year and with it being 4 days out, it's just not worth getting worked up over each run. We'll see what happens, but if I were a sne snow lover I definitely would have my guard up. FWIW the Canadian is also using the energy on the east side of the PV moving across southern Canada, to drive the low across New England. GFS ensembles were a little south of the op, but I would expect that in this type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 UKMET has a nasty cutter - might rain all the way to Caribou in that scenario LOL. On the plus side, its 2nd wave is better defined and further north than the GFS, though it still gets caught in the confluence grinder eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 It's going to be interesting so see how models handle that feature. It's one of those things where models may use it to drive a low over sne on one run, and then go 150 miles south 12 hours later, because the configuration is different. It's just that the pattern favors a solution that might not be entirely snow for sne..and could be quite a mess. Models have really been challenged this year and with it being 4 days out, it's just not worth getting worked up over each run. We'll see what happens, but if I were a sne snow lover I definitely would have my guard up. FWIW the Canadian is also using the energy on the east side of the PV moving across southern Canada, to drive the low across New England. GFS ensembles were a little south of the op, but I would expect that in this type of pattern. Lots of warministas humping the GFS today lol.. In for a rude awakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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