CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not loving that a lot of what lift is available in the mid levels is pretty far south. GFS wise. This is ok. The model is blowing up the lift in the warm sector, but look at this large area of mid level RH. That's indicative of a large area of light to perhaps moderate snow. IMO models sometimes don't show enough love to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks as thought the 12z GFS is heading toward the same old - appears locked into the notion of better -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I am there with you 100% I did mention the shredding going on a few times this morning and last night. Not much of a response from anyone. Here's one of my posts: I did make a post earlier, about how I did want to see it moving ese...indicative of shearing because that always screws eastern areas. I'm not all that concerned about it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 818 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011 VALID 12Z WED FEB 23 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 26 2011 ...OVERNIGHT... RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC COMBINED WITH A POLAR VORTEX MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FAVORS SOUTHEAST RIDGING AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE POLAR VORTEX INTO THE WEST. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN AND 00Z GFS...BUT NOT THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH CLOSES OFF A DEEP LOW OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AND SENDS A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES..RIGHT IN BETWEEN WHERE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A PAIR OF WEAKER CYCLONES. THEREFORE, WILL NOT USE THE 00Z EC THIS PERIOD. Well, apparently I am not the only one that found the GFS a better fit for the overall pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This is ok. The model is blowing up the lift in the warm sector, but look at this large area of mid level RH. That's indicative of a large area of light to perhaps moderate snow. IMO models sometimes don't show enough love to the north. Nice 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 818 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011 VALID 12Z WED FEB 23 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 26 2011 ...OVERNIGHT... RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC COMBINED WITH A POLAR VORTEX MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY FAVORS SOUTHEAST RIDGING AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE POLAR VORTEX INTO THE WEST. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN AND 00Z GFS...BUT NOT THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH CLOSES OFF A DEEP LOW OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AND SENDS A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES..RIGHT IN BETWEEN WHERE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A PAIR OF WEAKER CYCLONES. THEREFORE, WILL NOT USE THE 00Z EC THIS PERIOD. Well, apparently I am not the only one that found the GFS a better fit for the overall pattern going forward. Even the ensembles are not as amped as the 00z euro, so no shock there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like the next pulse of snsh incoming. Mt.Greylock might be the place to be tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wow, HPC goes on in that Prelim to really impugn the ECMWF - don't see that too often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Man, talk about walking a tightrope down here, but in the end looks like an inch or two of snow going to rain, just inland in ct looks great right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Full on Winter with the temp dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Even the ensembles are not as amped as the 00z euro, so no shock there. Agreed, that longer post I also mentioned one of my reasoning was centered around the EC ensembles looking more like the GFS than the determinist EC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice, this run of the GFS appears headed for an overrunning event on the major side of impact - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wow, HPC goes on in that Prelim to really impugn the ECMWF - don't see that too often! Yeah that's a cold solution. Pretty bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So 71 and 94 winter GFS run, was there any doubt it returned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I did make a post earlier, about how I did want to see it moving ese...indicative of shearing because that always screws eastern areas. I'm not all that concerned about it right now. Just saw your post. Yeah some slight adjustments will certainly happen, but this isn't one of those 07-09 SWFE that jumps from NJ to the Mass Pike in 48hrs. I'm not "worried" about suppression with this. More a matter of how amplified the disturbance is, to intensify the overrunning precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 So 71 and 94 winter GFS run, was there any doubt it returned? Ginx, it has truly drilled back in here in impressive fashion. Trees down, snow flyin' , temps dropping, snow in the forecast. Never in doubt for the CoT.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm not completely sold on a colder solution like that. I think the 00z EC was too amped up, but I'm surprised at how far south the progs are. I'm pulling for it, but I'm a little worried about how the west looks. Both warmer and colder solutions are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Just saw your post. Yeah some slight adjustments will certainly happen, but this isn't one of those 07-09 SWFE that jumps from NJ to the Mass Pike in 48hrs. I'm not "worried" about suppression with this. More a matter of how amplified the disturbance is, to intensify the overrunning precip shield. And obviously I meant "didn't want to see it".lol. And yes, I don't see it as the classic swfe from those years either, but I still could see a nw adjustment..but wouldn't be shocked if it moves very little. I would guess the only areas that need to be aware of that, are areas south of PVD-HFD, but it's not like they are in dire straits right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ginx, it has truly drilled back in here in impressive fashion. Trees down, snow flyin' , temps dropping, snow in the forecast. Never in doubt for the CoT.lol With the tremendous cold pool in Canada with seasonal warmth returning to the South there is going to be an extreme amount of volatility and thermoclinical wars, no doubt. Folks can spout teleconnectors, model outcomes etc but whatever comes down as long as this dichotomy exists the potential for explosiveness is nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 With the tremendous cold pool in Canada with seasonal warmth returning to the South there is going to be an extreme amount of volatility and thermoclinical wars, no doubt. Folks can spout teleconnectors, model outcomes etc but whatever comes down as long as this dicotomy exists the potential for explosiveness is nearby. It looks like plenty more chances for snow coming up after this next event, maybe we can build the snowpack up to a pretty decent level again especially for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 With the tremendous cold pool in Canada with seasonal warmth returning to the South there is going to be an extreme amount of volatility and thermoclinical wars, no doubt. Folks can spout teleconnectors, model outcomes etc but whatever comes down as long as this dichotomy exists the potential for explosiveness is nearby. POWDERKEG!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS ensembles are a little warmer than the op, but it's something that I could see as well. It brings the front west of us with a weak wave, but then the front sags south with a couple of more waves ridging along it. I guess I could see something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Canadian has that too....a wave that goes west, but then another wave moves in as the front moves south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Canadian has that too....a wave that goes west, but then another wave moves in as the front moves south. I'm just not sold on the cold solution of the HPC, but we'll see. Certainly has the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm just not sold on the cold solution of the HPC, but we'll see. Certainly has the possibility. Cold the way to go. C'mon, get with the program.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ECMWF weeklies are cold for the 1st half of March: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/45951/computer-model-outlook-through-end-of-winter.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ECMWF weeklies are cold for the 1st half of March: http://www.accuweath...d-of-winter.asp Yeah they look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Euro be buggin' Winds have died here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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