Beyond Winter Intermission

[OKpowdah]

Kinda cool that we're seeing the structures of mid to high level clouds associated with the jet, but their actual level is noticeably lower in the sky ... indicative of the significantly lowered tropopause

[moneypitmike]

I still get Kojak on the retro tv network (on digital over air). LOL A lot of the under 30's here probably have no idea who Telly Savalas is actually....

Who love ya, baby?

[weathafella]

Let's move over here...

[CoastalWx]

You make the call:

That's why i feel this can't come that much farther north, but these lows can sneak to the north last minute....so it's a toss up. I'd be very aware of that if I were say near PVD-HFD on south.

[CoastalWx]

32.1\18

G-50mph !!

I'm out.

Cherry is busted.

[HoarfrostHubb]

That's why i feel this can't come that much farther north, but these lows can sneak to the north last minute....so it's a toss up. I'd be very aware of that if I were say near PVD-HFD on south.

Cute, sneaky lows...

[moneypitmike]

We have 1, possibly 2 advisory snow events incoming and people are fantasizing about each other's hair...

Any hvy hvy damage from today's wind?

1. Innumerous small branches.

2. A stem branch from a 50-year old maple is snapped (not fallen though)

3. A 5" tree down in the woods

4. snowshoe blown down the driveway

Women and children are okay.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

lol. Not part of the plan. Don't want to lose my MoJo. The wind is so strong right now it's a little freaky. I can't imagine what would happen if we ever had a landfalling hurricane with 100mph winds. I'm going to have to let Wiz know we have multiple branches down.

I've often wondered why grown men shave their heads clean. I guess they like looking like convicts or leather Daddies. It's one thing if you just naturally lose your hair but to opt for the Telly Savalas look is beyond me. Long hair is in Kevin, from star NFL players to Rockstars, you're living in the Reagan era.

I don't get the bald thing either. I'd let my hair grow but I'd look like Yani after a few weeks.

We've had some insane winds complete with mini naders on the ocean.

[Logan11]

As far as I'm concerned my hair is just there ....all I care about is keeping it neat. LOL

I'm not interested in preening it and wearing long hair ...or spending my scarce time shaving my head. It's bad enough having to shave my face....

dem there is fightin' words

[Logan11]

I certainly wasn't worried about a whiff south last night after the NAM and Euro. This is a whole different pattern.... Two potential snow events trended way north on us here...the one of Saturday the 5th and the clipper from last Sunday/Monday. I'm still a bit worried this best snow could end up GFL to CON....

That's why i feel this can't come that much farther north, but these lows can sneak to the north last minute....so it's a toss up. I'd be very aware of that if I were say near PVD-HFD on south.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1. Innumerous small branches.

2. A stem branch from a 50-year old maple is snapped (not fallen though)

3. A 5" tree down in the woods

4. snowshoe blown down the driveway

Women and children are okay.

Add my outdoor fireplace cover (round metal dome) blown 30 feet into the woods

Thank good ness everyone is safe... my 2 women went to gymnastics, hope they are ok in the malestrom

[Organizing Low]

I would not be AT ALL shocked if March challenges the general depth peak seen in Jan, and the shaded areas eclipse their Jan levels.

AIT

[ski MRG]

Considering we have 2 guys in our forum (you and Happy valley) that have long hair..that may be one of the most ridiculous things you've ever posted.

Long hair on guys went out in 70's. Rock stars kept the look which is fine.. But 99% of the male population in the world does not have long hair. If you want to look feminine that's your choice..

Lol. You're funny. To each his own. I spent a lot of time playing guitar in bands. Clay Matthews and countless other NFL players that have long hair, they don't seem that feminine to me. I guess you see what you want to see. Oh, I hope you ping.lol

I still get Kojak on the retro tv network (on digital over air). LOL A lot of the under 30's here probably have no idea who Telly Savalas is actually....

Sadly Rick, that is true. Telly was great, thought he was great in "Kelly's Heroes". ( I think that was the name) How do yo think we do Rick, I'm optimistic actually.

[Logan11]

I hope we do pretty well, but let's make sure it doesn't slip further north before banking it..... NAM was like .75" here....

Lol. You're funny. To each his own. I spent a lot of time playing guitar in bands. Clay Matthews and countless other NFL players that have long hair, they don't seem that feminine to me. I guess you see what you want to see. Oh, I hope you ping.lol

Sadly Rick, that is true. Telly was great, thought he was great in "Kelly's Heroes". ( I think that was the name) How do yo think we do Rick, I'm optimistic actually.

[moneypitmike]

Considering we have 2 guys in our forum (you and Happy valley) that have long hair..that may be one of the most ridiculous things you've ever posted.

Long hair on guys went out in 70's. Rock stars kept the look which is fine.. But 99% of the male population in the world does not have long hair. If you want to look feminine that's your choice..

[Logan11]

Useless fact ...but as I recall Telly was Jennifer Aniston's godfather...

Lol. You're funny. To each his own. I spent a lot of time playing guitar in bands. Clay Matthews and countless other NFL players that have long hair, they don't seem that feminine to me. I guess you see what you want to see. Oh, I hope you ping.lol

Sadly Rick, that is true. Telly was great, thought he was great in "Kelly's Heroes". ( I think that was the name) How do yo think we do Rick, I'm optimistic actually.

[moneypitmike]

Lol. You're funny. To each his own. I spent a lot of time playing guitar in bands. Clay Matthews and countless other NFL players that have long hair, they don't seem that feminine to me. I guess you see what you want to see. Oh, I hope you ping.lol

Sadly Rick, that is true. Telly was great, thought he was great in "Kelly's Heroes". ( I think that was the name) How do yo think we do Rick, I'm optimistic actually.

What about "THe Dirty Dozen"?

[ski MRG]

I don't get the bald thing either. I'd let my hair grow but I'd look like Yani after a few weeks.

We've had some insane winds complete with mini naders on the ocean.

Cool, the wind is blowing about as strongly as it ever does here. Very sustained.

I certainly wasn't worried about a whiff south last night after the NAM and Euro. This is a whole different pattern.... Two potential snow events trended way north on us here...the one of Saturday the 5th and the clipper from last Sunday/Monday. I'm still a bit worried this best snow could end up GFL to CON....

Exactly, plenty of time and it wouldn't take much for it to slip. Hate those storms when you just see it slipping away.lol

[CoastalWx]

I certainly wasn't worried about a whiff south last night after the NAM and Euro. This is a whole different pattern.... Two potential snow events trended way north on us here...the one of Saturday the 5th and the clipper from last Sunday/Monday. I'm still a bit worried this best snow could end up GFL to CON....

No, you're good where you are. You won't whiff to the south imo.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Rev Shinehead O'Blizz?

[Typhoon Tip]

Well like I said, I still think most of NH (and SNE) gets in on a light to moderate snowfall. 3-6" for most with a couple pockets of 8" in MA

Actual liq equiv. numbers challenge that outlook east of Berkshire cordillera -

Just for general users/FYI: I have been noticing this about the modeling of this system for the last 2 days worth of runs, from pretty much all guidance types, and that is a tendency to bring the QPF wall to about ALB, and then halving it ...diminishing intensity rather abruptly as it tries to move eastward from that approximate longitude. I suspect the culprit is that pesky confluent nature to the flow in our area, such that as the mid level mechanics slip in they are being damped some. This isn't really being mentioned around ...at least not to my knowledge, but I think if this is brought out and people are made aware, there would be less surprise disappointment.

Just something to be aware of, and also be aware that it is well within the realm of possibility that could take place, and .5 -. 6" QPF in good snow growth from DET-BUF-ALB may be more like .2 to .3" for BOS with less favorable omega into the growth depth of the sounding - again, the latter being because subtle confluence characteristic to the field offers muted mechanics as the system as a whole comes overhead. If so, we barely eek out a plowable event for ORH-FIT-BOS-PVD and the surrounding areas.

That said, I have seen this type of modeling behavior before, where it was "over progged" as to what degree wave interference would effect on lowering available mechanics, just about half the time - I have seen this both ways. The QPF wall just holds together albeit in a smaller geographical circumvallate; it still has a narrowed band of decent DBZ... Point being, the above notice is not a death sentence for this little winter reminder event on Monday.

Afterward: Interesting, here we are with the GGEM/ECMWF/and even NOGAPS, versus the GFS for the general characteristic of the N/A pattern from D4-10. Here's the way I see things...

(For Kevin)

1) The NAO, after a 2 to perhaps 4 day slight negative phase state, surges to nearly +1SD. This is also well presented at both the CDC and CPC nightly progs from last night (when I look at the graphical mean of the GFS ensembles, though, I'd argue that is closer to +3, but that holds less merit when one understands how Empirical Orthogonal Functions are calculated)

2) The PNA is around -2.5SD, but ever so slowly decays over the next 2 weeks. This is an emerging signal. It was subtly hinted 4 days ago, but now a couple of the channels are hitting it a bit harder. CPC's general depiciton shows the members are mop-ending now beyond D7, with at least 2 members now approaching 0SD. However, the total 2 week characteristic is still negative on the whole.

3) The EPO is negative as measured, and this is certainly more representative in the GFS operational, and the ECM ensemble mean curiously enough - despite the deterministic solution appearing less emphatic about the idea of NW Territory mid level heights deposing polar highs into S-SE Canada.

That is key in all this. The anti-GFS runs are apparently keying in on the -PNA/+NAO and just simply do not represent as much -EPO born interferences. In the dailies, the GFS tears off a couple of moments of EPO ridging and as they propagate ESE through Canada, we see episodic polar highs wedging to ~40N. This offers up a good bit of slantwise baroclinic axis in the lower 300 mb of troposphere along the ambient polar boundary. As polarward side vort maxes ripple through, there are periods of overrunning with weaker waves that are tilted vertically, kinking the polar boundary, but ultimately failing to really erode the low level cold.

The GFS has been consistent over the past several cycles with this overall theme - although timing individual impulses in the general synoptic maelstrom is not a-typical. Still, it has been pretty stalwart on Monday's event being colder, with that same pesky attenuation as it comes through (probably still good for 2-5" regionally though), and then another system with a coldish implications nearing this next Friday. All of this because of its conserving more influence off that -EPO.

On the other hand, the other guidance do not bring as much confluence intervals off the EPO hand outs, and as a result, respect the -PNA/+NAO directive of lifting the mean polar boundary a tad N - just enough that offers a kind of cold wave followed by a rain event, followed by a cold wave type transition pattern (definitely a terrible way to end an otherwise wonderful winter).

I could see either camp succeeding, but side slightly in favor of the GFS this time; and the reason I say so despite the consensus being against the operational GFS, is because the ECM ensemble mean is almost a dead-nuts match on the GFS' EPO orientation, and since the GFS EPO seems to be guiding (primarily) these differences, enters the plausibility that the deterministic ECM is simple erratic with its beyond D4 - which that model has been guilty of rather stochastic depictions crossing the D4.5 temporal boundary enough times in the past. There's that, and the ECM was (apparently) too far N with the last 2 systems at D5+ amid this newer pattern we have miserably found ourselves.

I have no stakes in this race at this point. I would be happier personally to see spring erupt in with balmier breezes, snow departure, and reality not to fight the seasonal change but to embrace it for its own native weather offerings. Last night's rather surprise borderline severe thunderstorm break out with hail/graupel mix in the area only adds to that sentiment. Unfortunately though, the weather will never listen to such desires.

[moneypitmike]

Actual liq equiv. numbers challenge that outlook east of Berkshire cordillera -

Just for general users/FYI: I have been noticing this about the modeling of this system for the last 2 days worth of runs, from pretty much all guidance types, and that is a tendency to bring the QPF wall to about ALB, and then halving it ...diminishing intensity rather abruptly as it tries to move eastward from that approximate longitude. I suspect the culprit is that pesky confluent nature to the flow in our area, such that as the mid level mechanics slip in they are being damped some. This isn't really being mentioned around ...at least not to my knowledge, but I think if this is brought out and people are made aware, there would be less surprise disappointment.

Just something to be aware of, and also be aware that it is well within the realm of possibility that could take place, and .5 -. 6" QPF in good snow growth from DET-BUF-ALB may be more like .2 to .3" for BOS with less favorable omega into the growth depth of the sounding - again, the latter being because subtle confluence characteristic to the field offers muted mechanics as the system as a whole comes overhead. If so, we barely eek out a plowable event for ORH-FIT-BOS-PVD and the surrounding areas.

That said, I have seen this type of modeling behavior before, where it was "over progged" as to what degree wave interference would effect on lowering available mechanics, just about half the time - I have seen this both ways. The QPF wall just holds together albeit in a smaller geographical circumvallate; it still has a narrowed band of decent DBZ... Point being, the above notice is not a death sentence for this little winter reminder event on Monday.

Afterward: Interesting, here we are with the GGEM/ECMWF/and even NOGAPS, versus the GFS for the general characteristic of the N/A pattern from D4-10. Here's the way I see things...

(For Kevin)

1) The NAO, after a 2 to perhaps 4 days slight negative phase state, surges to nearly +1SD. This is also well presented at both the CDC and CPC nightly progs from last night (when I look at the graphical mean of the GFS ensembles, though, I'd argue that is closer to +3, but that holds less merit when one understands how Empirical Orthogonal Functions are calculated)

2) The PNA is around -2.5SD, but ever so slowly decays over the next 2 weeks. This is an emerging signal. It was subtly hinted 4 days ago, but not a couple of the channels are hitting it a bit harder. CPC's general depiciton shows the members are mop-ending now beyond D7, with at least 2 members now approaching 0SD. However, the total 2 week characteristic is still negative on the whole.

3) The EPO is negative as measured, and this is certainly more representative in the GFS operational, and the ECM ensemble mean curiously enough - despite the deterministic solution appearing less emphatic about the idea of NW Territory mid level heights deposing polar highs into S-SE Canada.

That is key in all this. The anti-GFS runs are apparently keying in on the -PNA/+NAO and just simply do not represent as much -EPO born interferences. In the dailies, the GFS tears off a couple of moments of EPO ridging and as they propagate ESE through Canada, we see episodic polar highs wedging to ~40N. This offers about a good bit of slantwise baroclinic axis in the lower 300 mb of troposphere alone the ambient polar boundary. As polarward side vort maxes ripple through, their is periods of overrunning with weaker waves that area tilted vertically kinking the polar boundary but ultimately failing to really erode the low level cold.

The GFS has been consistent over the past several cycles with this overall theme - although timing individual impulses in the general synoptic maelstrom is not a-typical. Still, it has been pretty stalwart on Monday's event being colder, with that same pesky attenuation as it comes through (probably still good for 2-5" regionally though), and then another system with a coldish implications nearing this next Friday. All of this because of its conserving more influence off that -EPO.

On the other hand, the other guidance do not bring as much confluence intervals off the EPO hand outs, and as a result, respect the -PNA/+NAO directive of lifting the mean polar boundary a tad N - just enough that offers a kind of cold wave followed by a rain event, followed by a cold wave type transition pattern (definitely a terrible way to end an otherwise wonderful winter).

I could see either camp succeeding, but side slightly in favor of the GFS this time; and the reason I say so despite the consensus being against the operational GFS, is because the ECM ensemble mean is almost a dead-nuts match on the GFS' EPO orientation, and since the GFS EPO seems to be guiding (primarily) these differences, enters the plausibility that the deterministic ECM is simple erratic with its beyond D4 - which that model has been guilty of rather stochastic depictions crossing the D4.5 temporal boundary enough times in the past. There's that, and the ECM was (apparently) too far N with the last 2 systems at D5+ amid this newer pattern we have miserably found ourselves.

I have no stakes in this race at this point. I would be happier personally to see spring erupt in with balmier breezes, snow departure, and reality not to fight the seasonal change but to embrace it for its own native weather offerings. Last night's rather surprise borderline severe thunderstorm break out with hail/graupel mix in the area only adds to that sentiment. Unfortunately though, the weather will never listen to such desires.

Thanks, John. But, I don't pay attention to qpf.

24.0/8

[HoarfrostHubb]

Actual liq equiv. numbers challenge that outlook east of Berkshire cordillera -

Just something to be aware of, and also be aware that it is well within the realm of possibility that could take place, and .5 -. 6" QPF in good snow growth from DET-BUF-ALB may be more like .2 to .3" for BOS with less favorable omega into the growth depth of the sounding - again, the latter being because subtle confluence characteristic to the field offers muted mechanics as the system as a whole comes overhead. If so, we barely eek out a plowable event for ORH-FIT-BOS-PVD and the surrounding areas.

That said, I have seen this type of modeling behavior before, where it was "over progged" as to what degree wave interference would effect on lowering available mechanics, just about half the time - I have seen this both ways. The QPF wall just holds together albeit in a smaller geographical circumvallate; it still has a narrowed band of decent DBZ... Point being, the above notice is not a death sentence for this little winter reminder event on Monday.

...has this been something you have noticed only recently (ie month or so) or including last year, etc.?

Interesting post...

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Not loving that a lot of what lift is available in the mid levels is pretty far south.

GFS wise.

[cpickett79]

well i noticed this on models and was wondering earlier if SW SNE had best shot. but perhaps it is the area just west of there that does best.

but the HPC graphic isn't buying this yet.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GFS went south a little versus the 0z. Going to be a real tight squeeze.

[Typhoon Tip]

Actual liq equiv. numbers challenge that outlook east of Berkshire cordillera -

Just something to be aware of, and also be aware that it is well within the realm of possibility that could take place, and .5 -. 6" QPF in good snow growth from DET-BUF-ALB may be more like .2 to .3" for BOS with less favorable omega into the growth depth of the sounding - again, the latter being because subtle confluence characteristic to the field offers muted mechanics as the system as a whole comes overhead. If so, we barely eek out a plowable event for ORH-FIT-BOS-PVD and the surrounding areas.

That said, I have seen this type of modeling behavior before, where it was "over progged" as to what degree wave interference would effect on lowering available mechanics, just about half the time - I have seen this both ways. The QPF wall just holds together albeit in a smaller geographical circumvallate; it still has a narrowed band of decent DBZ... Point being, the above notice is not a death sentence for this little winter reminder event on Monday.

...has this been something you have noticed only recently (ie month or so) or including last year, etc.?

Interesting post...

Over the years ... Models tend to fail about half the time as to how much confluence will impede on placement and intensity QPF.

"Fail" is tough though, because it is per interval timing-wise. I mean, a model could be wrong for a 4 day outlook as to how much confluence/deformation will impede, but then correct 2 cycles later and be right. That would mean the model failed at D4, but succeed at the D3 outlook - so how the heck does one qualify pass or fail then?

Take the Megalopolis Blizzard of Jan 5-8, 1996. That storm at D4.5 (back in the AVN days) was never supposed to get N of ACY...certainly not LGA, up the Eastern Seaboard. But, by the time it was D2.5, the AVN had roughly ALB-PWM, and that became closer to verification on that one. 10-18" paled in comparison to the MA, but we still got in to the tune of a major event up this way.

That was a different scenario all together, of course. Since then, I haven't seen an overwhelmingly improved spatial handling of confluence in the models, nor the physical handling as system pass into confluence zones in general.

[cpickett79]

GFS went south a little versus the 0z. Going to be a real tight squeeze.

so did 6z nam but then 12z nam bounce back N. and subsequently gave about .40 to my area.

does confluence kill omega?

[moneypitmike]

GFS went south a little versus the 0z. Going to be a real tight squeeze.

I'll get my broom.

[OKpowdah]

Actual liq equiv. numbers challenge that outlook east of Berkshire cordillera -

Just for general users/FYI: I have been noticing this about the modeling of this system for the last 2 days worth of runs, from pretty much all guidance types, and that is a tendency to bring the QPF wall to about ALB, and then halving it ...diminishing intensity rather abruptly as it tries to move eastward from that approximate longitude. I suspect the culprit is that pesky confluent nature to the flow in our area, such that as the mid level mechanics slip in they are being damped some. This isn't really being mentioned around ...at least not to my knowledge, but I think if this is brought out and people are made aware, there would be less surprise disappointment.

Just something to be aware of, and also be aware that it is well within the realm of possibility that could take place, and .5 -. 6" QPF in good snow growth from DET-BUF-ALB may be more like .2 to .3" for BOS with less favorable omega into the growth depth of the sounding - again, the latter being because subtle confluence characteristic to the field offers muted mechanics as the system as a whole comes overhead. If so, we barely eek out a plowable event for ORH-FIT-BOS-PVD and the surrounding areas.

That said, I have seen this type of modeling behavior before, where it was "over progged" as to what degree wave interference would effect on lowering available mechanics, just about half the time - I have seen this both ways. The QPF wall just holds together albeit in a smaller geographical circumvallate; it still has a narrowed band of decent DBZ... Point being, the above notice is not a death sentence for this little winter reminder event on Monday.

I am there with you 100%

I did mention the shredding going on a few times this morning and last night. Not much of a response from anyone.

Here's one of my posts:

The PV lobe makes this situation a little unique, like you said. I'm cautious to bring the SWF disturbance any further north than the GFS prog right now. We could just as well see that lobe trend a little deeper. We pretty much end up with a sheared out mess aloft, and something at the surface that the guys at the HPC might analyze as just a stationary front floating alone. Certainly a mechanism for overrunning precipitation, but definitely a quick hit, and not something I see spitting out any 1in/hr+ rates. I think someone north of the Pike comes away with 8", with a general 3-6" for most of the region.