40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 bastardi not buying what the GFS is selling. It's kind of tough to go against the Euro/NAM when they agree at this range. GFS probably in fantasy land. But we shall see....like I said don't care much at this stage and you and I would probably both agree we're 24 hours from a more clear "solution" although I hate the idea of the euro working so far south. Of course not, because the the NAM and EURO affect the larger portion of the populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It a little skimpier on qpf...looks like 0.30-ish here vs 0.50-0.60" on gfs, but its because it holds back the energy a little more. But regardless, still don't see any reason to waiver from an advisory to low end warning event for much of the region. YES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ray when you say both are incorrect...I'd change that to "all" and we'll be good to go. We'll see how it goes, gorgeous calm night out there right now but it's about to get a lot colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ray when you say both are incorrect...I'd change that to "all" and we'll be good to go. We'll see how it goes, gorgeous calm night out there right now but it's about to get a lot colder. Ok, how about the EURO works, quantitatively, but the GFS is qualitatively better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Now that we are into a more typical La Nina regime, most of these systems have trended north in the last 36 hours. So I'm quite content having a few models a bit south now. Gives some wriggle room. Monday for example turned into a disaster with even Ottawa going to rain. Of course not, because the the NAM and EURO affect the larger portion of the populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It won't be calm for much longer..... The wind is rocking the house here with a moderate snow squall in progress. Ray when you say both are incorrect...I'd change that to "all" and we'll be good to go. We'll see how it goes, gorgeous calm night out there right now but it's about to get a lot colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'll take 3-6" Monday...looks tough for you guys up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'll take 3-6" Monday...looks tough for you guys up north ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ok I think we'll be worrying about flirting with pingers more than a whiff south on the first event before its done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ok BOS gets 3-4" is that funny to you Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Things really flipped toward a more typical La Nina situation about two weeks ago... The first big wake up call was that Saturday low that the models had too far south for us until the last 24 hours. In the end I got an inch of sleet and the all snow was GFL to LEB north. I think we'll be worrying about flirting with pingers more than a whiff south on the first event before its done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Things really flipped toward a more typical La Nina situation about two weeks ago... The first big wake up call was that Saturday low that the models had too far south for us until the last 24 hours. In the end I got an inch of sleet and the all snow was GFL to LEB north. Hey Rick! No wind yet. We will see on this next one but the surpressed solutions.....who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think we'll be worrying about flirting with pingers more than a whiff south on the first event before its done. Agreed....other ideas are funny to me, Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Agreed....other ideas are funny to me, Will. Ugly torching lakes cutter for next weekend on Euro...hopefully its wrong and it ends up on S side of an overrunning gradient...but its a worry. Looks like a decent overrunning event at 216-228h but that is getting into clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I was down around Liberty, NY ...the former Borscht Belt (took the western route up here through the Catskills) when the wind really came in around 8 PM. It was knocking my car around etc...... Hey Rick! No wind yet. We will see on this next one but the surpressed solutions.....who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ugly torching lakes cutter for next weekend on Euro...hopefully its wrong and it ends up on S side of an overrunning gradient...but its a worry. Looks like a decent overrunning event at 216-228h but that is getting into clown range. Been pretty consistent. The Scooter warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Been pretty consistent. The Scooter warmup. I've got mixed feelings about next weekend...I could see it colder like the GFS and ensembles. But the Euro has really amped up that trough and overpowers the -EPO...it would help if we had a slightly -NAO or something, but we don't. But never under estimate the power of a good -EPO...it can often really work wonders in a gradient potential. We'll see. Obviously first things first...lets take care of business for Monday. Hopefully we can get a nice stripe of warning criteria over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I've got mixed feelings about next weekend...I could see it colder like the GFS and ensembles. But the Euro has really amped up that trough and overpowers the -EPO...it would help if we had a slightly -NAO or something, but we don't. But never under estimate the power of a good -EPO...it can often really work wonders in a gradient potential. We'll see. Obviously first things first...lets take care of business for Monday. Hopefully we can get a nice stripe of warning criteria over our area. EURO blows....under amps Mon, then amps nxt wknd into Chi town. GFS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 EURO blows....under amps Mon, then amps nxt wknd into Chi town. GFS FTW Yeah we'll see. I find it funny how little we are really paying attention to the monday event even though it could possibly give us 6"+. More like 3-6" but still. If this was back in December when we were getting screwed and still hadn't had a decent snowfall yet, this thread would probably be lit up for a 3-6" event. But now its just kind of meh. I'm still looking forward to a nice refresher. Get the pack looking good again and if we can get a 7" spot...that would actually make it look pretty prolific again up over 2 feet. I definitely am nervous about another brief torch though late next week. A nasty cutter would do a lot of damage to the pack and we'd probably get another net loss between now and next saturday if a cutter happened despite a much needed reinforcement on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah we'll see. I find it funny how little we are really paying attention to the monday event even though it could possibly give us 6"+. More like 3-6" but still. If this was back in December when we were getting screwed and still hadn't had a decent snowfall yet, this thread would probably be lit up for a 3-6" event. But now its just kind of meh. I'm still looking forward to a nice refresher. Get the pack looking good again and if we can get a 7" spot...that would actually make it look pretty prolific again up over 2 feet. I definitely am nervous about another brief torch though late next week. A nasty cutter would do a lot of damage to the pack and we'd probably get another net loss between now and next saturday if a cutter happened despite a much needed reinforcement on Monday. I will in a day or two, but as you have been harping......it's a tedious set up. I agree....nxt week scares me; after that we are good for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I will in a day or two, but as you have been harping......it's a tedious set up. I agree....nxt week scares me; after that we are good for awhile. Yeah I think so...the EPO gets more dominant in the long range for us because the PNA relaxes just a bit. So I think if we can escape late next week without a torching cutter, we'll be looking great for building the pack up decently again. But hell, even if we do get one, I think we have a good chance to cash in on early March. Hopefully it delievers. I'm so sick of crappy Marches around here. Its usually one of our better months for snow (better than Dec) and we haven't had a huge one in 6 years. We had a good one in '07 but not really what you'd call a big March..that was relegated to NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah I think so...the EPO gets more dominant in the long range for us because the PNA relaxes just a bit. So I think if we can escape late next week without a torching cutter, we'll be looking great for building the pack up decently again. But hell, even if we do get one, I think we have a good chance to cash in on early March. Hopefully it delievers. I'm so sick of crappy Marches around here. Its usually one of our better months for snow (better than Dec) and we haven't had a huge one in 6 years. We had a good one in '07 but not really what you'd call a big March..that was relegated to NNE. March '07 was mainly comprised of one big event....st Paddy's day, when you and I, along with most of interior sne got about 1'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The EUro has consistently had an awfully warm cutter in the D8-10 range for several cycles. Time to focus on this next small event and put the misery out of sight and mind for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The EUro has consistently had an awfully warm cutter in the D8-10 range for several cycles. Time to focus on this next small event and put the misery out of sight and mind for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 March '07 was mainly comprised of one big event....st Paddy's day, when you and I, along with most of interior sne got about 1'. Mar 24-25 gave me 4" of total paste...but yeah, it wasn't like we had events left and right that month. It was mainly St. Pattys day event and then that later one (more elevation event) Seems like yesterday when I took these pics in the Mar 24-25 event but it was nearly 4 years ago now Didn't last long though....3 days later...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 man these winds are cranking tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Mar 24-25 gave me 4" of total paste...but yeah, it wasn't like we had events left and right that month. It was mainly St. Pattys day event and then that later one (more elevation event) Seems like yesterday when I took these pics in the Mar 24-25 event but it was nearly 4 years ago now Didn't last long though....3 days later...lol I had 2" in that....11" in the st Paddy's day and .5" on March 2nd...that was the mnth for me. The St. Paddy's day will always hold a special place in my heart, though because it was my 2nd major event on this board, the first being the vd event....I had to wait an ETERNITY to experience a decent event on here, that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The EUro has consistently had an awfully warm cutter in the D8-10 range for several cycles. Time to focus on this next small event and put the misery out of sight and mind for awhile. The EUro has consistently had an awfully warm cutter in the D8-10 range for several cycles. Time to focus on this next small event and put the misery out of sight and mind for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 03z SREFs came in warmer and juicier than 21z. Looks like 0.35-0.40"-ish for qpf, but its hard to say exactly with the large increments they use. So kind of between the robust GFS and the skimpier NAM. A little more than the Euro. I am cautiously expecting it to trend a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 03z SREFs came in warmer and juicier than 21z. Looks like 0.35-0.40"-ish for qpf, but its hard to say exactly with the large increments they use. So kind of between the robust GFS and the skimpier NAM. A little more than the Euro. I am cautiously expecting it to trend a little better. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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