CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well I think Will hit the nail on the head with modeling chaos. The thoughts that we threw around about the euro being too suppressed definitely have merit. Euro looks like a few to several inches of snow, then dryslot and mix for sne. Maybe a little more at the NH border. The pattern is chaotic with the euro taking energy from the big trough in California and almost phasing it with the PV energy diving se from Canada. This is the danger that I was mentioning about the pattern going forward, with a massive -PNA. It increases the risk for taints. Now, if the PV is just a little stronger, like on the 06z GFS, then it forces it south. Once again 50-100 miles is everything in this pattern. This is the 06z GFS with a more long duration overrunning. IMO and I agree with these arguments from Will, Justin, and Baroclinic Instability..it's not a stable situation so models may show a huge jump from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Still looks like the moderation period may happen later next week. The -NAO block weakens and trough digs over the west coast. That's a pretty good combo right there. However, it's not a complete certainty, but I think it's likely. Too early to determine temps, but if the low goes west...could be mild for sure. Again, the evolution is sort of in question so perhaps it's not quite mild at all. I don't see temps like we'll see today and tomorrow, anyways. Long range looks kind of cold. The NPAC ridge is creating a wall on the west side of the PV, thus creating a -EPO, although not completely ideal. Models also have a ridge over Great Britain which seems to bulge slightly into Greenland. As a result, the PV is held in Canada and even bows se over Labrador, keeping it relatively cool to cold as of now. I'm still just not seeing a big return to the -NAO right now. Maybe all this solar stuff will disturb the PV, but the PV is strong, +QBO, as well as any SW being held at bay seem to argue against a strong return to the -NAO as of now. Maybe it comes back later in March..but I don't see it for the next 2-3 weeks. Besides, the pattern gets blocky naturally in March with shorter wavelengths and -NAO doesn't matter in March like it does in January. We will still have weak -NAO from time to time which is all you really need to keep the polar boundary south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Oh ok..Will's posts seemed a little more gung ho..so I got excited Well like I said I didn't look at it too closely. He definitely may have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Thanks Scooter! You and Will seem to be on the same page regarding a big block not coming back, he went as far to say winter maybe cooked south of TTN. Models have a warm look to them the end of next week for sure. I wonder if this event next week is tainted for all of sne, I think both you and Will pointed that out. I could be wrong but the cold signal that was showing up seems to be fading with time and I wonder if the south coast has seen its last moderate snowfall of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Thanks Scooter! You and Will seem to be on the same page regarding a big block not coming back, he went as far to say winter maybe cooked south of TTN. Models have a warm look to them the end of next week for sure. I wonder if this event next week is tainted for all of sne, I think both you and Will pointed that out. I could be wrong but the cold signal that was showing up seems to be fading with time and I wonder if the south coast has seen its last moderate snowfall of the winter. If euswx was still alive we could do a board analog. Has happened the last year or two where the pattern breaks and it takes weeks for most to get on board with what dt said weeks ago. But anyway I like the up and down patterns which is exactly what we are getting. The nw move on the euro may well continue making winters return wet not white for many in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 If euswx was still alive we could do a board analog. Has happened the last year or two where the pattern breaks and it takes weeks for most to get on board with what dt said weeks ago. But anyway I like the up and down patterns which is exactly what we are getting. The nw move on the euro may well continue making winters return wet not white for many in sne. Its possible, Will certainly hinted at it in the nyc thread last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Thanks Scooter! You and Will seem to be on the same page regarding a big block not coming back, he went as far to say winter maybe cooked south of TTN. Models have a warm look to them the end of next week for sure. I wonder if this event next week is tainted for all of sne, I think both you and Will pointed that out. I could be wrong but the cold signal that was showing up seems to be fading with time and I wonder if the south coast has seen its last moderate snowfall of the winter. Well it looks cold in the 11-15 day for the northeast. Luckily, the Pacific is lending a hand to the pattern and trying to keep things on the colder side for SNE. And just to clarify, when I mean no big -NAO...I'm talking about the blocking we had in Dec and early Jan. This isn't to say that we could have a brief period of weak to moderate blocking like we'll have early next week. That blocking is the reason why this storm on Monday isn't going through Toronto. I joked last week that Steve will shoot me for saying that I didn't think we'll see a big return to blocking, and I still hold those thoughts. I wasn't trying to be bold or anything, but just going by some of the hints in the models. Usually, if big blocking is to show up, we will start seeing hints at the end of the 11-15 day of ridging building in Greenland. This is what happened when the -NAO temporarily weakened in December, and then came back with vengeance after New Years. Over the last week, models have shown solutions where some ridging tries to build, but then the ridging weakens and is replaces with lower heights. We just haven't seen models agree with ridge building over Greenland for many days now. That tells me we may not see blocking return...but I'm careful to use words like "may" here because you can't totally rule it out. Perhaps this past CME from the sun will disturb the PV. Who knows. Also, I talked with Justin a couple of days ago about how I didn't buy the earlier wave coming in Sunday Night. Well, it looks like the euro was right in hinting at a wave coming through, so I was wrong with that. That's why we are careful to say words like "don't think" and "may" because it's irresponsible to sound concrete when discerning models in a pattern like this..lol. I think the first wave may be the real deal for now. It's possible there may be two waves, but the second wave could be weak and way south....nothing of consequence here. I suppose it's possible the wave on Monday gets suppressed, but anytime you have a big trough out west, suppression doesn't come to mind, unless we have the perfect timing of the PV heading se from Hudson Bay and pushing this se. If the 12z runs continue with the first wave, I think we can start to lock that idea in....but the details will still need to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 As far as ptype Monday, euro ensembles were colder, but we know how these systems go. There's a reason why some of us were happy with suppressed solutions..even if they were too suppressed, because the pattern brings them north....usually. GFS may have been right with the -pna pattern bring the low very close to sne...although perhaps not the right wave. Just a very complicated situation, but with it now being Thursday, the 12z runs should clarify things somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well the good thing is at least we can pretty much rule out a rain event in SNE..Even if it's only a snow /taint event..with the weak -NAO that assures this won't cut north or west of us. I have a feeling later next week isn;t nearly as mild as some are portraying. Maybe not cold.....but not the warmth of this week..Normals by then are near 40 anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well the good thing is at least we can pretty much rule out a rain event in SNE..Even if it's only a snow /taint event..with the weak -NAO that assures this won't cut north or west of us. I have a feeling later next week isn;t nearly as mild as some are portraying. Maybe not cold.....but not te warmth of this week..Normals by then are near 40 anyway What are some saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well it looks cold in the 11-15 day for the northeast. Luckily, the Pacific is lending a hand to the pattern and trying to keep things on the colder side for SNE. And just to clarify, when I mean no big -NAO...I'm talking about the blocking we had in Dec and early Jan. This isn't to say that we could have a brief period of weak to moderate blocking like we'll have early next week. That blocking is the reason why this storm on Monday isn't going through Toronto. I joked last week that Steve will shoot me for saying that I didn't think we'll see a big return to blocking, and I still hold those thoughts. I wasn't trying to be bold or anything, but just going by some of the hints in the models. Usually, if big blocking is to show up, we will start seeing hints at the end of the 11-15 day of ridging building in Greenland. This is what happened when the -NAO temporarily weakened in December, and then came back with vengeance after New Years. Over the last week, models have shown solutions where some ridging tries to build, but then the ridging weakens and is replaces with lower heights. We just haven't seen models agree with ridge building over Greenland for many days now. That tells me we may not see blocking return...but I'm careful to use words like "may" here because you can't totally rule it out. Perhaps this past CME from the sun will disturb the PV. Who knows. Also, I talked with Justin a couple of days ago about how I didn't buy the earlier wave coming in Sunday Night. Well, it looks like the euro was right in hinting at a wave coming through, so I was wrong with that. That's why we are careful to say words like "don't think" and "may" because it's irresponsible to sound concrete when discerning models in a pattern like this..lol. I think the first wave may be the real deal for now. It's possible there may be two waves, but the second wave could be weak and way south....nothing of consequence here. I suppose it's possible the wave on Monday gets suppressed, but anytime you have a big trough out west, suppression doesn't come to mind, unless we have the perfect timing of the PV heading se from Hudson Bay and pushing this se. If the 12z runs continue with the first wave, I think we can start to lock that idea in....but the details will still need to be determined. yep. well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 What are some saying? I've just seen some posts saying 50's and stuff like that for late next week. Hopefully it's just 1-2 days of 40ish stuff before it goes below normal. I think the problem is that people expect cold to mean highs in the teens and 20's..and once you're into March that is damn near impossible unless there's precip falling. Cold enough to snow and temps in the low 30's should be what folks are expecting as we head late month and into March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Surprised the wind weenies aren't talking more about the high winds on Saturday..Mixing potential on Saturday looks very good..with full sun and CAA..we should certainly see HWW criteria met over most of SNE. I think 55-60 mph gusts are very reasonable to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Some pretty big changes from 12z to 00z. 12z GFS. 00z GFS. The euro is exactly the opposite. The 12z Euro at hr 108 was south with the PV, thus suppressing the low, but the 00z euro went north with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I've just seen some posts saying 50's and stuff like that for late next week. Hopefully it's just 1-2 days of 40ish stuff before it goes below normal. I think the problem is that people expect cold to mean highs in the teens and 20's..and once you're into March that is damn near impossible unless there's precip falling. Cold enough to snow and temps in the low 30's should be what folks are expecting as we head late month and into March I wouldn't rule out 50 or low 50s, but as of now, I wouldn't forecast it anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The thing that is really complicated, is that the weak low coming through on Monday is getting a boost from the s/w ejecting out of the southwest trough, and also from a spoke of energy coming from the PV in Canada. It's that tug from the energy coming from the PV in Canada that is forcing this a little north, at least imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 As mentioned earlier, it looks like last Monday will be the true torch day, at least up here. Good times in the works next week. I like where we are with the upcoming threats.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 What's the story on the euro text or early graphic product that's out around 1240? Ie ten or twenty minutes earlier than most other services? Is it being fed from overseas or is there a source that just processes the maps faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 As far as ptype Monday, euro ensembles were colder, but we know how these systems go. There's a reason why some of us were happy with suppressed solutions..even if they were too suppressed, because the pattern brings them north....usually. GFS may have been right with the -pna pattern bring the low very close to sne...although perhaps not the right wave. Just a very complicated situation, but with it now being Thursday, the 12z runs should clarify things somewhat. Maybe the NAM can give us a clue as to how things are headed for wave 1. It obviously isn't so great past 48, but where it is at 48 might give a hint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 What's the story on the euro text or early graphic product that's out around 1240? Ie ten or twenty minutes earlier than most other services? Is it being fed from overseas or is there a source that just processes the maps faster? Euro doesn't start running until 12:45pm as far as I know. What's this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Maybe the NAM can give us a clue as to how things are headed for wave 1. It obviously isn't so great past 48, but where it is at 48 might give a hint. NAM is pretty far north right now. I think sne needs to consider the problems of ptypes, regardless of what the NAM or any model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS may be ugly for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The GFS now takes energy from the southwest trough and runs it out ahead of the PV in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The GFS now takes energy from the southwest trough and runs it out ahead of the PV in Canada. Too progressive as usual..garbage..again don't even factor GFS in right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Too progressive as usual..garbage..again don't even factor GFS in right now Well it's the first in the 12z suite so it's early to figure out what it means, but I wouldn't throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Just to illustrate how much volatility there is, look how the 12z NAM shifted the trough near AK west almost 500 miles and amplified it considerably vs. the 0z run - and this is only 48 hours out! That amplification and westward shift is critical because it helps keep the polar vortex further west as well, and allows it to interact more with the southern stream later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well it's the first in the 12z suite so it's early to figure out what it means, but I wouldn't throw it out. What did the GGEM do last nght at 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well it's the first in the 12z suite so it's early to figure out what it means, but I wouldn't throw it out. It's close to our about at that point where we come to the realization a SE Ridge is going to screw us for this first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well, the gfs doesn't exactly show a snowpack regenerator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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