weatherMA Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's a one shot deal. We're not getting both. What looks most likely is the first one is all of SNE shot at 3-6 or 4-7... 2nd one will stay south overall. Euro setup would argue for me qpf than it's generating I know were not getting both. I thought the second storm had more potential to be larger. Either way, I'll take any snow we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The next two threats aren't looking all that hot. Some of you guys were kind of rough on that fella yesterday who's not buying into the snowy conclusion to the winter. Nothing says a vicious return to winter like sunny skies and highs in the 50s and 60s back to back days. Any moment an 1888 type cold outbreak will freeze wooly mamoths in their tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I know were not getting both. I thought the second storm had more potential to be larger. Either way, I'll take any snow we can get. Perhaps Will or someone could outline the twin storms of Dec ...I think it was 1996? There were back to back storms 18 hours apart that dumped a combined 18" or so on interior SNE - it can happen, albeit rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro ensembles seem a little north of the op, for Monday. It's probably best to expect snow to a mix for now. Least snow in CT south coast and more up by the NH border. Probably just minor advisory stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Perhaps Will or someone could outline the twin storms of Dec ...I think it was 1996? There were back to back storms 18 hours apart that dumped a combined 18" or so on interior SNE - it can happen, albeit rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro ensembles seem a little north of the op, for Monday. It's probably best to expect snow to a mix for now. Least snow in CT south coast and more up by the NH border. Probably just minor advisory stuff. 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Perhaps Will or someone could outline the twin storms of Dec ...I think it was 1996? There were back to back storms 18 hours apart that dumped a combined 18" or so on interior SNE - it can happen, albeit rare. Oh, it can certinly happen, its just rare. Heck, it happened as recent as Dec 19-21 2008. Not sure what my total was but there was decent accumulation Friday, 1-3" during the middle period on Saturday, and another snowstorm Sunday. That's what you call a snowy weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's a one shot deal. We're not getting both. What looks most likely is the first one is all of SNE shot at 3-6 or 4-7... 2nd one will stay south overall. Euro setup would argue for me qpf than it's generating NICE its been too beautiful to look at weather, this is great news, torch has been fantastic, but its time for snow now, hopefully lots to cover up this absolutely horrific looking snow. I had no idea 3-6 was even in the cards, its good to look away from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Scott, I tell you what though, Its not that far away from a long duration frozen event if it had more of an east component It looks kind of ugly on the ensembles. I think there is a better than 50/50 shot of it being nasty for sne. I wouldn't lock it in by any means, but I would tell folks to not expect much out of it. Maybe the GFS has a clue, but pattern does support some sort of warmer scenario for sne. In any case, the pattern gets better after later next week. These last few weeks are nothing of a surprise. I think a week or so ago I told Ray we may have a couple of shots for winter wx. One would be Monday, and the other may be whatever happens next week. We turn the corner after next week anyways to something more wintry it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It looks kind of ugly on the ensembles. I think there is a better than 50/50 shot of it being nasty for sne. I wouldn't lock it in by any means, but I would tell folks to not expect much out of it. Maybe the GFS has a clue, but pattern does support some sort of warmer scenario for sne. In any case, the pattern gets better after later next week. These last few weeks are nothing of a surprise. I think a week or so ago I told Ray we may have a couple of shots for winter wx. One would be Monday, and the other may be whatever happens next week. We turn the corner after next week anyways to something more wintry it seems. This recent pattern was delayed a month really, I expected the thaw in Jan where it typically is, As we move along here climo will kick in, I am looking to go out with a bang up here we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro ensembles seem a little north of the op, for Monday. It's probably best to expect snow to a mix for now. Least snow in CT south coast and more up by the NH border. Probably just minor advisory stuff. Euros the only model that is that far north..I'd guess we see it settle south next 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euros the only model that is that far north..I'd guess we see it settle south next 2 days you talking monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Perhaps Will or someone could outline the twin storms of Dec ...I think it was 1996? There were back to back storms 18 hours apart that dumped a combined 18" or so on interior SNE - it can happen, albeit rare. I think there were much bigger back to backs in March in the early 60's around St Patty's day.I think the total in Worcester for both was close to 30 inches. I remember reading about it as a kid but dont remember the exact details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NICE its been too beautiful to look at weather, this is great news, torch has been fantastic, but its time for snow now, hopefully lots to cover up this absolutely horrific looking snow. I had no idea 3-6 was even in the cards, its good to look away from time to time. Blizz might get it, but to me it looks like down here, we're ice to rain for Monday and then 2nd wave misses to the south and then the slow melt resumes Wed-Fri... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 An interesting pattern on the ensembles. Pretty chilly one too. Our NPAC ridge is there (which has been stable as hell...classic Nina ridge). We now have troughing in the GOA that is positively tilted. This causes some downstream ridging over the west....it is weak but just enough to bring some of the cold into sne. The NAO is + (don't expect that to go strongly negative anytime soon), but we also have some ridging, se of Iceland. Normally this isn't all that great, but the PV is extended south into Quebec, and that's a pretty chilly pattern when that happens. I think '92-'93 had this type of cold raging +NAO. There are some subtle hints that the -NAO might try to come back late in the 11-15 day, but its had problems as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Blizz might get it, but to me it looks like down here, we're ice to rain for Monday and then 2nd wave misses to the south and then the slow melt resumes Wed-Fri... Im blown away by how warm it is so far west right now, 61 in pittsburgh 71 in Harrisburg, had to go all the way back to CLeveland to get a 40 something reading its 47 there winds west at 21. Wonder when the cooler air starts to make inroads, looking forward to the winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 you talking monday? Yeah maybe the GFS is close to that track. NAM would be nice. I guess we'll see how it goes. I just got home ... I lost alot of snow today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Snow stake down another 2" to 21". Today is def. the most damaging day....really noticeable.....High on the Davis was 54...around 50, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Snow stake down another 2" to 21". Today is def. the most damaging day....really noticeable.....High on the Davis was 54...around 50, now. Where do you live, in a refrigerator??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Perhaps Will or someone could outline the twin storms of Dec ...I think it was 1996? There were back to back storms 18 hours apart that dumped a combined 18" or so on interior SNE - it can happen, albeit rare. More like 30" in the ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Where do you live, in a refrigerator??? It is what it is.....do you think that I'd lie.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It is what it is.....do you think that I'd lie.... LOL I didn't mean it like that, your hood retains the snow. Better than where I work, although it's more open there. I want to vomit when I look outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 LOL I didn't mean it like that, your hood retains the snow. Better than where I work, although it's more open there. I want to vomit when I look outside. It was 23" last night, so I expected it to be at about 18-20", today......very slow to melt around my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Winter's back biatches..Warministas had their 2 days in the sun..now things are back to normal .SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Starting to look really interesting on the south coast monday night into tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z nam looks like .3-.5 for the Monday event. Not bad if I'm reading it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z nam looks like .3-.5 for the Monday event. Not bad if I'm reading it right. Bouchard on Ch 7 calling for 3-5 except for southern coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It is what it is.....do you think that I'd lie.... It all depends on how much shade you have..I still have 17-19" OTG even though I hit 57.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It all depends on how much shade you have..I still have 17-19" OTG even though I hit 57.7. My wide open suuny area only has 12-15", the northern shady area has about what Ray has. Still impressive after this last week and more to come in a couple days. Lets build her back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 20.5" snowpack in my front yard as of 5 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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