weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Saturday is going to be pretty brutal being outside all day...pretty chilly and pretty windy too...should be fun watching hockey players skate with winds gusting over 30 mph...wonder how that's going to affect the players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 im more worried about this storm missing me to the south then to the north and I live in DC I wouldn't be worried about that where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 wow...0z NAM bufkit at HFD looks pretty damn windy on Saturday...winds gusting to 30-40 kts with gusts over 50 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro makes the front runner wave the main show...and is way north and warmer. Warning criteria snow for the pike and maybe a bit south...but def pike northward. Perhaps some sleet contamination for the southern half of SNE. CNE seems to be the best spot. Shows some icing in CT where it warms too much aloft for snow. Its one wave...and its the front runner wave at 102-114 hours. For BOS-ORH it looks like mostly snow to maybe some sleet at the height. I'm not shocked at this because the long wave pattern has supported some sort of amped up system. Its just that its doing it ahead of the pv rather than behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Models are almost certainly going to struggle with this pv feature. This is classic territory for the models to really have trouble. That thing coming down from N Canada and then at the same time some potent wave in a -PNA pattern....that is a total clash on the models. I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend one way and then violently trend another direction. Its the nature of the setup. I could be wrong and they have it well handled, but I don't feel right about all this stuff with 2 waves, vs 1 wave and one being north or suppressed. It just doesn't look right to me from run to run. We'll see in the next 2-3 days though. Don't forget the Feb 1-2 event where the 2nd wave trended much colder until about 48h out and then it went much warmer/north at the last second. Don't forget the one that turned into a rain event at the last second, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 im more worried about this storm missing me to the south then to the north and I live in DC Euro makes the front runner wave the main show...and is way north and warmer. Warning criteria snow for the pike and maybe a bit south...but def pike northward. Perhaps some sleet contamination for the southern half of SNE. CNE seems to be the best spot. Shows some icing in CT where it warms too much aloft for snow. Its one wave...and its the front runner wave at 102-114 hours. For BOS-ORH it looks like mostly snow to maybe some sleet at the height. I'm not shocked at this because the long wave pattern has supported some sort of amped up system. Its just that its doing it ahead of the pv rather than behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Don't forget the one that turned into a rain event at the last second, either. Yes it did. A bit different setup as this one has better blocking in place (albeit weak)...but its a good point to be made. My gut has always been ptype issues with this one vs suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro makes the front runner wave the main show...and is way north and warmer. Warning criteria snow for the pike and maybe a bit south...but def pike northward. Perhaps some sleet contamination for the southern half of SNE. CNE seems to be the best spot. Shows some icing in CT where it warms too much aloft for snow. Its one wave...and its the front runner wave at 102-114 hours. For BOS-ORH it looks like mostly snow to maybe some sleet at the height. I'm not shocked at this because the long wave pattern has supported some sort of amped up system. Its just that its doing it ahead of the pv rather than behind it. Pretty much the pattern that I, along with quite a few others have been touting. That would be bit more of a robust start, earlier than I had envisioned, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro makes the front runner wave the main show...and is way north and warmer. Warning criteria snow for the pike and maybe a bit south...but def pike northward. Perhaps some sleet contamination for the southern half of SNE. CNE seems to be the best spot. Shows some icing in CT where it warms too much aloft for snow. Its one wave...and its the front runner wave at 102-114 hours. For BOS-ORH it looks like mostly snow to maybe some sleet at the height. I'm not shocked at this because the long wave pattern has supported some sort of amped up system. Its just that its doing it ahead of the pv rather than behind it. The 0Z ECM is horrid for us down here....we need to wait for the second wave so that the confluence can get into place, and that includes Southern CT/RI as well as NYC metro. We just don't have enough blocking developed for the storm if it comes earlier, so we'd be talking about light snow/sleet going over to rain showers, basically a non-event. It would be a typical La Niña pattern with the cold air chasing the storms, as happened a lot in 07-08. This would probably be a good solution for Vermont, however, and I might be up there skiing so not totally unhappy. It seems the models have changed places...first it was the ECM that was suppressed and the GFS had the big storm, now the GFS has moved way south except for a minor event from the first wave, whereas the ECM doesn't break the event into two and makes the system much more amplified. I'd like to get two storms out of this as there's clearly two shortwaves from the breakdown of the western trough, but the baroclinic zone might get depleted if the first system amplifies too much, and then it would be a waste of cold air for the southern half of your region as well as my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yes it did. A bit different setup as this one has better blocking in place (albeit weak)...but its a good point to be made. My gut has always been ptype issues with this one vs suppression. Yea, can't imagine this one ending up mainly rain, but I could def. have plenty of precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The 0Z ECM is horrid for us down here....we need to wait for the second wave so that the confluence can get into place, and that includes Southern CT/RI as well as NYC metro. We just don't have enough blocking developed for the storm if it comes earlier, so we'd be talking about light snow/sleet going over to rain showers, basically a non-event. It would be a typical La Niña pattern with the cold air chasing the storms, as happened a lot in 07-08. This would probably be a good solution for Vermont, however, and I might be up there skiing so not totally unhappy. It seems the models have changed places...first it was the ECM that was suppressed and the GFS had the big storm, now the GFS has moved way south except for a minor event from the first wave, whereas the ECM doesn't break the event into two and makes the system much more amplified. I'd like to get two storms out of this as there's clearly two shortwaves from the breakdown of the western trough, but the baroclinic zone might get depleted if the first system amplifies too much, and then it would be a waste of cold air for the southern half of your region as well as my area. A bunch of us tried telling you that the pattern is fine for our latitude, but not your's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I def. want the one, more amed wave....I'll take my chances at this lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The 0Z ECM is horrid for us down here....we need to wait for the second wave so that the confluence can get into place, and that includes Southern CT/RI as well as NYC metro. We just don't have enough blocking developed for the storm if it comes earlier, so we'd be talking about light snow/sleet going over to rain showers, basically a non-event. It would be a typical La Niña pattern with the cold air chasing the storms, as happened a lot in 07-08. This would probably be a good solution for Vermont, however, and I might be up there skiing so not totally unhappy. It seems the models have changed places...first it was the ECM that was suppressed and the GFS had the big storm, now the GFS has moved way south except for a minor event from the first wave, whereas the ECM doesn't break the event into two and makes the system much more amplified. I'd like to get two storms out of this as there's clearly two shortwaves from the breakdown of the western trough, but the baroclinic zone might get depleted if the first system amplifies too much, and then it would be a waste of cold air for the southern half of your region as well as my area. Its still a long ways to go with the models...we are 4-5 days out. It could still end up south and colder. But my gut has always been north. My gut has been for this to end up a warning event for areas like Ray and I but with some sleet taint and perhaps even rain or freezing taint and CNE doing well (we are on the southern fringes of CNE so makes sense)....and then perhaps a moderation in temps and then a reload for early March where Ray gets his pre-winter call right in a big storm can happen in there somewhere. But this is far from done. I just chastised the Euro only a couple hours ago as being wrong and too suppressed, so it could be wrong here too...but I think the more amped solution makes sense from a larger scale perspective....very '07-'08-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 A bunch of us tried telling you that the pattern is fine for our latitude, but not your's. I've said all along that the pattern is better further north...I don't think it's great for SNE (a lot of places mix on the 0z ECM), but anytime you've got a -PNA with a weak NAO block you're looking at a gradient pattern with SW flow events. The way these storms inevitably work is that I get 1-3" snow then sleet/rain down here while you guys stay mostly snow with some sleet mixing in. I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of those events where the warmth surges forward quickly; we're dealing with a marginal airmass since the heart of the arctic air comes down Saturday and is long gone by the time this system arrives. Its still a long ways to go with the models...we are 4-5 days out. It could still end up south and colder. But my gut has always been north. My gut has been for this to end up a warning event for areas like Ray and I but with some sleet taint and perhaps even rain or freezing taint and CNE doing well (we are on the southern fringes of CNE so makes sense)....and then perhaps a moderation in temps and then a reload for early March where Ray gets his pre-winter call right in a big storm can happen in there somewhere. But this is far from done. I just chastised the Euro only a couple hours ago as being wrong and too suppressed, so it could be wrong here too...but I think the more amped solution makes sense from a larger scale perspective....very '07-'08-esque. The models are really having trouble with the two distinct pieces of energy making up the western trough and the placement of the polar vortex, so we have a ways to go. I'm still hoping to sneak out a decent event in Westchester. I'd think that rather than a moderation in temperatures, we'd see at least a few days of very cold weather following this SW flow event since the polar vortex is building south and delivering some arctic air. Maybe you mean after that? Agree completely that analogs and models suggest big storm chances early-mid March with Canada filling with very cold air and the -PNA neutralizing gradually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I've said all along that the pattern is better further north...I don't think it's great for SNE (a lot of places mix on the 0z ECM), but anytime you've got a -PNA with a weak NAO block you're looking at a gradient pattern with SW flow events. The way these storms inevitably work is that I get 1-3" snow then sleet/rain down here while you guys stay mostly snow with some sleet mixing in. I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of those events where the warmth surges forward quickly; we're dealing with a marginal airmass since the heart of the arctic air comes down Saturday and is long gone by the time this system arrives. The models are really having trouble with the two distinct pieces of energy making up the western trough and the placement of the polar vortex, so we have a ways to go. I'm still hoping to sneak out a decent event in Westchester. I'd think that rather than a moderation in temperatures, we'd see at least a few days of very cold weather following this SW flow event since the polar vortex is building south and delivering some arctic air. Maybe you mean after that? Agree completely that analogs and models suggest big storm chances early-mid March with Canada filling with very cold air and the -PNA neutralizing gradually. Yes, obviously right behind the storm when the pv lobe builds in it will get extremely cold. But toward the end of Feb I could see a moderation. Not a full blown torch, but some milder weather where Ray complains that his new 8" of snow is turning slushy and is getting antsy about a big March event to boost his snow pack to 30"...lol. But we have a long ways to go. This could be a lot of liquid for SNE too, but obviously SNE has a good shot here since there is actually blocking...not none. The blocking is weak, but that's usually good for New England. February 2010 blocking is a no-no for SNE...well it creates possibilities of bad outcomes...it still could have been great here, but we have gone over that many times. But weaker Greenland blocking is very favorable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yes, obviously right behind the storm when the pv lobe builds in it will get extremely cold. But toward the end of Feb I could see a moderation. Not a full blown torch, but some milder weather where Ray complains that his new 8" of snow is turning slushy and is getting antsy about a big March event to boost his snow pack to 30"...lol. But we have a long ways to go. This could be a lot of liquid for SNE too, but obviously SNE has a good shot here since there is actually blocking...not none. The blocking is weak, but that's usually good for New England. February 2010 blocking is a no-no for SNE...well it creates possibilities of bad outcomes...it still could have been great here, but we have gone over that many times. But weaker Greenland blocking is very favorable here. 0z ECM shows very warm conditions in the East for the period you're talking about...big SE ridge. Tonight's Euro was quite a turnaround from 12z...much further north with the first storm and then a big cutter/ridge in the longer range. Hopefully that reestablishes the -NAO for early March and brings the arctic cold from Canada down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Tony Gigi had a good point in his AFD: TWO AREAS THAT NORMALLY INCREASE MODELING ERRORS, CLOSED LOWS IN THE SWRN CONUS AND ENERGY DIVING FROM NORTHERN CANADA ARE BOTH PRESENT IN THE LONG TERM. We've seen both of these typical model difficulties manifesting together with a few events this winter already. I think the main event (the closed low ejecting NE from the SW US Mon night-Tue) is still very much on the table, and agree with Will that two distinct waves are unlikely. It's notable that about 1/4 of the GFS ensemble members keep the SW US system as a cutoff low as it ejects eastward. They generally have a slower progression of the SW US system, and have enough separation with the polar vortex (as it moves east toward Newfoundland) to avoid suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Tony Gigi had a good point in his AFD: TWO AREAS THAT NORMALLY INCREASE MODELING ERRORS, CLOSED LOWS IN THE SWRN CONUS AND ENERGY DIVING FROM NORTHERN CANADA ARE BOTH PRESENT IN THE LONG TERM. We've seen both of these typical model difficulties manifesting together with a few events this winter already. I agree which is why I have been uncomfortable from the get-go in any model solutions verbatim the past 48h and now. I've been primarily relying on my gut viewing the long wave pattern which argues for a northward solution...though you can't just completely ignore the models...esp as we get closer. But at this time range, they can be quite erroneous with those features as Tony said. I'm pegging a ptype problem here...but maybe we get away with mostly snow...ala 2007-2008 in many events. We do have a decent NAO block, albeit not strong. But well placed. So there is a limit as to how far this can go...but its extreme W potential could give us rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 20/18, 00z Euro thickens the plot. The fun and games begin anew early next week. Hoping to see minimal damage today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 20/18, 00z Euro thickens the plot. The fun and games begin anew early next week. Hoping to see minimal damage today and tomorrow. As mentioned earlier, it looks like last Monday will be the true torch day, at least up here. Good times in the works next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 As mentioned earlier, it looks like last Monday will be the true torch day, at least up here. Good times in the works next week. It will be nice to get back into a stormy period. The day goes by faster at work if there are threats to check in on. I'll be glad to get out of the mid-Feb doldrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro makes the front runner wave the main show...and is way north and warmer. Warning criteria snow for the pike and maybe a bit south...but def pike northward. Perhaps some sleet contamination for the southern half of SNE. CNE seems to be the best spot. Shows some icing in CT where it warms too much aloft for snow. Its one wave...and its the front runner wave at 102-114 hours. For BOS-ORH it looks like mostly snow to maybe some sleet at the height. I'm not shocked at this because the long wave pattern has supported some sort of amped up system. Its just that its doing it ahead of the pv rather than behind it. 4-8 here with some sleet? Fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 My daily question for Scooter...were the Euro ensembles colder long range than op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 4-8 here with some sleet? Fine with me i knew this is exactly what you'd say when i saw the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 i knew this is exactly what you'd say when i saw the euro. LOL...thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Gradient pattern with east based NAO and weak blocking in our NAO region through early March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 55-60 mph gusts look likely for Staurday midday into night...Big winds incoming..big big winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 LOL...thoughts?? I don't know I didn't examine the ec in tooooo much detail because we are still like 5 days out. I kind of echo the thoughts posted overnight that this is a pretty volatile setup and will change a lot run to run. Seems pretty clear some energy is going to eject out into the flow but where it goes and how much it can do I wouldn't venture much of a guess right now. That euro run seemed kinda meh for a good chunk of sne with all the good stuff relegated to n ma northward. Looked like a 1 to 5" kind of deal from s to n across sne to me. But it'll likely shift around a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I don't know I didn't examine the ec in tooooo much detail because we are still like 5 days out. I kind of echo the thoughts posted overnight that this is a pretty volatile setup and will change a lot run to run. Seems pretty clear some energy is going to eject out into the flow but where it goes and how much it can do I wouldn't venture much of a guess right now. That euro run seemed kinda meh for a good chunk of sne with all the good stuff relegated to n ma northward. Looked like a 1 to 5" kind of deal from s to n across sne to me. But it'll likely shift around a lot more. Oh ok..Will's posts seemed a little more gung ho..so I got excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 A couple of really really great posts regarding blocking and the upcoming event next week in the nyc thread, posted by Will.....great read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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