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Beyond Winter Intermission


ski MRG

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He is one of the funniest dudes in the world. Carton is the man. if you can't appreciate his sense of humor something is wrong..very very wrong

I am starting to think BIRVING would not be a fun dude to chill with. Carton is off the hook funny, a huge homer but does concede when it falls apart. Great shtick. He loves the weather too, must be a weenie because often he tells of reading weather forecasts that are not standard NWS stuff, LOL he nailed Boxing day, said NYC would be crippled then made Boomer apologize to him for mocking him.

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I think the biggest lesson we will take away from this winter is that the Global numerical models cannot handle a split hemispheric -PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern too well.

Even when the PNA went positive for those 2 weeks the model performance only improved some. Here we have a demonstrative -PNA, similar to middle December yet more ... and the next 10 days of -AO/-NAO (after which they may go positive - if that happens, that's spring!) are already throwing wildly differeing model solutions in the spatial-temporal handling of impulses in a larger scheme that is also showing mass-field discountinuities. This was quite similar to the piss-poor model scores leading into Christmas late last year. It is likely in this large scale continuity issue that is driving these smaller scale modeling irregularities - can't build a roof over a weak foundation so to speak.

Fascinating. There has been mentioned amid some AFDs and HPC for that matter, this is a La Nina versus the AO (assisted along a historic solar minimum, no doubt!) issue playing havoc with the models. But, it would be an interesting discrete explanation.. Merely mentioning it is not really science, though it is intuitively pleasing to the ear to blame two hugely disparate teleconnectors in a tussel for proxy on the nearer term climate characteristic, as being the cause.

In any event ... it would be nice to just pick the model that has the most wintery vibe and run with it (seeing as collectively it appears that the majority voice only cares about snow), but unfortunately, that is a biased, thereofore, meaningless forecast method. The -PNA really really wants to warm us up. Any alleviation of negative polar field index on our latitude and immediately we are having 3 days out of 1 week above 50F across the region. If there were no snow on the ground, believe it or not this would have been plenty enough to drill up garden-bed crookus shoots. For those of you in this for the entertaining value of winter/snow/ (...let's face it, dystopia lust :) ) you are lucky not to have to suffer such an homage to love, harmony, birth, and joy because this glacier is suffocating the seasonal zygote. How can you guys read this paragraph and NOT look in the mirror in shame.

Being the biggest hypocrite on the planet such that I am ...eh, hm, I am just hoping we don't suffer 10 days of could-isms that leave us only rotted in this steadily black hueing snow death, having only thought we were going to recoupe this season toward something truly memorable.

Regarding that "memorability" factor - yes, I can already hear Ray rosining up his bow to fiddle off some clarification retort, but meh, 1995-1996 was more extreme than this. The most snow depth I measure this year to date is 34.5" in Ayer, Massachusetts. Back in the day I lived in Acton, Massachusetts as a bona fide turbo loser, having no life, no girl, no money, living with his parents. College was a bore, too, because I was immature intellectually and did not understand the connection between academic effort and graded results. Mediocrity was self-imposed, though like everyone else in the cultural vapidity called America, I was an avid blamer of the world - ah, to have that epiphany over to what degree of a douche bag one is so deliciously sobering. But I digress...the point was going to be, I was just the sort of guy that would care so deeply what the snow depth was as of January circa 20th. Around that date was just prior to the hell-on-Earth rade by the warm Romans upon the blissfully pieceful joydom that was of having snow up to our azzholes. 40" on the level, which means, that season, so far, beats this one by 6" for central-western Middlesex County in Mass. Now, sure, it is possible that Ayer had less than Acton in 1995-1996; excluding the possibility that some permuation existed eerily backward in time for the sole purpose (if not intent) to make this diatribe even more terrifyingly meaningless, I'm just going to go ahead and assume the two locations, being all of 8 miles apart as the snow flies, were close enough to the same to validate this complaint about 2010-2011.

And it is. I am estimating 24" worth of near misses this year, some of those misses particularly annoying because they were steadfast depicted sometimes for days to be decent hits - only to nuance us up the azz with unexptected disappointments. If we could have even half of those criminal weather behaviors unstolen from our collective mirth in the matter ...back, we would have beaten the 1995-1996 John-centric snow on the ground at a given point in time, record. But no, and such is the plite of those chasing history. There is just the slimmest chance we could still get there. Suppose this granulated kernalized snow pack withstands yesterday's and today's nuclear balm assault and holds sway at 9-12" in the interior; the profile of the next 10 days to 2 weeks should be at or below normal temperatures (thermodynamic thickness - almost forgot this was Meteorology at hand), with perhaps 3 or 4 moderate snow potentials. We could lop 4, 8" events if things were ideal and a little over-performed. 32 - (compaction, seasonal sun migration, and who-knows-what let down) = nah, ...it's too late.

It just more than seems an excercise in futility. For me the this winter entere geriatrics when the PNA slipped negative and the AO abandoned us 10 days ago. The pack just was going to be recessed one way or the other. Sensing the rebirthing warmth of the sun upon one's napes as they amble out of the office to fetch their lunch does not beckon upon one's reminiscence of winter. The profound memories of summer are just as unfathomably deep in the heart, and the draw is as inevitable as this next 10-20 days will be defeated.

I will enjoy whatever results of this winter's desperate battle against its own mortality during the interim, but my spirit for winter has already checked out.

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Can't stand them......get this, the only show that beat out it's competetition was Dale and Holley and guess which show they broke up. :lol:

All politics.

What do you mean "broke up"? I was just listening to them the other day. I know Holley is going on to the big show soon, but I though that was a temp gig.

I like EEI most of the time, but baseball season is my least favorite sports time of the year. 98.5 has it's place, but it's kind of gimmicky sometimes. Save the T&A stuff for something else. Toucher & Rich skits in the morning get a bit annoying and drawn out. Can't stand that guy in the afternoon, I think it's Felger (used to be on EEI all of the time). Sounds like he's got something caught in his throat, or someone is sitting on his chest. Man, I just want to punch him in the stomach to clear that stuff out.

. . . Anyway. Don't know what the temp is right now. I'm afraid to look.

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Sitting in El Camino in garage. Laptop on lap..type longest post in wx history, hit post....turn on igniton, ,, put all windows up... close garage door with electric opener..turn on heat....put on some Pink Floyd..Dark side of the moon... close laptop and put on seat next to self

Close eyes.......

Dude...LOL, comfortably numb playing in the background.

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That second low is slowly edging north. I suppose it's not out of the realm of possibilities that the first low taints and the second low is the more snowier solution. I'm not saying it will happen like that, but just an option.f

I think from ct south the 2nd event is our best bet. Going to have to sarfice the first
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This system first up on the docket is shearing a portion of the vorticity field out ahead of what is converging on a subsume phase scenario. A fragment of the SPV comes down and the two promise to stem-wound a helluva baby as they coitus ...to progessively eastward to invite anyone else in the sheets. At least in this solution... .buuuut, it was also hinted at pretty strongly by the 00z other fellas on the panel, that this better phased result would happen. After a portion of the vorticity shears east and excites either overrunning, or a wave like that...the bulk of the southern dynamics skirts into the lat/lon of the upper MA, inducing said SPV's southward plunge - classic subsume!

Too bad that isn't a earlier -

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