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Beyond Winter Intermission


ski MRG

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Incidentally...what's with the 14 days till spring? You actually enjoy March 4th as a nice spring day most years? Last year March was mild but the snowless March's in recent years have been cold per my memory.

More and more evidence of a good first half of March anyways. I feel pretty good about that.

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Nice model site that will come in handy forecasting next week's events:

http://www.hpc.ncep..../mdd/mddoutput/

It has nice overlays including frontogenesis, freezing lines at various levels, etc. for GFS, NAM and SREF.

Anyway, 3z SREFs have trended south a bit. They string out the low and move it due W-E from OH to just south of LI. Most of SNE stays snow in that scenario as the 850 mb 0C line only makes it into extreme SW CT. However, I would expect a more northerly solution than that.

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I saw the Animal Kingdom discussion going in here last nite. We have alot of Fischer Cats here. In fact on Monday morning one was seen in 2 or 3 of my neighbors yds..They are supposed to be nocturnal..but 2 summers ago I was out on the deck with the kids on a warm summer day eating lunch and one came right by the deck , by the plascape and into the woods. Very scary. those things are vicious

They're a good animal to have around. Fur is warn too, skimrg probably has his fisher thong and cap on now.

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NAM coming in with a faster and further south polar vortex. As a result, it really tightens the temp contrasts and increases frontogenesis as compared to prior runs, with a narrow W-E band of heavy overrunning precip. developing across the lower Great Lakes.

The Mon event could definitely overperform given the factors mentioned above - it's a quick hitter (6-9 hours) but looks like a classic setup for a narrow band of heavy overrunning snow. The main question is how much the system and associated precip. will peter out as it heads east and interacts with the confluence zone over northern New England.

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