Organizing Low Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 32.4\29 damn you cooled off like a mofo what was your high for the day?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 32.4\29 Getting closer... Just watch for the clouds; if they come in, you're screwed. I jumped like 3F in 20 mins when the clouds appeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 damn you cooled off like a mofo what was your high for the day?? 47* 1M above the snowpack, but it was obviously much higher a bit further up.....wx bug hit 60* and is now 36.1\33, while I'm at 32.3\29. The wxbug is atop a local middle school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Getting closer... Just watch for the clouds; if they come in, you're screwed. I jumped like 3F in 20 mins when the clouds appeared. As long as his dewpoint is down near that mark, it wont really matter if he jumps to 35F or even 40F. It won't do much to the snow pack. I'm at 41.5F and the top of the snow pack is frozen again. Clearly because of the layer closest to ground has evap cooling with a dewpoint around 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Getting closer... Just watch for the clouds; if they come in, you're screwed. I jumped like 3F in 20 mins when the clouds appeared. It's over 40 here with practically zero melting at all. The bottom of the hill is around 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's over 40 here with practically zero melting at all. The bottom of the hill is around 32. Yea, the dps are saving the day...not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yea, the dps are saving the day...not a big deal. What was your snow stake reading this evening near the Davis? I had about 23" when I took these pics at around 8-815pm tonight The dewpoins in the low to mid 30s today really kept the melting to just pedestrian. I lost 3" I think...maybe 4" at the most. If we can keep cloud cover tomorrow, then we might get away with a pretty unremarkable reduction in snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 What was your snow stake reading this evening near the Davis? I had about 23" when I took these pics at around 8-815pm tonight http://www.americanw...post__p__478616 The dewpoins in the low to mid 30s today really kept the melting to just pedestrian. I lost 3" I think...maybe 4" at the most. If we can keep cloud cover tomorrow, then we might get away with a pretty unremarkable reduction in snow pack. 22.5" right now. 32.0\29 Snow is crusted over and black ice is present on pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 22.5" right now. 32.0\29 Snow is crusted over and black ice is present on pavement. What are sun exposed areas like? I measured that 23" as an average of 4 measurements. The lowest one I had was 17" and the highest I had was 29". The two in between were near the avg of 23". The sun exposed spots def were taking a hit relative to others but the other areas did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 What are sun exposed areas like? I measured that 23" as an average of 4 measurements. The lowest one I had was 17" and the highest I had was 29". The two in between were near the avg of 23". The sun exposed spots def were taking a hit relative to others but the other areas did not. Stand by.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 17-26.5" is the range. 21.5" is probably a nice mean #, though my stake reads 22.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 31.8\29...I'll probably drop another 1.5" tmw and end up at about a 20" pack.....times are tough. Lost just about exactly 10" off of my peak depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro and GFS are in relatively good agreement through day 5 - first time in several days that has been the case. That increases confidence - though uncertainty for the 2nd event is still high given that the timing of the diving polar vortex makes a huge difference. Both trended toward each other - the ECMWF now has a little more elongation of the polar vortex, while the GFS trended toward less elongation and a stronger confluence zone. Also, Euro ensembles leaning toward 2nd event slightly further north than the op because the polar vortex isn't as far south. All in all, they are in very good agreement with the operational Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well, this is it, starting the day below freezing but it looks like about a 10 hr assault. Still with a nominal snow loss so far we'll come through the final gauntlet just fine. Nice to see we're moving toward better agreement that we'll see accumulating snow here shortly, possibly as early as tomorrow with some upslope activity rolling over the crest. My touring trails are all in great shape and waiting for the refresher. Have to say it's been a very enjoyable Winter thus far and the next 6-8 weeks should seal the deal making this a standout season. Think Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well, this is it, starting the day below freezing but it looks like about a 10 hr assault. Still with a nominal snow loss so far we'll come through the final gauntlet just fine. Nice to see we're moving toward better agreement that we'll see accumulating snow here shortly, possibly as early as tomorrow with some upslope activity rolling over the crest. My touring trails are all in great shape and waiting for the refresher. Have to say it's been a very enjoyable Winter thus far and the next 6-8 weeks should seal the deal making this a standout season. Think Snow. I was walking the dog last night and it was warm....yet the snow was kind of mocking mother nature saying..."you can't melt me....you have to do better..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 I was walking the dog last night and it was warm....yet the snow was kind of mocking mother nature saying..."you can't melt me....you have to do better..." Even at the height of yesterday's warmth the snowpack here was unyielding. IDK Jerry, I really get the feeling we're heading towards a fantastic snowy period over the next few weeks. I've been thinking you are correct that things look good for part deux. One thing I really feel strongly about is a big April snow bomb. The March/April couplet will not disappoint this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 They seemed to own up to it being wild... "An animal shot on a sheep farm in Shelburne last autumn was the first wild gray wolf found in Massachusetts since they were eliminated locally in the 1800s, according to the federal Fish and Wildlife Service -- which did genetic tests to determine the exact lineage of the animal. The body of the wolf, which had killed a number of lambs and sheep in western Franklin County and was slain in October of 2007, was shipped out to a forensic laboratory in Ashland, Oregon, where the DNA testing was done. Originally, officials of the state Division of Fisheries and Wildlife said they believed that the animal most likely escaped from, or was illegally released by, someone who was keeping it unlawfully at home, but that opinion seems to have changed. " A 1/2 milel up the road from me. They thought they were killing a coyote. Oops. Toasty--37.7/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Starting the day off at 40.0/39 . What an awful awful morning. 3-6 looks like the way to go for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Put away the thongs folks, it's back baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Tonights one of those rare nights when you can stand outside and actually feel the refrigerative power of the pack, the face is warm while the lower body feels cold. Shrinkage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I celebrated the warmth by running in shorts today. What an enjoyment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro doesn't look nearly as warm late next week as it did. Maybe 1 or 2 days in the 40's and then cold/snow for the forseeable future? Just for Benchmarkboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro doesn't look nearly as warm late next week as it did. Maybe 1 or 2 days in the 40's and then cold/snow for the forseeable future? Just for Benchmarkboy Evidently getting off to a rocky start hear on American. Starting the day below freezing FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well, this is it, starting the day below freezing but it looks like about a 10 hr assault. Still with a nominal snow loss so far we'll come through the final gauntlet just fine. Nice to see we're moving toward better agreement that we'll see accumulating snow here shortly, possibly as early as tomorrow with some upslope activity rolling over the crest. My touring trails are all in great shape and waiting for the refresher. Have to say it's been a very enjoyable Winter thus far and the next 6-8 weeks should seal the deal making this a standout season. Think Snow. Having stayed above freezing for 20 hours at this point (most of it WELL above freezing), I can't let my enthusiasm for snow cover obscure what will be the obvious. Lots and lots of melting to happen. The forecasted upper 50's will be brutal--regardless of what dewpoints do (though I guess they're gonna stink too). Oh, well. Looks like we might get a couple inches on Monday. Hopefully that will be an appetizer for more substantive in the coming weeks. 37.0/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm slowly increasing confidence that we might have a nice period in the first half of March where we rebuild some of the lost pack....likely won't ever reach our peak again, but we could get a decent amount back...ensembles have been trending more toward a GOA low rather than over the western US and a GOA low would promote some ridging in the W US. Combine that with a weak -NAO and a ton of frigid air in Canada via a -EPO, I'm think we will finally break our streak of rotten early Marches....maybe our first big early March since 2005. Finger crossed. Obviously things can go wrong. With each day I'm feeling better. You outlined the reasons right there, and the evidence has been growing for a pattern that supports at least a fun first half as of now. Weeklies also cooled off with week 3 now a little cooler than normal. Week 4 last week was warmer than normal. -NAO blocking won't be like what we had, but who cares. It's still a decent pattern...at least the way it looks right now. Hopefully it remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 this is a little confusing to me...is it yesterday's just "updated"? THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE AGAIN WAS NOTED IN THE PATH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND OUT TO SEA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EASTWARD OUT TO SEA STAYING SOUTH OF 40 N. THE GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI/MA. THESE ARE RATHER MINOR DIFFERENCES AND SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR EFFECT ON THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I saw the Animal Kingdom discussion going in here last nite. We have alot of Fischer Cats here. In fact on Monday morning one was seen in 2 or 3 of my neighbors yds..They are supposed to be nocturnal..but 2 summers ago I was out on the deck with the kids on a warm summer day eating lunch and one came right by the deck , by the plascape and into the woods. Very scary. those things are vicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I saw the Animal Kingdom discussion going in here last nite. We have alot of Fischer Cats here. In fact on Monday morning one was seen in 2 or 3 of my neighbors yds..They are supposed to be nocturnal..but 2 summers ago I was out on the deck with the kids on a warm summer day eating lunch and one came right by the deck , by the plascape and into the woods. Very scary. those things are vicious They're not very big, though. Intresting screech though. I encountered a big oppossum walking across a field yesterday. Guess it awakened from its hibernation in response to the torch. It sure wasn't finding much food in a snow covered field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 They're not very big, though. I encountered a big oppossum walking across a field yesterday. Guess it awakened from its hibernation in response to the torch. It sure wasn't finding much food in a snow covered field. Yeah they are. They are pretty long. I hear them shrieking occasioanlly during my morning runs and it's frightening. It scares the crap out of me. They must have a home in the woods around here. Not looking good for those of us that wanted it to stay cloudy today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 this is a little confusing to me...is it yesterday's just "updated"? THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE AGAIN WAS NOTED IN THE PATH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND OUT TO SEA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EASTWARD OUT TO SEA STAYING SOUTH OF 40 N. THE GFS HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI/MA. THESE ARE RATHER MINOR DIFFERENCES AND SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR EFFECT ON THE FORECAST. Yeah, the euro is definitely not over the Delmarva..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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