Benchmarkbuoy Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I understand going on hunches.....I did it last season, but I ended up being right (thank god! lol)....if you're going to do that, you have to expect to take sh**......I did. I think the one crucial difference is that he is implying that ALL guidance has been CONSISTENTLY supporting his postulation and that simply is NOT the case. Last year, I didn't do that.....I just conveyed what I thought was going to happen, despite guidance suggesting some late season hope. Oh OK... now I understand...using consistent model runs is sufficient evidence IF the models are forecasting snow. If they are showing what people don't like...such as warmth and rain...do not use them as evidence...ok got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z GFS ensembles are pretty similar to the OP. I think that you and I will get at least a good 3" of snow from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 37/32, Today will get the sap running. The model chaos is very reminiscent of earlier this Winter when each suite offered a new twist. Torch vs. Snowpack, Snowpack FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Oh OK... now I understand...using consistent model runs is sufficient evidence IF the models are forecasting snow. If they are showing what people don't like...such as warmth and rain...do not use them as evidence...ok got it. Dude....you suffer from a rather acute reading compreshension deficiency......the 00z EURO and the 18z GFS show what is a snowy and VERY PLAUSIBLE outcome, here.....couple the fact that most not so snowy soloutions are suppressed with the fact that there exists a relative dearth of blocking and we have a good shot at a significant snow. If the non-snowy soloutions were rainy, then I would be more concerened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Oh OK... now I understand...using consistent model runs is sufficient evidence IF the models are forecasting snow. If they are showing what people don't like...such as warmth and rain...do not use them as evidence...ok got it. the models are not consistently showing a track to the south. WTF are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Big, big spring...BIG spring incoming. Nah, a couple mild days. I know that more snow and cold are in my future and more than likely yours as well. Every year those stricken with an early case of Spring fever are sorely disappointed. I guarantee poor Ryan will get into the Prius one day very soon, shivering and reaching for the heat. (They do have heat in those right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think that you and I will get at least a good 3" of snow from this one. Yeah even if we taint or change to rain, I think we'll see a thump of snow on the front end. Hopefully we can stay all snow though. Still not sure what to think about this whole two wave idea. Euro had it all as one wave last night...still think that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Nah, a couple mild days. I know that more snow and cold are in my future and more than likely yours as well. Every year those stricken with an early case of Spring fever are sorely disappointed. I guarantee poor Ryan will get into the Prius one day very soon, shivering and reaching for the heat. (They do have heat in those right?) I mean big spring as in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Back down to 34 here - so mercifully it looks like we won't have an all night melt down. We'll come out of this with a decent snow pack yet, but putrid and dirty stuff. We need several inches Monday to make things decent again. I have to go down to NYC tomorrow so I guess I should try to enjoy the 60F weather. 37/32, Today will get the sap running. The model chaos is very reminiscent of earlier this Winter when each suite offered a new twist. Torch vs. Snowpack, Snowpack FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Dude....you suffer from a rather acute reading compreshension deficiency......the 00z EURO and the 18z GFS show what is a snowy and VERY PLAUSIBLE outcome, here.....couple the fact that most not so snowy soloutions are suppressed with the fact that there exists a relative dearth of blocking and we have a good shot at a significant snow. If the non-snowy soloutions were rainy, then I would be more concerened. Dude, you're not a doctor, you can't make that diagnosis for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Meanwhile, the euro ensembles are still pretty cold in the 11-15 day. We still have the risk of a milder spell later next week, but then the hammer drops as the -PNA finally relaxes. Hopefully it translates to interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Dude, you're not a doctor, you can't make that diagnosis for real. I have a PHD in tool detection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Back down to 34 here - so mercifully it looks like we won't have an all night melt down. We'll come out of this with a decent snow pack yet, but putrid and dirty stuff. We need several inches Monday to make things decent again. I have to go down to NYC tomorrow so I guess I should try to enjoy the 60F weather. You dont need to go to nyc for that, just stop pretty much anywhere along the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Meanwhile, the euro ensembles are still pretty cold in the 11-15 day. We still have the risk of a milder spell later next week, but then the hammer drops as the -PNA finally relaxes. Hopefully it translates to interesting weather. That is what I was trying to get across to Thickheadedbuoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 38.9\32, after a high of 47*, though I know that it was and is MUCH warmer a bit highe roff of the ground. Wxbug is 50.7\37, after a high of 60*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Meanwhile, the euro ensembles are still pretty cold in the 11-15 day. We still have the risk of a milder spell later next week, but then the hammer drops as the -PNA finally relaxes. Hopefully it translates to interesting weather. The trough sets up more in the GOA in the long range on the EC ensembles....which would promote a bit of ridging in the western US....couple that with all the available arctic air in Canada (E Canada even better), then we have an opportunity for one more good stretch in the first half of March or longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 38.9\32, after a high of 47*, though I know that it was and is MUCH warmer a bit highe roff of the ground. Wxbug is 50.7\37, after a high of 60*. Your protected area is really hanging onto the snow. I noticed even around here, how the more shaded areas are hanging on and melted little. I do see grass in exposed areas, but then some areas probably still have like 15-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 I mean big spring as in snow. Much better, sorry. AWT Back down to 34 here - so mercifully it looks like we won't have an all night melt down. We'll come out of this with a decent snow pack yet, but putrid and dirty stuff. We need several inches Monday to make things decent again. I have to go down to NYC tomorrow so I guess I should try to enjoy the 60F weather. The snowpack was already firming up when I got home. Going out for a nice ski in the moonlight later. Fast track with a high water content surface set up firm. I totally agree, snowpack condensed a little but still quite deep once this nasty warm air is out of here. Very much looking forward to the refresher. Still hopeful we get a decent snowfall. Must be bare ground way down in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Your protected area is really hanging onto the snow. I noticed even around here, how the more shaded areas are hanging on and melted little. I do see grass in exposed areas, but then some areas probably still have like 15-18". That stretch in Jan is the gift that keeps on giving....I'm even enjoying the melt because it's amazing that the pack is displaying such resilience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The trough sets up more in the GOA in the long range on the EC ensembles....which would promote a bit of ridging in the western US....couple that with all the available arctic air in Canada (E Canada even better), then we have an opportunity for one more good stretch in the first half of March or longer. Yeah looks nice. Even the 18z ensembles show some ridging over the southwest. Some troughing over the west would probably be a good thing, as it would provide some disturbances to eject out into the Plains and hopefully give us some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Your protected area is really hanging onto the snow. I noticed even around here, how the more shaded areas are hanging on and melted little. I do see grass in exposed areas, but then some areas probably still have like 15-18". C'mon. Really? You and Phil should easily cash in on your bet with Kevin. Not a very dramatic loss of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 C'mon. Really? You and Phil should easily cash in on your bet with Kevin. Not a very dramatic loss of snow. Well these are full sun torched areas, certainly the exception rather than the rule. I still have a 2-3' drift in my back driveway that I'm going to try and push back tomorrow. Most areas still have quite the snowpack, but the next 24 hours will be an assault around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 not even close to seeing grass here Well these are full sun torched areas, certainly the exception rather than the rule. I still have a 2-3' drift in my back driveway that I'm going to try and push back tomorrow. Most areas still have quite the snowpack, but the next 24 hours will be an assault around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 That stretch in Jan is the gift that keeps on giving....I'm even enjoying the melt because it's amazing that the pack is displaying such resilience. It doesnt even look like I lost much, Im sure it shrunk a little. If I had tonights snowpack any other year in January Id be happy, I guess that goes to show how epic it really was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 not even close to seeing grass here LOL, well you'd know why, if you saw where I am. It's one yard that I always use as a reference. My back area is the total opposite. It doesn't do the area justice, because even the Birving on and off ramps here are snow covered, and the burbs around here have a sh*tload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I have a PHD in tool detection. !! I love this thread. Vim Toot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well these are full sun torched areas, certainly the exception rather than the rule. I still have a 2-3' drift in my back driveway that I'm going to try and push back tomorrow. Most areas still have quite the snowpack, but the next 24 hours will be an assault around here. 34/32, safe here until tomorrow AM, clouds tomorrow will also help. Very little noticeable change here, some of my driveway now has less ice.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 !! I love this thread. Vim Toot Thought of your spaceship this afternoon while riding. The snowmachine is my guilty pleasure. Quick easy access to great backcountry skiing. Backcountry purists turn their noses up but when there's no time to ski in, why not take a rocketship. Lots o'snow in them thar woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 For Kevin. Heavy heavy sleet, while Phil is 33F and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 For Kevin. Heavy heavy sleet, while Phil is 33F and snow. Ugh, 5 days to go so this will definitely change A 6-12 inch scenario for the whole corridor would be the preferred outcome, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.