ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The longest period of benign weather this Winter should come to an end this weekend, what's in the cards beyond? Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 It's gon be a snow flyin, little boys cryin, forky spyin, Kev sanctifyin, DT denyin, weenie pryin, Pete electrifyin, Ginx stupefyin, Ray obsessifyin, Will memorizing, Jerry cialisyin, Mike petrifyin, Tubes spinifyin, Tip vectorizin good time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 It's gon be a snow flyin, little boys cryin, forky spyin, Kev sanctifyin, DT denyin, weenie pryin, Pete electrifyin, Ginx stupefyin, Ray obsessifyin, Will memorizing, Jerry cialisyin, Mike petrifyin, Tubes spinifyin, Tip vectorizin good time! LOL, I see you with a doo rag and a lot of bling. I do think it gets good around these parts before long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I was in Boston all day. Car thermometer which is pretty accurate got to 42F but I was not checking for long stretches. Looks like I topped at 37 IMBY. No appreciable snow melt today, maybe lost an inch from melt and compacting. I'm kind of counting on some clouds in my area to keep damage moderate not major to the snow pack. SW exposures are a given for snow loss so there will be some good loss in places but I am pretty confident we do some rebuilding after the weekend. I think tomorrow is my day to get in a noon date at Berkshire east for the first "spring conditions" of 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 LOL, I see you with a doo rag and a lot of bling. I do think it gets good around these parts before long. Just me testifyin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 nzucker, on 16 February 2011 - 09:28 PM, said: Do you think we stay in a gradient pattern with a -PNA/-EPO leading to SW flow events, or can we get into the snows down here with some bigger coastals after 3/1 as the PNA starts to neutralize? The later, really liking the NAO state change in March and would expect a more neutral PNA, if you look back at Dec we are probably in the period Jerry referred to, of course sensible weather is different but what we do have in our favor is extreme cold nearby to be tapped, Climo for cutoffs in March, and enough of a Nina ridge to really create some volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Not really either way for the PNA, though doesn't look very promising, without much help from convective patterns in the Pacific. BUT if we do see the MJO wave become more coherent in the west Pacific later this month, could see a rise in the PNA by early March. While maintaining a -EPO / neutral to -NAO and VERY cold airmass in Canada ... watch out. HECS threat right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 It's gon be a snow flyin, little boys cryin, forky spyin, Kev sanctifyin, DT denyin, weenie pryin, Pete electrifyin, Ginx stupefyin, Ray obsessifyin, Will memorizing, Jerry cialisyin, Mike petrifyin, Tubes spinifyin, Tip vectorizin good time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 29/22, certainly seems weird for it to be so balmy out after so many nights below zero so far this Winter. Hey Ginx, what was the date you were looking for a big storm back a few months ago? Wasn't it around now? GN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 29/22, certainly seems weird for it to be so balmy out after so many nights below zero so far this Winter. Hey Ginx, what was the date you were looking for a big storm back a few months ago? Wasn't it around now? GN. It actually was colder here a few hours ago, got to 27 now 33 weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 29/22, certainly seems weird for it to be so balmy out after so many nights below zero so far this Winter. Hey Ginx, what was the date you were looking for a big storm back a few months ago? Wasn't it around now? GN. Warmer air is infiltrating the upper levels before it mixes down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 29/22, certainly seems weird for it to be so balmy out after so many nights below zero so far this Winter. Hey Ginx, what was the date you were looking for a big storm back a few months ago? Wasn't it around now? GN. NO HM was looking at next week. I am looking at March 19-22 but am not saying another word until after. I really like the first week of March new moon 4th or so and thats two weeks after this happened. Teleconnection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 LOL. It took me like halfway through to realize that was from Grease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 LOL. It took me like halfway through to realize that was from Grease. Its ELECTRAFYING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I just realized the pic I posted of Korea has the CNH snow hole in the area just north of North Korea, teleconnects well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 something big will happen between march 3rd and the 11th because ill be in florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Both GFS and NAM advertising two good wind events as front passes and then as rapid pressure rise occurs, cold wind chills. GFS has overrunning snows then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Winter cancel uncancel for the MA per the GFS, big big problems for some forecasters end of winter forecasts down there if verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think the suppression idea officially needs to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The pattern is so tedious...the GFS allows a front running wave ahead of the PV on this run to give us a nice little snow event and then suppresses wave #2. I still doubt the idea of two waves. We see this a lot and it usually doesn't happen (though its happened twice this winter, so maybe its a seasonal trend). It should be interesting to watch over the next 48 hours. I already see a lot of people over analyzing the models in other subforums...I think everyone has caught the "disease" of quiet weather over the past 7-10 days and a 100+ hour threat seems like a 3 day threat to everyone. I will bite on the very suppressed PV idea only until I see it consistently for the next several runs. The long wave pattern is really against it on the PAC side so there's definitely a battle going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The pattern is so tedious...the GFS allows a front running wave ahead of the PV on this run to give us a nice little snow event and then suppresses wave #2. I still doubt the idea of two waves. We see this a lot and it usually doesn't happen (though its happened twice this winter, so maybe its a seasonal trend). It should be interesting to watch over the next 48 hours. I already see a lot of people over analyzing the models in other subforums...I think everyone has caught the "disease" of quiet weather over the past 7-10 days and a 100+ hour threat seems like a 3 day threat to everyone. I will bite on the very suppressed PV idea only until I see it consistently for the next several runs. The long wave pattern is really against it on the PAC side so there's definitely a battle going on. I still doubt it, but I think that we can now consider it a realistic possibility, as opposed to simply laughing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The pattern is so tedious...the GFS allows a front running wave ahead of the PV on this run to give us a nice little snow event and then suppresses wave #2. I still doubt the idea of two waves. We see this a lot and it usually doesn't happen (though its happened twice this winter, so maybe its a seasonal trend). It should be interesting to watch over the next 48 hours. I already see a lot of people over analyzing the models in other subforums...I think everyone has caught the "disease" of quiet weather over the past 7-10 days and a 100+ hour threat seems like a 3 day threat to everyone. I will bite on the very suppressed PV idea only until I see it consistently for the next several runs. The long wave pattern is really against it on the PAC side so there's definitely a battle going on. yea I was just posting what it showed. What do you think of the wind ? not crazy high but that a good deal of CAA with some cold wind chills in store, banana hammocks, frisbee cancel and oh nice inversion on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 At least it looks less likely to be a rainer....I think that is the last thing that we would want to see after this impending torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 At least it looks less likely to be a rainer....I think that is the last thing that we would want to see after this impending torch. Look closely at the model temps, you probably just have 50 tickle ur fanny tomorrow then 40s Friday, not really a torch, heckuva way to run a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 At least it looks less likely to be a rainer....I think that is the last thing that we would want to see after this impending torch. Models are almost certainly going to struggle with this pv feature. This is classic territory for the models to really have trouble. That thing coming down from N Canada and then at the same time some potent wave in a -PNA pattern....that is a total clash on the models. I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend one way and then violently trend another direction. Its the nature of the setup. I could be wrong and they have it well handled, but I don't feel right about all this stuff with 2 waves, vs 1 wave and one being north or suppressed. It just doesn't look right to me from run to run. We'll see in the next 2-3 days though. Don't forget the Feb 1-2 event where the 2nd wave trended much colder until about 48h out and then it went much warmer/north at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 im more worried about this storm missing me to the south then to the north and I live in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Models are almost certainly going to struggle with this pv feature. This is classic territory for the models to really have trouble. That thing coming down from N Canada and then at the same time some potent wave in a -PNA pattern....that is a total clash on the models. I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend one way and then violently trend another direction. Its the nature of the setup. I could be wrong and they have it well handled, but I don't feel right about all this stuff with 2 waves, vs 1 wave and one being north or suppressed. It just doesn't look right to me from run to run. We'll see in the next 2-3 days though. Don't forget the Feb 1-2 event where the 2nd wave trended much colder until about 48h out and then it went much warmer/north at the last second. 94 ish I know it is used too much, the 2 wave scenario further north riding the thermocline with just enough PV influence does make some sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 im more worried about this storm missing me to the south then to the north and I live in DC You might want to follow Will on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Models are almost certainly going to struggle with this pv feature. This is classic territory for the models to really have trouble. That thing coming down from N Canada and then at the same time some potent wave in a -PNA pattern....that is a total clash on the models. I wouldn't be surprised to see models trend one way and then violently trend another direction. Its the nature of the setup. I could be wrong and they have it well handled, but I don't feel right about all this stuff with 2 waves, vs 1 wave and one being north or suppressed. It just doesn't look right to me from run to run. We'll see in the next 2-3 days though. Don't forget the Feb 1-2 event where the 2nd wave trended much colder until about 48h out and then it went much warmer/north at the last second. I too am definitely not biting on full blown suppression yet either and that vortex feature will most certainly be difficult for the guidance to handle as well as any embedded S/W's embedded within it. I would not be surprised to see the Euro completely change just as the GFS starts hitting on the Euro idea. SREF may be a bit out of range with that vortex--but they definitely would be far less suppressed and a few would develop a large cyclone as the wave ejects from the inter mountain W. The only other "big" question is the strength/organization of the western trough before ejecting. One thing is for sure--the low level thermal fields are pretty impressive and a lot can happen with small height field config changes,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well at least I am up interested again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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