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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Perfect position to be in on the 96 hour GFS. I'm more interested in what the ECMWF spits out later.

ya. minor wobbles here and there on gfs are expected. not gonna panick that the precip is alitlte south of 0z.

btw...good call on the pattern change. we're gonna have our shots at SN but with the PNA so negative and atlantic not cooperating or bouncing back as quickly as i originally thought, its going to be thread the needle til the end.

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For those that are interested, long range GFS is extremely active. One storm after another. They may not be all snow storms but its going to be an active few weeks. Quite a few cutters with secondary development and perhaps some heavy rain. Reminds me of last March with the parade of closed mid-level lows that moved through the Tennessee River Valey. I know its long range but its nice to see active weather.

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ya. minor wobbles here and there on gfs are expected. not gonna panick that the precip is alitlte south of 0z.

btw...good call on the pattern change. we're gonna have our shots at SN but with the PNA so negative and atlantic not cooperating or bouncing back as quickly as i originally thought, its going to be thread the needle til the end.

It actually might warm up a little towards the end of next week, but the week after that the -PNA will relax and as some have said, the real sustained pattern change comes in the first week of March.

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Euro is cold with the first wave, looks like all snow north of the city, and like the GFS goes south with the second, not bringing any measurable up into the area.

NAO still positive, gradient pattern in place, -PNA....this is all were going to get

Wait and see what the EURO Means say - the GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN has NYC right in the center of the heaviest precip can't go strictly by the OPS runs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12096.gif

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Euro is cold with the first wave, looks like all snow north of the city, and like the GFS goes south with the second, not bringing any measurable up into the area.

NAO still positive, gradient pattern in place, -PNA....this is all were going to get

it brings .10 up to nyc....and no thats not snow just north of nyc on the euro for the first wave....ice...and rain for nyc metro and sw ct.......sleet makes it up to ct blizz...plus we get less the .1 on the first round

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HPC doesn't help much with the details in this discussion ...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

126 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

VALID 12Z MON FEB 21 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 25 2011

MEAN PATTERN OF NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGING AND A MEAN TROF

ALONG THE NOAM WEST COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND

ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST. RELOADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE

PACIFIC RIDGE REINFORCES THE EPAC/WEST COAST TROF KEEPING THE WEST

COOL AND WET WHILE A SERIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTIONS IN THE NRN

STREAM PUSHES EWD ACROSS CANADA AT TIMES INTERACTING WITH SRN

STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTION TO BRING AN EARLY SPRING THERMAL

ROLLER COASTAL RIDE OF COLD INTRUSIONS FOLLOWED BY CONSIDERABLE

WARMING IN THE PLAINS AND EAST.

TODAYS MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SETTLED DOWN WITH TIMING AND

AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES TO BRING VERY GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT.

WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE BLENDED BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF

ALONG WITH SOME ENS MEANS OF BOTH FOR SOME TEMPERING OF DETAILS

THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

12Z GFS MID TO LATE PERIOD HAS A FLATTER FLOW AND LOWER HTS ACROSS

THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND FLATTENS THE RIDGING OVER ERN CANADA

AND CONUS DAYS 6 AND 7 THU/FRI. THIS GOES AGAINST PRIOR MODEL RUNS

AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. MAIN EFFECT HERE IS SUPPRESION OF LOW PRESSURE

EJECTION INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST LATE PERIOD.

NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS FROM MORNING PRELIMS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ENTIRE WEST COAST MON AND TUES AS

AN OUTSIDE SLIDER WHILE AN UPSTREAM DIGGING TROF DROPS SWD AND

AMPLIFIES MID-LATE WEEK OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE OFFSHORE SOCAL

SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW EJECTS INLAND MID WEEK INDUCING SRN PLAINS

LOW PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES

REGION THURS/FRI. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SWD THRU WRN

CANADA INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE EJECTING SFC LOW

HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOW PRESSURE OVER IA/IL EARLY DAY 3 MON WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OFF

THE SRN NEW ENG COAST LATE MONDAY WITH A TRAILING WAVY FRONT WITH

POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVE. THIS SERIES OF LOWS IS CAPPED BY AN

ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WITH VERY COLD AIR NORTHWARD AND A

QUITE MILD AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM. NARROW BAND OF

SNOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. STRONG COLD SURGE PUSHES

SWD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION/SOUTHEAST DAY 4 TUES TO BE FOLLOWED

BY REBOUNDING WARM ADVECTION FLOW AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS

THE SRN PLAINS/CENTRAL AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE EAST.

ROSENSTEIN

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I'm failing to see what's so terrible with that map

whats wrong with the map ??? first of all its impossible to determine where a thin line of 3 -6 inches is going to fall this far out - that stripe of 3 - 6 could be more then 50 miles wrong either way - and who's to say it would be 3 -6 ??? Lets see if the local NWS forecasts this afternoon are similar to his .......

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whats wrong with the map ??? first of all its impossible to determine where a thin line of 3 -6 inches is going to fall this far out - that stripe of 3 - 6 could be more then 50 miles wrong either way - and who's to say it would be 3 -6 ???

it's just a first guess at this point--I know Margusity is a popular punching bag, but give the guy a break on this one :gun_bandana:

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it's just a first guess at this point--I know Margusity is a popular punching bag, but give the guy a break on this one :gun_bandana:

knowing margusity - he will stand by that map till verification time - happened a couple times already this winter......problem with accu weather is nobody really cares much when they are wrong its the NWS that takes all the heat........

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knowing margusity - he will stand by that map till verification time - happened a couple times already this winter......problem with accu weather is nobody really cares much when they are wrong its the NWS that takes all the heat........

If the map verifies-then I'm going to guess that you won't be posting it...LOL. :whistle: FWIW, I think the map is probably going to be close to reality...

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