RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 deff wetter for PHL and its adjecent areas SW and S. but drier N as the confluence is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 You make it sound like it's better then 0z, but it's further south with the precip. 12z 0z Perfect position to be in on the 96 hour GFS. I'm more interested in what the ECMWF spits out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 .5 is just south of us. so like .25 -.5 maybe with good ratios lol. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Perfect position to be in on the 96 hour GFS. I'm more interested in what the ECMWF spits out later. ya. minor wobbles here and there on gfs are expected. not gonna panick that the precip is alitlte south of 0z. btw...good call on the pattern change. we're gonna have our shots at SN but with the PNA so negative and atlantic not cooperating or bouncing back as quickly as i originally thought, its going to be thread the needle til the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Not only is it a bit further south at 12z, but the system as a whole is drier than in the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 For those that are interested, long range GFS is extremely active. One storm after another. They may not be all snow storms but its going to be an active few weeks. Quite a few cutters with secondary development and perhaps some heavy rain. Reminds me of last March with the parade of closed mid-level lows that moved through the Tennessee River Valey. I know its long range but its nice to see active weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 ya. minor wobbles here and there on gfs are expected. not gonna panick that the precip is alitlte south of 0z. btw...good call on the pattern change. we're gonna have our shots at SN but with the PNA so negative and atlantic not cooperating or bouncing back as quickly as i originally thought, its going to be thread the needle til the end. It actually might warm up a little towards the end of next week, but the week after that the -PNA will relax and as some have said, the real sustained pattern change comes in the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM sexond wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 If the second wave can make it far enough north there will be good ratios involved..on to the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 gefs mean is north of operational. Solid .25"-.50" Many of the individual members are .50"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM precip map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 EC DAY 3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 hr 90 light snow has enter nyc...its further south then 00z and allows it to get colder before 2nd wave hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 good hit for phl-baltimore...nyc misses out on the major preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 EC DAY 4, looks like D3 one wave solution on EC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 good hit for phl-baltimore...nyc misses out on the major preciep yea GFS and EURO are similiar in shoving the confluence thus creating the gradient starting around hwy 78/80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 yea GFS and EURO are similiar in shoving the confluence thus creating the gradient starting around hwy 78/80 yeah .10 makes it up to the city.... and .25 makes it to edison...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro is cold with the first wave, looks like all snow north of the city, and like the GFS goes south with the second, not bringing any measurable up into the area. NAO still positive, gradient pattern in place, -PNA....this is all were going to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro is cold with the first wave, looks like all snow north of the city, and like the GFS goes south with the second, not bringing any measurable up into the area. NAO still positive, gradient pattern in place, -PNA....this is all were going to get Wait and see what the EURO Means say - the GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN has NYC right in the center of the heaviest precip can't go strictly by the OPS runs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Euro is cold with the first wave, looks like all snow north of the city, and like the GFS goes south with the second, not bringing any measurable up into the area. NAO still positive, gradient pattern in place, -PNA....this is all were going to get it brings .10 up to nyc....and no thats not snow just north of nyc on the euro for the first wave....ice...and rain for nyc metro and sw ct.......sleet makes it up to ct blizz...plus we get less the .1 on the first round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 HPC doesn't help much with the details in this discussion ... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 126 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011 VALID 12Z MON FEB 21 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 25 2011 MEAN PATTERN OF NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGING AND A MEAN TROF ALONG THE NOAM WEST COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST. RELOADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE PACIFIC RIDGE REINFORCES THE EPAC/WEST COAST TROF KEEPING THE WEST COOL AND WET WHILE A SERIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTIONS IN THE NRN STREAM PUSHES EWD ACROSS CANADA AT TIMES INTERACTING WITH SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTION TO BRING AN EARLY SPRING THERMAL ROLLER COASTAL RIDE OF COLD INTRUSIONS FOLLOWED BY CONSIDERABLE WARMING IN THE PLAINS AND EAST. TODAYS MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SETTLED DOWN WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES TO BRING VERY GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE BLENDED BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ALONG WITH SOME ENS MEANS OF BOTH FOR SOME TEMPERING OF DETAILS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. 12Z GFS MID TO LATE PERIOD HAS A FLATTER FLOW AND LOWER HTS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND FLATTENS THE RIDGING OVER ERN CANADA AND CONUS DAYS 6 AND 7 THU/FRI. THIS GOES AGAINST PRIOR MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. MAIN EFFECT HERE IS SUPPRESION OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTION INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST LATE PERIOD. NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS FROM MORNING PRELIMS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ENTIRE WEST COAST MON AND TUES AS AN OUTSIDE SLIDER WHILE AN UPSTREAM DIGGING TROF DROPS SWD AND AMPLIFIES MID-LATE WEEK OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE OFFSHORE SOCAL SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW EJECTS INLAND MID WEEK INDUCING SRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS/FRI. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SWD THRU WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE EJECTING SFC LOW HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER IA/IL EARLY DAY 3 MON WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OFF THE SRN NEW ENG COAST LATE MONDAY WITH A TRAILING WAVY FRONT WITH POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVE. THIS SERIES OF LOWS IS CAPPED BY AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WITH VERY COLD AIR NORTHWARD AND A QUITE MILD AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM. NARROW BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. STRONG COLD SURGE PUSHES SWD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION/SOUTHEAST DAY 4 TUES TO BE FOLLOWED BY REBOUNDING WARM ADVECTION FLOW AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/CENTRAL AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE EAST. ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Thought everyone would enjoy a good laugh from the clown making this snow map - amazing he is so specific with snow amounts this far out - what model is he hugging ? http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/45956/snow-map-for-both-storms-sunday-to-tuesday.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm failing to see what's so terrible with that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 nothing wrong with the map at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 while we are still 3-4 days the map looks in line. Someone (possibly me) will get screwed by being too far south for the 1st batch and too far north for the 2nd batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm failing to see what's so terrible with that map whats wrong with the map ??? first of all its impossible to determine where a thin line of 3 -6 inches is going to fall this far out - that stripe of 3 - 6 could be more then 50 miles wrong either way - and who's to say it would be 3 -6 ??? Lets see if the local NWS forecasts this afternoon are similar to his ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 whats wrong with the map ??? first of all its impossible to determine where a thin line of 3 -6 inches is going to fall this far out - that stripe of 3 - 6 could be more then 50 miles wrong either way - and who's to say it would be 3 -6 ??? it's just a first guess at this point--I know Margusity is a popular punching bag, but give the guy a break on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 it's just a first guess at this point--I know Margusity is a popular punching bag, but give the guy a break on this one knowing margusity - he will stand by that map till verification time - happened a couple times already this winter......problem with accu weather is nobody really cares much when they are wrong its the NWS that takes all the heat........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 knowing margusity - he will stand by that map till verification time - happened a couple times already this winter......problem with accu weather is nobody really cares much when they are wrong its the NWS that takes all the heat........ If the map verifies-then I'm going to guess that you won't be posting it...LOL. FWIW, I think the map is probably going to be close to reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 18z NAM giving areas S of NYC snow at 84 hours--more to come from the West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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