isnice Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 CMC still completely suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 OT, but is the 57F in CP right now correct? Newark's in the low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 OT, but is the 57F in CP right now correct? Newark's in the low 50s. The latest update from Central Park was 55/42 with fair skies...talk about a torch. It's 45/39 here in Southern Westchester with a few passing clouds floating by, although doubtless snow-covered areas in the woods are much colder. Will be quite a dramatic change when we are tracking imminent snowstorms and wearing heavy jackets next week as temperatures struggle to hit freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Snowstorm at hour 102 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Still snowing through 108 hours. Surface reflection is weak but it looks like .50"+ as snow..less north and more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 EC DAY 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Snowstorm at hour 102 on the Euro What does it show for Baltimore John?, thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 What does it show for Baltimore John?, thanks in advance. Too warm through 102 hours..maybe some light snow on the back end at 108 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Too warm through 102 hours..maybe some light snow on the back end at 108 hrs Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Heat island is really showing up tonight. Several Weather Underground stations in Manhattan are also in the mid 50s. Even in most of Brooklyn/Queens it's in the mid to upper 40s. It's odd - LGA is usually warmer than NYC, but tonight they're running about 8F cooler. Most likely the ocean influence due to S winds earlier in the night helped to cool LGA off. OT, but is the 57F in CP right now correct? Newark's in the low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Evaporational cooling will help out with the 1st wave and perhaps keep the initial burst of precip. as snow. The air mass ahead of it is very dry aloft. Notice how the NAM shows temporary cold advection at 850 mb as the shield of precip. arrives by 12z Mon - that's due to evaporational cooling. Here's the NAM RH profile for LGA - it has 15-30% RH in the 800-950 mb layer just ahead of the precip. arrival on Sun night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Sunday night will be interesting, we will go from 25,000 ft Cirrus OVC at 6 PM with 15 mile visibility to 1/2 vis SN 800 ft stratus OVC right around midnight. Will probably wake up with 3-4 inches of snow Monday morning on Long Island with WAA burst of 5 hour moderate 1/2 mile snowfall. Monday probably turns into a 33 degree drizzle once the WAA ends. Hoping Tuesday trends into a 3-7 inch snow deal with north trending and possibly enough moisture to be injected into the cold air supply. My forecast would be for 2-4 inches of snow Sunday night into Monday followed by cold drizzle as temps go from 25 to 33. For Monday night into Tuesday looks like snow moves in at moderate intensity with temps 20-22 and ratios 15 to 1 for powder snowfall with sufficient cold air to get powder opposed to wet. Mets please comment. For the end of week temps should struggle to 38-40 with Canada getting massive cold supply throughout and a feeble attempt at a cutter that will likely become a Miller B off Cape Cod or Nantucket next Friday. 1050 mb high over North Central Canada will overwhelm all of Canada and northern US in 6-7 days. NYC might just miss next Friday event, but New England could get a 4-8 inch event. This is how I see it. Please grade me on this after we go through the event. It will be fun to see how I do with the tricky pattern. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Sunday night will be interesting, we will go from 25,000 ft Cirrus OVC at 6 PM with 15 mile visibility to 1/2 vis SN 800 ft stratus OVC right around midnight. Will probably wake up with 3-4 inches of snow Monday morning on Long Island with WAA burst of 5 hour moderate 1/2 mile snowfall. Monday probably turns into a 33 degree drizzle once the WAA ends. Hoping Tuesday trends into a 3-7 inch snow deal with north trending and possibly enough moisture to be injected into the cold air supply. My forecast would be for 2-4 inches of snow Sunday night into Monday followed by cold drizzle as temps go from 25 to 33. For Monday night into Tuesday looks like snow moves in at moderate intensity with temps 20-22 and ratios 15 to 1 for powder snowfall with sufficient cold air to get powder opposed to wet. Mets please comment. For the end of week temps should struggle to 38-40 with Canada getting massive cold supply throughout and a feeble attempt at a cutter that will likely become a Miller B off Cape Cod or Nantucket next Friday. 1050 mb high over North Central Canada will overwhelm all of Canada and northern US in 6-7 days. NYC might just miss next Friday event, but New England could get a 4-8 inch event. This is how I see it. Please grade me on this after we go through the event. It will be fun to see how I do with the tricky pattern. Thanks. Comparing the 6Z GFS to the 0Z - this is definetly a thread the needle event for NYC Metro. THe 6Z once again came in colder then the OZ in NYC Metro - the first storm takes a more southerly track and starts as snow and ends as snow - BUT this forces the second storm on the 6Z totally south of NYC a complete miss. 50 to 100 miles makes the difference with both systems...........impossible to predict at 3 - 4 days out with any model used as guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Still lots of uncertainty with the 2nd storm. I'd expect the 1st event (Monday) to overperform in some areas, given the very sharp temperature contrasts and strong frontogenesis. Model QPF seems low given the setup, especially the Euro. The 0z and 6z GFS make more sense. The enhanced snows will probably be in a narrow band and only forecast well by mesoscale models. Could even see near warning criteria snows in some spots. However, as usual with SW flow events where the 850 mb low passes near or north of NYC, the most likely areas to get significant snow are areas well north of NYC, like from Orange County NY eastward toward interior southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Still lots of uncertainty with the 2nd storm. I'd expect the 1st event (Monday) to overperform in some areas, given the very sharp temperature contrasts and strong frontogenesis. Model QPF seems low given the setup, especially the Euro. The 0z and 6z GFS make more sense. The enhanced snows will probably be in a narrow band and only forecast well by mesoscale models. Could even see near warning criteria snows in some spots. However, as usual with SW flow events where the 850 mb low passes near or north of NYC, the most likely areas to get significant snow are areas well north of NYC, like from Orange County NY eastward toward interior southern CT. FWIW the 6Z GFS Means for the 2nd storm are north of the OP - 12 hour Mean Here - http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yes, and HPC has been saying to use the mean. There is the potential to get hit favorably by both waves. FWIW the 6Z GFS Means for the 2nd storm are north of the OP - 12 hour Mean Here - http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Earthlight..... i think there will be some super bands to track over the upper midwest for the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 not much if any front end precip with the first wave on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 not much if any front end precip with the first wave on nam. Barely .10" for NYC area for Sunday event. SNE does very well. 2nd event appears squashed to the south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Barely .10" for NYC area for Sunday event. SNE does very well. 2nd event appears squashed to the south as well. yea 2nd wave looks less impressive. though we are in the extended range of the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 At this range its best to go with a GFS/GEFS/ECMWF comprimise. The NAM is best inside 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 the most likely areas to get significant snow are areas well north of NYC, like from Orange County NY eastward toward interior southern CT. Thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12Z gfs HAS SECOND STORM GIVES 3 TO 5 FOR C. NJ. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12Z gfs HAS SECOND STORM GIVES 3 TO 5 FOR C. NJ. Rossi cold air will help ratios rise too. although timing will be key since we dont confluence completely crushing the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 cold air will help ratios rise too. although timing will be key since we dont confluence completely crushing the wave. On my droid can u give me qpf for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Still lots of uncertainty with the 2nd storm. I'd expect the 1st event (Monday) to overperform in some areas, given the very sharp temperature contrasts and strong frontogenesis. Model QPF seems low given the setup, especially the Euro. The 0z and 6z GFS make more sense. The enhanced snows will probably be in a narrow band and only forecast well by mesoscale models. Could even see near warning criteria snows in some spots. However, as usual with SW flow events where the 850 mb low passes near or north of NYC, the most likely areas to get significant snow are areas well north of NYC, like from Orange County NY eastward toward interior southern CT. More interested in the second wave, since the first one doesnt look to be a big deal-- hopefully they both trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 cold air will help ratios rise too. although timing will be key since we dont confluence completely crushing the wave. Initially some of the snow will melt on contact though I would think as the ground isn't as cold as it was earlier in winter. Still a solid 2-4 inch type event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12Z gfs HAS SECOND STORM GIVES 3 TO 5 FOR C. NJ. Rossi You make it sound like it's better then 0z, but it's further south with the precip. 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 YH-- we just need like a 25-50 mile trend.... in the other direction lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 On my droid can u give me qpf for the area .5 is just south of us. so like .25 -.5 maybe with good ratios lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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