Manny Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 If this storm can move north a bit, man...i'd be back in this in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 To tell you the truth I think KNYC will probaly break the record when the dust clears...at 57.7"...record is 75.6"...so they need an even 18.0". The Park will certainly finish with better than 1.6" for February and they are overdue for a good March... Math is a little off. 18.2" to break the record, but I'm not worried about 0.2", NYC always manages to get than extra couple of tenths to break records. Being overdue for a good march won't make it snow, but if the pattern will repeat itself, gotta like the chances for one more 8+ event in March. Really? 57.7" + 18.0" = 75.7" I took up math When I went to school It helped me count the money I lost When I shot pool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 In March, 1956. it received a total of 25.6" on the 18th(19.4") and 19th(6.2") and a total of 34.4" for the month. Wow, was that all one storm? So I guess that was 26 inches or so from that event. Man, how nice would it be to get the strong nina 1955-56 scenario to finally work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 In March, 1956. it received a total of 25.6" on the 18th(19.4") and 19th(6.2") and a total of 34.4" for the month. Newark NJ got 26" for the March 1956 month, and 18.2" on March 18-19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Newark NJ got 26" for the March 1956 month, and 18.2" on March 18-19th. If a storm shows up on the guidance on that date, we'll call it the new Chris L storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Really? 57.7" + 18.0" = 75.7" I'm tired. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 We wont know the orientation of the PV for a while and that will make or break this storm. Does it push south just in time to kill the second wave, or does it spin up perfectly like the Euro shows and give us 2 solid moderate events? The pacific is going to be crap, we all know that, so if the PV screws up were lost on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 A lot of optimistic predictions in here regarding this year vs 1995-96. I honestly can't see how we get a storm comparable in magnitude to the December blizzard w/ a neutral to positive AO, NAO, and negative PNA likely for the next 2-3 weeks. I'm not seeing any signs (at least yet) of a major block returning. Maybe we'll see the severe -NAO resume just in time to ruin spring, from late march through April. If we break the 95-96 record, we're probably going to need a series of weaker SECS events over the course of the next month. I can see that happening. But a MECS or greater w/ the current global regime I'd say is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Srefs came south with 1st wave. 850's and surface are well south into southern jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 confluence looks be trending stronger for the first wave. been alot of back and forth but a warm solution ie all rain is becoming less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looking over the March 1888 map, it looks like there's a report of 29" from the Babylon south shore area. If memory serves, there was also a storm in the 1950s in March that dumped 29" in Babylon, either March 1956 or March 1958 I think. So it's happened more than once, even that late in the season. The Babylon observer (from the mid 20th century) was prone to fits of exageration that would make some of the weenies here blush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 yuck. gfs warms quickly with first wave. second wave looks warm too, ie more north. less confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 yuck. gfs warms quickly with first wave. second wave looks warm too, ie more north. less confluence. Confluence wins out...its further north a bit this run with the 2nd wave....gives cnj and phl 4-8...... edit: its plenty cold as the departing storm pulls down colder air for us...hr 108 prob mid 20's and mod snow for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Confluence wins out...its further north a bit this run with the 2nd wave....gives cnj and phl 4-8...... YES... looks like the timing is somewhat perfect here. the waves are super close but that delays the confluence a bit for the 2nd wave, which allows it to come more north. but it arrives in time to supply cold air for SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Confluence wins out...its further north a bit this run with the 2nd wave....gives cnj and phl 4-8...... edit: its plenty cold as the departing storm pulls down colder air for us...hr 108 prob mid 20's and mod snow for phl The north trend is starting....looks as if measurable gets up to about Staten Island on the 0z GFS. Still like where I'm sitting for this second part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 yuck. gfs warms quickly with first wave. second wave looks warm too, ie more north. less confluence. You're surprised? Look at where the surface low is. It passes just to the north of Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 To me the first wave is nothing more then some snow/sleet over to light rain...the 2nd wave is our main show....we dont want the first wave to go to far north and leave us in a warm sector......but further south we keeps the 2nd wave away from our area....ala 18z gfs........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 You're surprised? Look at where the surface low is. It passes just to the north of Long Island... thought there would be more CAD...thus fizzling out the strength of the surface low while shoving it SE/E. but not the case verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The 56 march storms are legendary in my house growing up my parents were married st .paddys day that year see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 To me the first wave is nothing more then some snow/sleet over to light rain...the 2nd wave is our main show....we dont want the first wave to go to far north and leave us in a warm sector......but further south we keeps the 2nd wave away from our area....ala 18z gfs........ Exactly. If you want a good show out of the second wave, you need that first wave to pass right around the latitude of Hartford. Will you be up for the Euro tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The north trend is starting....looks as if measurable gets up to about Staten Island on the 0z GFS. Still like where I'm sitting for this second part of the storm. I dont think we have seen a real trend with the 2nd wave yet....seems as if we are going to have to sepreate waves.....as the 00z euro last night kept it as one.......granted these tend to trend north....but its all about timing and where the pv sets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 thought there would be more CAD...thus fizzling out the strength of the surface low while shoving it SE/E. but not the case verbatim. It doesn't start getting colder until the PV builds south from Maine, and that's not until the second wave of the storm. You can see from this 500mb map that the PV is building the lower heights into the Northeast; at this time, the energy for the first wave has already moved offshore while the second system's vorticity is sitting over the Ohio Valley. Thus, it's the second wave that is being affected by the confluence...I don't think this is so much a CAD situation (with cold air at the surface opposing WAA at the mid-levels)...it's more that the storm happens to occur when the cold polar low comes down, talking about the second system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I dont think we have seen a real trend with the 2nd wave yet....seems as if we are going to have to sepreate waves.....as the 00z euro last night kept it as one.......granted these tend to trend north....but its all about timing and where the pv sets... I agree it's not a huge trend, but the GFS definitely trended north and faster with the second wave.... Here was 12z with the low exiting off the NC/VA border at 120 hours: 0z has the wave off the Delmarva at 108 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The 56 march storms are legendary in my house growing up my parents were married st .paddys day that year see ya. That's very nice, Mulen. A St Paddy's wedding is pretty cool, plus 1950s were the best for music and movies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I agree it's not a huge trend, but the GFS definitely trended north and faster with the second wave.... Here was 12z with the low exiting off the NC/VA border at 120 hours: 0z has the wave off the Delmarva at 108 hours: Very nice post nate......it seems as if it trended a bit more robust with it also.....we really need(as isnice said also) the first wave to give us some frozen-over to rain and give ur buddies in sne 3-6......while we wait for the 2nd wave.....cant count on ratios this far out but temps would be plenty cold per gfs and euro during snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I just don't think the PV is in place enough to keep the first wave from changing many over with the WAA from the system moving to our north or directly over us. However, who really knows given that the models have really struggled with the timing of the ejection of each wave as well as the orientation of the PV in Quebec. However, the 0z NAM does show that there's enough cold air in place to start much of the NYC metro as snow with the first wave: Here in the NW suburbs, I'm hoping to go 2-4" snow front-end dump-->drizzle on the 1st wave and then see a significant north trend for the 2nd system and get some nice powder snows to reform the glacier when combined with the slop from the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 the gfs gets .10 up to nyc on the 2nd wave and .25 up to earthlight.......Baltimore and mason dixon line gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 cant count on ratios this far out but temps would be plenty cold per gfs and euro during snow Tuesday would be frigid if the GFS is correct...850s are like -14C at midday with snow falling under a thick overcast. You literally go from places approaching 70F today/tomorrow to some of us struggling to make mid 20s if GFS is right. Would be ridiculous radiational cooling Tuesday night and Wednesday night too if we get this snowfall. Ridiculously fast changes in the weather. I'm gonna tell you one thing folks: that PV means business and is going to bring winter back in a hurry. HWW for strong NWlies Saturday with plummeting temps then snow and cold coming early in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 the gfs gets .10 up to nyc on the 2nd wave and .25 up to earthlight.......Baltimore and mason dixon line gets crushed shout out ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The storm in the longer range might be too warm for NYC metro with the SE ridge pumping again, but the cold air source to the North has been trending more impressive lately in the Day 7 time period...look at that 1051mb high in NW Canada...there's a lot of low level cold air on the map with -10C 2m temps in NYC and -20C 2m temps down to WY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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