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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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JMA was also very bad with the Feb 8 storm even inside of 36 hours, showing a bomb much closer to the coast than any other model (aside from the GEM) and giving around 1" QPF for NYC/LI when only about 0.2" verified.

Nogaps has .25" of snow on Sunday and then about .50" of snow on Tuesday. JMA, is a mix for Sunday and .25"-.50" of snow for Tuesday.

JMA was atrocious with the last event, Feb. 1st.

48 hours before the event it had 1" of liquid as all snow, while every other model was an inland cutter and rain.

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Well, then you better hope for some snow next week.

Want to guess how many seasons had 19" after February?

I think #1 is out of reach as well. I've been thinking 65-70" should do it since the initial pattern turnaround after the 2/1-2/2 event. With this event, hard to say right now, but a consolidated enough wave tracking favorably for us could give us a decent event (6" or so?). I think it's slightly more likely it gets sheared south too far.

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I think #1 is out of reach as well. I've been thinking 65-70" should do it since the initial pattern turnaround after the 2/1-2/2 event. With this event, hard to say right now, but a consolidated enough wave tracking favorably for us could give us a decent event (6" or so?). I think it's slightly more likely it gets sheared south too far.

IF we get to 70, then all we need is 6" to break it, IMO, that can happen if it goes well..

The record is 75.6"...

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18z GFS trended south with the 1st wave and is still south with the 2nd wave. The 2nd wave exits just north of hatteras.

18z GFS is a nightmare for the area. 1st wave goes north gives S NE 2-4" and the 2nd wave is very strong and gives PHl south a 6-12" storm. Leaving us in the middle.

Hopefully this is not the exact end scenario.

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I think #1 is out of reach as well. I've been thinking 65-70" should do it since the initial pattern turnaround after the 2/1-2/2 event. With this event, hard to say right now, but a consolidated enough wave tracking favorably for us could give us a decent event (6" or so?). I think it's slightly more likely it gets sheared south too far.

We need a 1996 type March-April run, its possible. Ninas are known for being great late.

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18z GFS is a nightmare for the area. 1st wave goes north gives S NE 2-4" and the 2nd wave is very strong and gives PHl south a 6-12" storm. Leaving us in the middle.

Hopefully this is not the exact end scenario.

SNE can have the first one, I want the second one. :thumbsup:

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18z GFS is a nightmare for the area. 1st wave goes north gives S NE 2-4" and the 2nd wave is very strong and gives PHl south a 6-12" storm. Leaving us in the middle.

Hopefully this is not the exact end scenario.

i probly should add that its 5 days away and we have seen entire synoptic setups change in 3 days.

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i probly should add that its 5 days away and we have seen entire synoptic setups change in 3 days.

who wants to be in the bulls eye - 5 days out on the GFS ? Anyways climatology favors this trending north and to get NYC metro into the accumulating snows only has to trend north 50 miles - no way this run of the GFS is the one that verifies...

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We need a 1996 type March-April run, its possible. Ninas are known for being great late.

I agree, but the kind of "great" to give Central Park another 20" is unlikely, IMO. I think we go back to a pattern somewhat resembling late Dec-Jan by the end of the month-the MJO looks like it could be favorable for us and there could be another blocking episode due to the fact that these often repeat themselves at least once later in the winter if the winter starts out blocky. But given how we'll be going into March by then, it's more likely than not that we get maybe one more good snow event then that's it. But this winter has already defied any and all expectation, so it's obviously hard to nail something down now.

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I agree, but the kind of "great" to give Central Park another 20" is unlikely, IMO. I think we go back to a pattern somewhat resembling late Dec-Jan by the end of the month-the MJO looks like it could be favorable for us and there could be another blocking episode due to the fact that these often repeat themselves at least once later in the winter if the winter starts out blocky. But given how we'll be going into March by then, it's more likely than not that we get maybe one more good snow event then that's it. But this winter has already defied any and all expectation, so it's obviously hard to nail something down now.

I don't think anyone can honestly make any statistically significant prediction today as to whether Central Park will make #1....

1)There's two storms/shortwaves for next week, either of which could give snow, but particularly probable with the colder second wave.

2)All Central Park needs is one storm to break the record. Even if we get 0" this week, you just need a good pattern for a couple of days to break it.

3) We've been running 1 HECS/month in the last couple of winters.

Against:

1) It's late February and NYC doesn't average that much more snow.

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I just want the 7" we need to move into 2nd place all time. I think 1st is out of reach.

To tell you the truth I think KNYC will probaly break the record when the dust clears...at 57.7"...record is 75.6"...so they need an even 18.0". The Park will certainly finish with better than 1.6" for February and they are overdue for a good March...

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To tell you the truth I think KNYC will probaly break the record when the dust clears...at 57.7"...record is 75.6"...so they need an even 18.0". The Park will certainly finish with better than 1.6" for February and they are overdue for a good March...

Of all people, William is feeling good about the record broken. To me, this is a superb sign for us all.

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I agree, but the kind of "great" to give Central Park another 20" is unlikely, IMO. I think we go back to a pattern somewhat resembling late Dec-Jan by the end of the month-the MJO looks like it could be favorable for us and there could be another blocking episode due to the fact that these often repeat themselves at least once later in the winter if the winter starts out blocky. But given how we'll be going into March by then, it's more likely than not that we get maybe one more good snow event then that's it. But this winter has already defied any and all expectation, so it's obviously hard to nail something down now.

I think our chances get considerably better if that second wave makes it up here.... that would leave us with at least 6 down and 12 to go.

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To tell you the truth I think KNYC will probaly break the record when the dust clears...at 57.7"...record is 75.6"...so they need an even 18.0". The Park will certainly finish with better than 1.6" for February and they are overdue for a good March...

It would also be nice to see a heavy wet snowstorm like April 1996.

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Alex, April 1982 would be better, of course.

Yes. Im just comparing it to other la ninas. April 1982 would be the best late April snowstorm in recent memory. Although, looking through the maps for March 1888, most of us would pick that one over any other-- 30 inches pretty common areawide, with a 45" jackpot in South Central CT. Looks like that's where the banding set up-- if that had been a bit further to the west, you'd have seen similar totals in NYC.

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Looking over the March 1888 map, it looks like there's a report of 29" from the Babylon south shore area. If memory serves, there was also a storm in the 1950s in March that dumped 29" in Babylon, either March 1956 or March 1958 I think. So it's happened more than once, even that late in the season.

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Looking over the March 1888 map, it looks like there's a report of 29" from the Babylon south shore area. If memory serves, there was also a storm in the 1950s in March that dumped 29" in Babylon, either March 1956 or March 1958 I think. So it's happened more than once, even that late in the season.

In March, 1956. it received a total of 25.6" on the 18th(19.4") and 19th(6.2") and a total of 34.4" for the month.

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Looking over the March 1888 map, it looks like there's a report of 29" from the Babylon south shore area. If memory serves, there was also a storm in the 1950s in March that dumped 29" in Babylon, either March 1956 or March 1958 I think. So it's happened more than once, even that late in the season.

I think that storm was under reported in NYC..just look at the pictures..man there were 10 foot drifts..I'm sure NYC recieved around 30 inches

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To tell you the truth I think KNYC will probaly break the record when the dust clears...at 57.7"...record is 75.6"...so they need an even 18.0". The Park will certainly finish with better than 1.6" for February and they are overdue for a good March...

Being overdue for a good march won't make it snow, but if the pattern will repeat itself, gotta like the chances for one more 8+ event in March.

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