IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Long range GFS remains very active and eventually pushes the ridge well off the coast. Will be quite an active next two weeks if its right with the amount of energy involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GGEM very similar to GFS with Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yeah that is a reasonable point I'd agree. You having more latitude and elevation makes it that much harder to torch to 65 this time of year, while a southwest wind comes off the cold ocean for Long Island. With that said I had NYC in mind with those comments, which is by most means very similar climo to mine and John's area. I honestly dont know why people mind a "torch" if it isnt going to snow it should be HOT. I dont see the Ocean as being much of a factor; it hit 60 here on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Also, my assumption is that the high latitude blocking was so extreme last winter, in February particularly, that all the cold air was more or less used and drained south into the mid latitudes. Recall how stagnant that cold air got by mid-month? The blocking wasn't allowing fresh cold airmasses to rebuild across the polar regions really so by the time March rolled around, can't exactly breed a fresh cold airmass that time of year anymore. So we torched once the pattern broke. The extreme blocking I thought was pretty key to the early Spring last year. There should be much more/plenty of cold air available to be tapped this March. Maybe thats what happened this winter also; we had such extreme blocking from December into January that all the cold air got used up. The difference is this happened earlier so it gives more time for cold air to rebuild in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Agreed, I'd like that July 590dm heat ridge back. Whip out the baseball gloves, roll the windows down, grab a beer, turn on some yellowcard, bring it. I want it to hit 100 every day this summer so all these dumb media people who hate snow are dying of heat stroke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I honestly dont know why people mind a "torch" if it isnt going to snow it should be HOT. I dont see the Ocean as being much of a factor; it hit 60 here on Monday. Well aren't you located in Queens/Brooklyn? I'm talking further out on Long Island.. Raritan Bay or the New York bight may not be a long enough fetch over the cool ocean waters to have an effect over the western areas of the island towards those boroughs. but take Islip for instance and it was only 41º for a high yesterday with the SW wind, and 56º on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I want it to hit 100 every day this summer so all these dumb media people who hate snow are dying of heat stroke! I will kill you if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I will kill you if that happens. lol thats right, you hated last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well aren't you located in Queens/Brooklyn? I'm talking further out on Long Island.. Raritan Bay or the New York bight may not be a long enough fetch over the cool ocean waters to have an effect over the western areas of the island towards those boroughs. but take Islip for instance and it was only 41º for a high yesterday with the SW wind, and 56º on Monday. Extreme SW Nassau, only 4 miles from JFK and 3 miles north of the Ocean. I agree with this, oftentimes we hit 90 in the summer even on a SW wind, and we dont get a seabreeze until around 4 PM or so unless the wind is due south or SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Extreme SW Nassau, only 4 miles from JFK and 3 miles north of the Ocean. I agree with this, oftentimes we hit 90 in the summer even on a SW wind, and we dont get a seabreeze until around 4 PM or so unless the wind is due south or SE. Any comments on the 12z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 12 EURO is cooler then 0z. First low is squashed under confluence some light snow/mix with another area of energy hanging back that then passes through with light/mod snows for Philly and NYC. Blehh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Kind of like the 6z GFS but a bit further north with precip with second wave and also drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Extreme SW Nassau, only 4 miles from JFK and 3 miles north of the Ocean. I agree with this, oftentimes we hit 90 in the summer even on a SW wind, and we dont get a seabreeze until around 4 PM or so unless the wind is due south or SE. I got a new wether station going, dont have the data online yet. Will be interesting this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like a widespread 1-4 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I got a new wether station going, dont have the data online yet. Will be interesting this summer Thanks, man-- what kind is it? Did you see the NESIS map for Jan 26-27? I'm sure it made you chuckle that they had us under 4-10" of snow when we got that much in an hour and we all ended up with around 16-16.5 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks like a widespread 1-4 inch snowfall. I'll take it! Sign me up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'll take it! Sign me up!!! I can agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 suspect euro struggling with its Sw bias. Seems too slow to eject energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I will kill you if that happens. you will have to go through me first, last summer was awesome. I want more of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I will definitly take the 1-4 to shut all the people up in my office about hoping winter and the snow are over. I keep trying to tell them this warm up is temporary and that March will be very active. I'll take anything thats signficant, even if its rain. Nothing worse in my opinion than boring zonal flow. Once I'm done with the snow though I'm done. I love the warm weather and the hotter in the summer the better. My perferct summer would be long stretches of hot temps, very rich humidities and high end severe chances at least once a week. About the only thing better than seeing a winter storm warning or blizzard warning in my zone is waking up to see the northeast moderate risked. Had the great experience of two supercells last summer and I hope this year continues where last year left off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 From someone on the Philly thread Individual GFS member. Weaker 1st wave and stronger 2nd wave. Resized to 87% (was 1000 x 600) - Click image to enlarge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Jma and nogaps are nice hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Jma and nogaps are nice hits. Explain please - Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Jma and nogaps are nice hits. lock it up lol FWIW, I think the JMA I believe has done fairly well so far this season, as far as the NAVY model is concerned, I'm not quite so sure I understand why they still run it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Thanks, man-- what kind is it? Did you see the NESIS map for Jan 26-27? I'm sure it made you chuckle that they had us under 4-10" of snow when we got that much in an hour and we all ended up with around 16-16.5 inches lol. I did lol, rediculous. Its a davis vantage vue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 lock it up lol FWIW, I think the JMA I believe has done fairly well so far this season, as far as the NAVY model is concerned, I'm not quite so sure I understand why they still run it. Yes, the JMA has done really well this season in the 96 hour timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Explain please - Rossi Nogaps has .25" of snow on Sunday and then about .50" of snow on Tuesday. JMA, is a mix for Sunday and .25"-.50" of snow for Tuesday. lock it up lol FWIW, I think the JMA I believe has done fairly well so far this season, as far as the NAVY model is concerned, I'm not quite so sure I understand why they still run it. Yes, the JMA has done really well this season within 96 hours. JMA was atrocious with the last event, Feb. 1st. 48 hours before the event it had 1" of liquid as all snow, while every other model was an inland cutter and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I just want the 7" we need to move into 2nd place all time. I think 1st is out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Maybe thats what happened this winter also; we had such extreme blocking from December into January that all the cold air got used up. The difference is this happened earlier so it gives more time for cold air to rebuild in Canada. Northern Canada has had plenty of cold air since around January 9, 2011. Iqaluit, Nunavut (link), for example, has barely cracked 1F, or around -18C. At least 12 of those days were in double digit negative for farenheight, and one of those days had a high of -29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think 1st is out of reach. I don't think so. We still have 1 more month left. Anything can happen. I just need 19 more inches for 80 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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