2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't cancel winter either, if the EC ensembles are correct. Of course it may be more difficult for NYC in this pattern, but some pretty cold air moves into the nrn tier in the 11-15 day. Now maybe it works out that each low moves north towards sne, but based on what I see...I don't think there is overwhelming evidence to cancel winter for NYC. The NPAC ridging (-EPO) will help. Also while only slight, there may be just enough of a poke from ridging in Greenland to force the cold a little further south. It's not much, but every bit helps. If I were Philly on south, I'd be much more concerned.

[NJwinter23]

I just saw the day to day maps...they show a peak around 2-3C or so. Maybe it shows a temporary spike in the afternoon but it's very hard to hit 65F in late February, and I wouldn't imagine that set-up supports. You're likely to have clouds/rain showers in the warm sector, which makes it difficult to achieve those readings. I wasn't questioning your understanding of the model but rather the wisdom of using surface temps in the longer range.

It isn't as hard as you'd think at least down this way, especially in a La Nina February. Feb 2008 we reached 70º in a cloudy/rainy warm sector 2 or 3 times in New Brunswick, those were some really potent apps runners/lake cutters though.

for what its worth, 850s are +8 or greater in NYC from hours 228-240 on the 00z euro...There is a lot of moisture showing up though so you may be right that it is not quite 65..but I think this discussion on surface temps for a day 9-10 model run should probably end here lol.

[IsentropicLift]

Are the recent events so bad that we are now analyzing fantasy land model ranges? The models have been poor even at 48hrs out. Whatever happens beyond next week is anyone's guess, and thats about it.

[earthlight]

I wouldn't cancel winter either, if the EC ensembles are correct. Of course it may be more difficult for NYC in this pattern, but some pretty cold air moves into the nrn tier in the 11-15 day. Now maybe it works out that each low moves north towards sne, but based on what I see...I don't think there is overwhelming evidence to cancel winter for NYC. The NPAC ridging (-EPO) will help. Also while only slight, there may be just enough of a poke from ridging in Greenland to force the cold a little further south. It's not much, but every bit helps. If I were Philly on south, I'd be much more concerned.

I'd be more excited if we were seeing at least a hint of some NAO ridging. The -EPO is good, but I've seen a whole bunch of SWFEs give us rain with a -EPO. With the big trough out west I think the pattern is good to get redeveloping surface lows underneath LI. Each event is obviously different with antecedent cold air and all that--but I think areas north of NYC stand a much greater chance of seeing a 6+" event than areas south.

Regarding major snow events...I think this winter may be over South of the NJ-NY border, but we shall see.

[nzucker]

It isn't as hard as you'd think at least down this way, especially in a La Nina February. Feb 2008 we reached 70º in a cloudy/rainy warm sector 2 or 3 times in New Brunswick, those were some really potent apps runners/lake cutters though.

for what its worth, 850s are +8 or greater in NYC from hours 228-240 on the 00z euro...There is a lot of moisture showing up though so you may be right that it is not quite 65..but I think this discussion on surface temps for a day 9-10 model run should probably end here lol.

Yeah, the area where you and John live definitely has a different climo with SW flow torching you much more easily than areas like Long Island and Westchester. That may be part of the disagreement here: we just live in areas that have vastly different temperature regimes, especially in late winter and spring when the progression of warm fronts becomes crucial. I only got to around 55F the other day when John hit 62F, and it's not uncommon to see these 10F differences during late Feb/March/April between central NJ and Westchester/LI.

As you say, not much point in discussing the ECM verbatim in the longer range...models have been flip-flopping a lot as to how strong the SE ridge is versus the confluence in Southeast Canada due to the NAO block. We're seeing it with the Tuesday system and again in the longer range...it's a delicate balance between the warmth in the Southeast and the cold entrenched over Quebec and towards the Maritimes, but this contrast in airmasses could yield some strong storm systems as is typical for late winter/early spring.

[TheTrials]

There may be some very dissapointed people when this storm ejects as one piece at 84 hours and whatever is left over is vaporized by the confluence after 84 hours. Two wave situations have a high fail rate, so it will be interesting to see what the globals show today because IMHO there doesnt appear to be much left on the NAM after 84 hours.

[Chris L]

I'd be more excited if we were seeing at least a hint of some NAO ridging. The -EPO is good, but I've seen a whole bunch of SWFEs give us rain with a -EPO. With the big trough out west I think the pattern is good to get redeveloping surface lows underneath LI. Each event is obviously different with antecedent cold air and all that--but I think areas north of NYC stand a much greater chance of seeing a 6+" event than areas south.

Regarding major snow events...I think this winter may be over South of the NJ-NY border, but we shall see.

Major meaning 8 inches or more right?

If I recall correctly, you only need 12 more inches to beat 1995-1995, Newark needs 15 to beat it. IMO, that is doable if we get small to moderate events (3-5, then 3-5, then 1-3), then its broken.

[TheTrials]

Yeah, the area where you and John live definitely has a different climo with SW flow torching you much more easily than areas like Long Island and Westchester. That may be part of the disagreement here: we just live in areas that have vastly different temperature regimes, especially in late winter and spring when the progression of warm fronts becomes crucial. I only got to around 55F the other day when John hit 62F, and it's not uncommon to see these 10F differences during late Feb/March/April between central NJ and Westchester/LI.

As you say, not much point in discussing the ECM verbatim in the longer range...models have been flip-flopping a lot as to how strong the SE ridge is versus the confluence in Southeast Canada due to the NAO block. We're seeing it with the Tuesday system and again in the longer range...it's a delicate balance between the warmth in the Southeast and the cold entrenched over Quebec and towards the Maritimes, but this contrast in airmasses could yield some strong storm systems as is typical for late winter/early spring.

It's always funny to read posts about YBY that infer you live in some kind of special micro climate at 400 feet in Westchester where temperature run 10 degrees cooler then everyone esle and snow falls and sticks at 40 degrees with 850's of +2.

[earthlight]

Agreed on the latitude difference..that is where most of the disagreement is stemming from

[ag3]

People are a little confused.

There are 2 waves of energy, separated by 48 hours.

The 1st wave, for Sunday never gave us snow. Not one model, except for 1-2 runs of euro and gfs gave us .10" of precip as snow, a couple runs ago.

The 2nd wave, for Tuesday is the one that we have been following. At 0z last night, it was 132 hours out. Every model but the euro has the 132 hour event, but too far south, giving DC south snow.

Today's 12z runs will be 120 hours out still.

[earthlight]

It's always funny to read posts about YBY that infer you live in some kind of special micro climate at 400 feet in Westchester where temperature run 10 degrees cooler then everyone esle and snow falls and sticks at 40 degrees with 850's of +2.

Mount Zucker rules for snow. Where have you been?

[earthlight]

I'm honestly just glad to be discussing something...you would think it's June 15 at 2am the way this forum has been the past week.

[TheTrials]

Mount Zucker rules for snow. Where have you been?

Watching and laughing.

[Chris L]

Another thing, March will have some snow, I can count on that in a Nina. Unlike last year's wet STJ filled March, we no cold air was to be seen.

[TheTrials]

Another thing, March will have some snow, I can count on that in a Nina. Unlike last year's wet STJ filled March, we no cold air was to be seen.

If it doesn't snow in march, will you be buying drinks at the summer get together?

[nzucker]

I'm honestly just glad to be discussing something...you would think it's June 15 at 2am the way this forum has been the past week.

It's going to be an active period coming up with the wave on Tuesday and then the trough returning by 3/1. We may also have an arctic shot to watch next week as the PV lobe builds into the area, with temperatures possibly dropping into the single digits in many areas.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

NAM has big cold air damming at later hour frames. snow should move into philly metro before midnite mon, this NAM run verbatim.

[NJwinter23]

Yeah, the area where you and John live definitely has a different climo with SW flow torching you much more easily than areas like Long Island and Westchester. That may be part of the disagreement here: we just live in areas that have vastly different temperature regimes, especially in late winter and spring when the progression of warm fronts becomes crucial. I only got to around 55F the other day when John hit 62F, and it's not uncommon to see these 10F differences during late Feb/March/April between central NJ and Westchester/LI.

As you say, not much point in discussing the ECM verbatim in the longer range...models have been flip-flopping a lot as to how strong the SE ridge is versus the confluence in Southeast Canada due to the NAO block. We're seeing it with the Tuesday system and again in the longer range...it's a delicate balance between the warmth in the Southeast and the cold entrenched over Quebec and towards the Maritimes, but this contrast in airmasses could yield some strong storm systems as is typical for late winter/early spring.

Yeah that is a reasonable point I'd agree. You having more latitude and elevation makes it that much harder to torch to 65 this time of year, while a southwest wind comes off the cold ocean for Long Island. With that said I had NYC in mind with those comments, which is by most means very similar climo to mine and John's area.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I'm honestly just glad to be discussing something...you would think it's June 15 at 2am the way this forum has been the past week.

seriously.....its gonna be an up and down ride the rest of the way but I wouldnt say its over for us around here. yes we're gonna try to fit a square peg into a round hole most of the time since the PNA is horrdendous and the atlantic isnt looking as favorable as I once thought...BUT, shots of storms are there. wavelengths shortening in mar can help. a couple transient blocks up north can be sufficient.

[CoastalWx]

I'd be more excited if we were seeing at least a hint of some NAO ridging. The -EPO is good, but I've seen a whole bunch of SWFEs give us rain with a -EPO. With the big trough out west I think the pattern is good to get redeveloping surface lows underneath LI. Each event is obviously different with antecedent cold air and all that--but I think areas north of NYC stand a much greater chance of seeing a 6+" event than areas south.

Regarding major snow events...I think this winter may be over South of the NJ-NY border, but we shall see.

So would I, and I'm in Boston.

I'm just saying that it at least offers opportunities which is all you can really ask. They very well may not happen, but that's impossible to figure out. If we didn't have that NPAC ridge, then forget it. Some up this way are on the epic March train, but I'm not completely confident in that...although I think it will be better than what we've seen since '07.

[Allsnow]

If it's not going to snow anymore let's just torch and get on with it

[NJwinter23]

Another thing, March will have some snow, I can count on that in a Nina. Unlike last year's wet STJ filled March, we no cold air was to be seen.

Also, my assumption is that the high latitude blocking was so extreme last winter, in February particularly, that all the cold air was more or less used and drained south into the mid latitudes. Recall how stagnant that cold air got by mid-month? The blocking wasn't allowing fresh cold airmasses to rebuild across the polar regions really so by the time March rolled around, can't exactly breed a fresh cold airmass that time of year anymore. So we torched once the pattern broke. The extreme blocking I thought was pretty key to the early Spring last year.

There should be much more/plenty of cold air available to be tapped this March.

[Duality]

If it's not going to snow anymore let's just torch and get on with it

That's the spirit!!

[earthlight]

If it's not going to snow anymore let's just torch and get on with it

Agreed, I'd like that July 590dm heat ridge back. Whip out the baseball gloves, roll the windows down, grab a beer, turn on some yellowcard, bring it.

[earthlight]

Also, my assumption is that the high latitude blocking was so extreme last winter, in February particularly, that all the cold air was more or less used and drained south into the mid latitudes. Recall how stagnant that cold air got by mid-month? The blocking wasn't allowing fresh cold airmasses to rebuild across the polar regions really so by the time March rolled around, can't exactly breed a fresh cold airmass that time of year anymore. So we torched once the pattern broke. The extreme blocking I thought was pretty key to the early Spring last year.

There should be much more/plenty of cold air available to be tapped this March.

Yeah, this I agree with. I don't think this ends up being a "cold" spring when you look at it on paper, but it's certainly not going to be warm either. I personally envision lots of brief warmups and cooldowns with plenty of precipitation through May.

[TheTrials]

12z gfs pretty much what i posted about before the run, one big warm wave and the second one never can get going squshed by the confluent flow.

I would say that is the most likely solution at this time. As earthlight has been saying this isn't a good pattern for snow.

[ag3]

12z gfs pretty much what i posted about before the run, one big warm wave and the second one never can get going squshed by the confluent flow.

I would say that is the most likely solution at this time. As earthlight has been saying this isn't a good pattern for snow.

2nd wave total precip.

[NJwinter23]

Yeah, this I agree with. I don't think this ends up being a "cold" spring when you look at it on paper, but it's certainly not going to be warm either. I personally envision lots of brief warmups and cooldowns with plenty of precipitation through May.

Makes sense for the upcoming Spring. Furthermore, we have a fantastic late winter cold air source in tact up north because we got rid of the high latitude blocking in mid-January, plus of course the fact La Nina favors a better cold source anyway. If the pattern decides to lock a trough in the east at any point in March, or if we get a blocking regime to reform, the anomolous cold will come this March and late winter snow events will be fair game..These gradient patterns with a trough out west though will go unfavorable pretty fast for our latitude in the next few weeks. They never quite were very favorable any time of year to begin with.

[IsentropicLift]

12z gfs pretty much what i posted about before the run, one big warm wave and the second one never can get going squshed by the confluent flow.

I would say that is the most likely solution at this time. As earthlight has been saying this isn't a good pattern for snow.

It didn't miss by much, and it wouldn't take a whole lot to bring significant QPF alot further north with the second wave.

[Zelocita Weather]

It didn't miss by much, and it wouldn't take a whole lot to bring significant QPF alot further north with the second wave.

Interaction between the two waves is very fragile so ANYTHING is still possible, but it seems SNE/NYC/NJ will miss out on Snow to the north with Wave #1, and our hope is storm #2. We need a little more spacing between the waves or a weaker wave #1.

Either of those would allow a more robust and further north #2.