earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I should clarify...there is really no semblance of a -NAO past Day 7 which is what NZucker was speaking about. There is a decent NAO block (more about placement than anything) for the first storm system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yeah verbatim its ugly...but what it does with that plains s/w is laughable between 204-240. Doubt it goes like that. It totally focuses every ounce of energy on a little piece riding up the ridge east of the Rockies. Regardless, probably fruitless arguing an OP run beyond 6 days anyway...nevermind at 234 hours. Yeah I agree. Also check out what it's doing in the EPac with the closed shortwave which it brings due south from Alaska into the E Pac and then the Baja. Spins around for a few days out there too.That would be a pretty funny event to see unfold..probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Rapid change of events, need to see some signals that March will play out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Rapid change of events, need to see some signals that March will play out better. Well this is what you get what you have a fragile pattern to begin with...and the models trying to handle energy coming out of the Pac and N Canada. Both very sparse data ingestion areas and just poor modeling areas in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well this is what you get what you have a fragile pattern to begin with...and the models trying to handle energy coming out of the Pac and N Canada. Both very sparse data ingestion areas and just poor modeling areas in general. This is what you get in a pattern with unfavorable conditions, all around the board. You have to be skeptical of most model output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yeah I agree. Also check out what it's doing in the EPac with the closed shortwave which it brings due south from Alaska into the E Pac and then the Baja. Spins around for a few days out there too.That would be a pretty funny event to see unfold..probably wrong. My feeling is the upcoming event is mostly NY State and New England...even SNE might be in trouble, but we'll see...could be walking the line ala '07-'08. Then we see a slight moderation after the cold shot behind the next week storm (not a torch like the Euro shows)...then a potentially better period in the Mar 5-15 period...but before that could be more gradient stuff. I'm thinking the PNA takes until the first week of March to relax a bit. But NYC isn't necessarily out of any wintry precip either even if the Feb 21-22 event is north...many folks in this subforum might recall the Feb 22, 2008 event that started in the wee hours of the morning. The only good event for the region that year. Warning criteria snow (or close anyway) fell before the flip to sleet and rain. It could play out like that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Unrelated. Just putting it out there that a hurricane will make landfall in the SE US this upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 My feeling is the upcoming event is mostly NY State and New England...even SNE might be in trouble, but we'll see...could be walking the line ala '07-'08. Then we see a slight moderation after the cold shot behind the next week storm (not a torch like the Euro shows)...then a potentially better period in the Mar 5-15 period...but before that could be more gradient stuff. I'm thinking the PNA takes until the first week of March to relax a bit. But NYC isn't necessarily out of any wintry precip either even if the Feb 21-22 event is north...many folks in this subforum might recall the Feb 22, 2008 event that started in the wee hours of the morning. The only good event for the region that year. Warning criteria snow (or close anyway) fell before the flip to sleet and rain. It could play out like that too. You think the PNA goes positive during the March period you reference? Will we get a favorable ridge out west coupled with blocking? I hope we return to a more favorable pattern, but I am worried about the progressive nature of a zonal/flat pattern. We see even with blocking if the flow out west is flat and fast, nothing really get's going. I hope we manage one more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 My feeling is the upcoming event is mostly NY State and New England...even SNE might be in trouble, but we'll see...could be walking the line ala '07-'08. Then we see a slight moderation after the cold shot behind the next week storm (not a torch like the Euro shows)...then a potentially better period in the Mar 5-15 period...but before that could be more gradient stuff. I'm thinking the PNA takes until the first week of March to relax a bit. But NYC isn't out of any wintry precip either even if the Feb 21-22 event is north...many folks in this subforum might recall the Feb 22, 2008 event that started in the wee hours of the morning. The only good event for the region that year. Warning criteria snow (or close anyway) fell before the flip to sleet and rain. It could play out like that too. I think we're done, here...in all honesty. This has all the signs of a gradient type pattern, it's written all over the walls. I do think this event still has a shot, coming up..especially for you guys. The PV timing is going to be very important--the 18z GFS was a nice look into the possibilities if the timing is good. But the sampling is going to be bad and we're going to see wild variations in solutions. Regarding the more broad look at the pattern, I pretty much agree with you. The height pattern being depicted by most global models and ensembles through the long range is just not going to cut it...I'm hard pressed to find much NAO ridging and the Pacific is really a hot mess for a lack of better terms. Obviously, the pattern can change rapidly..things can change..that's what so awesome about meteorology. But at this range when you take a step back and check it out, it's not very promising at all for anybody S of 40 N...and may even become a nail biter a bit north of that "boundary" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Unrelated. Just putting it out there that a hurricane will make landfall in the SE US this upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Also..I didn't want to hint at any discontent in my posts at all. I am more than happy with this winter, seriously...I said after the Jan 26 storm that it could torch the rest of the winter and I wouldn't care..and I meant it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Also..I didn't want to hint at any discontent in my posts at all. I am more than happy with this winter, seriously...I said after the Jan 26 storm that it could torch the rest of the winter and I wouldn't care..and I meant it I said it after Dec 26th, I would take this winter any day, such dynamic storms and an incredible period of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think we're done, here...in all honesty. This has all the signs of a gradient type pattern, it's written all over the walls. I do think this event still has a shot, coming up..especially for you guys. The PV timing is going to be very important--the 18z GFS was a nice look into the possibilities if the timing is good. But the sampling is going to be bad and we're going to see wild variations in solutions. Regarding the more broad look at the pattern, I pretty much agree with you. The height pattern being depicted by most global models and ensembles through the long range is just not going to cut it...I'm hard pressed to find much NAO ridging and the Pacific is really a hot mess for a lack of better terms. Obviously, the pattern can change rapidly..things can change..that's what so awesome about meteorology. But at this range when you take a step back and check it out, it's not very promising at all for anybody S of 40 N...and may even become a nail biter a bit north of that "boundary" as well. At one point I thought the huge NAO block would come back like Don S thought...but I now don't think that happens...it might in March, but I don't think it ever comes back nearly as strong as it was in December and early January. Outside of a fluke, I think winter might be cooked south of Trenton...but never say never in meteorology. It has a funny way of humbling those of us who start spewing absolutes. As for NYC metro, I don't think its done yet...the EPO is going to be fantastic for getting cold into a Canada, so even with a SE ridge, it will only take a few minor waves in the longwave pattern to get the cold far enough south to get another good event. Especially if we get another NAO block like this coming one but with a less amped -PNA. Hell, even this upcoming storm could produce there, but my money is further north for >4". In mid-March, the wavelengths really shorten very quickly. So a -NAO will start to favor further north with both precip anomalies and cold. So the clock is ticking. It wouldn't shock me if NYC has seen its last 4"+ snowfall (though my gut says one more). I think Boston sees one more 6"+ snowfall, but it wouldn't shock me off the earth if they didn't either. But I do think March will be a very good pattern for latitude which is why I think BOS will see another big one. CNE and NNE might clean up. It remains to be seen if SNE does too or even as far south as NJ and NYC. That's just my take...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 6Z GFS is once again colder in the Northern Mid - Atlantic - the controlling factor here is the structure PV in Central- South East Canada. This determines how the low pressure is going to ride along the boundary across the midwest and mid -atlantic -and how far south the cold enough air gets -- the GFS has had a few different strutures the last few runs and probably one of them is going to be be close to verifying - but which one ? This event has all the signals of being a nail biter - now casting event for the 2 waves coming through early next week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 euro continues to be on its own although now its on the warm side. Absolutely no consistency from this model right now, not that the gfs is much better. CMC seems to be the steadiest right now, but that model has its issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 In my opinion winter is about over as far as major cold and snow is concerned. What I feel and fear is that md March through April will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I hate to keep throwing KU analogs out there, especially since for the most part they have been wrong this season but look who decided to show up as the #2 analog over the east based on the 500mb pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Those analogs should not be used for exact events at this range, they are based on the 500mb pattern within that square grid. Meaning there could be a completely different upper air pattern outside of that grid in the pacific and atlantic at that time on the analogs. To see a few KU events is encouraging, but given the upper air pattern surrounding the system, doesn't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Those analogs should not be used for exact events at this range, they are based on the 500mb pattern within that square grid. Meaning there could be a completely different upper air pattern outside of that grid in the pacific and atlantic at that time on the analogs. To see a few KU events is encouraging, but given the upper air pattern surrounding the system, doesn't mean much. I feel as though analogs are most usefull when there is decent spread. I was in no way trying to point out that were about to have a KU event in six days but the 96 analog has shown up quite a few times this season and thats the highest its been in terms of the 500mb pattern. I did try checking out the other sectors to see if it showed up there but it did not. I do however think that this is a very complex situation that still has alot of details to be worked out before it can be fully resolved. For most of the year so far, Dr. No has been on our side and the GFS has been against us. Now the tables are turned, it will be interesting to see which model is more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 and correct me if I'm wrong, but the 6z GFS would give areas just to our south a major snow storm? Espeically for central Jersey on southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Those analogs should not be used for exact events at this range, they are based on the 500mb pattern within that square grid. Meaning there could be a completely different upper air pattern outside of that grid in the pacific and atlantic at that time on the analogs. To see a few KU events is encouraging, but given the upper air pattern surrounding the system, doesn't mean much. LOL, that site needs to be re-tooled, it has been miserable for months, especially when the gfs is at its worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Lol, dude I have the actual temperature data. I see what it's showing in front of my face, it's not like I am just making that up off of the pattern. It has a small area of western New Jersey into Eastern PA at or over 65 degrees at 18z Saturday. You should never use surface temperatures verbatim in the longer range, especially with the ECM which has a bias over 1.5C at 2m in the longer range. We discussed the perils of using model data verbatim before the January 28th snowstorm...there's just no way 850s of +2C in late February suppots temperatures in the mid 60s despite what the model shows. It would probably be 50-55F in NYC metro given that map. I guess your desire to get in the pool early is trumping your met education...I know you're a beach and beers guy at heart! I think we're done, here...in all honesty. This has all the signs of a gradient type pattern, it's written all over the walls. I do think this event still has a shot, coming up..especially for you guys. The PV timing is going to be very important--the 18z GFS was a nice look into the possibilities if the timing is good. But the sampling is going to be bad and we're going to see wild variations in solutions. We're still fine in a gradient pattern in all honesty, given that it's only mid-February. This is the type of pattern that screams 2-4" dumps of snow followed by ice/sleet and over to rain for the urban areas. I'm just looking to add up the seasonal total at this point, not necessarily maintain the type of snowpack we had in mid-January. And John, I can't remember any winters where NYC didn't see any wintry weather after February 2nd, it's just not possible, especially in the northern suburbs where snow chances realistically extend into late March. I don't think the 18z GFS is going to verify; this looks more like a SW flow event with a cold high to the north that starts as snow and then changes over. But that doesn't mean we're done for the winter....we still have over a month left, and we can't see far enough out on the models to know what the pattern will look like. All the models are showing very cold air over Canada, a great sign when talking about March snowfalls. As Will says, a -EPO will do just fine if it's an extreme block, even without the -NAO on our side. It'll still be a gradient regime but we'll be on the cold side...this isn't DC man. Also, I wouldn't surrender winter at this point...we have no idea what the NAO will look like on March 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 You should never use surface temperatures verbatim in the longer range, especially with the ECM which has a bias over 1.5C at 2m in the longer range. We discussed the perils of using model data verbatim before the January 28th snowstorm...there's just no way 850s of +2C in late February suppots temperatures in the mid 60s despite what the model shows. It would probably be 50-55F in NYC metro given that map. I guess your desire to get in the pool early is trumping your met education...I know you're a beach and beers guy at heart! I don't get it, to be honest. 850's are warmer than 2 C at 18z Saturday, I don't know where you're getting that number. At 18z Saturday 850 temperatures are +8.5 degrees C over NYC We're warm sectored. Also, I never said anything about what "might" verify. I specifically stated "65 degrees next weekend on the Euro". That's what the model shows verbatim, which you argued. The map literally shows it. I understand the biases and all that, but your initial post seemed to say I wasn't understanding what the model was showing, which is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I don't get it, to be honest. 850's are warmer than 2 C at 18z Saturday, I don't know where you're getting that number. At 18z Saturday 850 temperatures are +8.5 degrees C over NYC We're warm sectored. Also, I never said anything about what "might" verify. I specifically stated "65 degrees next weekend on the Euro". That's what the model shows verbatim, which you argued. The map literally shows it. I understand the biases and all that, but your initial post seemed to say I wasn't understanding what the model was showing, which is wrong. The Sunday "event" is not the storm that would or EVER gave us snow. Its the Shortwave after that was our snow producer on a few runs of the euro and gfs. They all bring it well south now and miss our area. The storm is for 2/22, Tuesday. So still 114+ hours out. NAM at 84 hours, has the Tuesday storm, still north of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I don't get it, to be honest. 850's are warmer than 2 C at 18z Saturday, I don't know where you're getting that number. At 18z Saturday 850 temperatures are +8.5 degrees C over NYC We're warm sectored. Also, I never said anything about what "might" verify. I specifically stated "65 degrees next weekend on the Euro". That's what the model shows verbatim, which you argued. The map literally shows it. I understand the biases and all that, but your initial post seemed to say I wasn't understanding what the model was showing, which is wrong. I just saw the day to day maps...they show a peak around 2-3C or so. Maybe it shows a temporary spike in the afternoon but it's very hard to hit 65F in late February, and I wouldn't imagine that set-up supports. You're likely to have clouds/rain showers in the warm sector, which makes it difficult to achieve those readings. I wasn't questioning your understanding of the model but rather the wisdom of using surface temps in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18Z vs 6Z DGEX has a major shift south and slow down in the system at 120 hrs. GFS and GGEM are decent hits south of NYC and EURO gets has the PV strong enough to really squash the system. Starting to have a hard time seeing this as a rain solution, seems like it's either going to be frozen precip or a miss for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I just saw the day to day maps...they show a peak around 2-3C or so. Maybe it shows a temporary spike in the afternoon but it's very hard to hit 65F in late February, and I wouldn't imagine that set-up supports. You're likely to have clouds/rain showers in the warm sector, which makes it difficult to achieve those readings. I wasn't questioning your understanding of the model but rather the wisdom of using surface temps in the longer range. Man, I hit 62 the other day. It's not that difficult when you have a southwest flow and a warm airmass. Whatever you might be looking at, 850 temperatures are over 8 C at 18z next Saturday, I can tell you that. So 65 F is not that farfetched. It has some junk in the warm sector but nothing over our area. I'm not saying it's going to verify, but I don't think it's so terribly wrong with the surface temperatures given the setup. And yes, I am a pool and beer guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The Sunday "event" is not the storm that would or EVER gave us snow. Its the Shortwave after that was our snow producer on a few runs of the euro and gfs. They all bring it well south now and miss our area. The storm is for 2/22, Tuesday. So still 114+ hours out. NAM at 84 hours, has the Tuesday storm, still north of Texas. HPC's thoughts PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 728 AM EST THU FEB 17 2011 VALID 12Z MON FEB 21 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 24 2011 RECENT PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A MEAN EPAC/WEST COAST TROF AND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND ERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER WEEK AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SWD OVER A PERSISTENT ERN PAC RIDGE RELOADING THE EPAC/WEST COAST TROF. THIS MEAN PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND A WEEK AND SHOWING SIGNS OF PROGRESSION AS D+8-10 MEANS INDICATE THE TROF PROGRESSING INLAND WITH BELOW NORMAL HTS WHILE MAINTAINING DOWNSTREAM CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS RIDGING RIDGING WITH AVG HTS. DAILIES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE ECMWF HAS SETTLED DOWN BY ELIMINATING ITS OVERDONE ERN CANADIAN AND NERN CONUS TROF FOR MONDAY AND ITS SECOND AMPLIFIED TROF THAT WAS SHOWING UP FOR WED. THIS OVERAMPLIFICATION HAS BEEN A MODEL BIAS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SEASONS. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN AND OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS TAKING A CLOSED LOW WESTWARD AND TUCKING IN MORE OFFSHORE UNDER THE EPAC RIDGE..ALSO KNOWN ECMWF BIAS. HPC MORNING PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS A MIX OF ECMWF/GFS ENS MEANS DAYS 3-6 WITH INCORPORATION OF SOME NAEFS BY DAY 7 THURSDAY. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN ENS MEANS DAYS 3-4 FROM OP MODELS AND AGAIN BASICALLY WELL AGREED UPON FEATURES AT THE LONGER TIME FRAME OF DAYS 5-7 LEAVE A SIMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF ENS MEANS MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY WITHOUT UNCERTAIN AND UNLIKELY TO VERIFY DETAILS. WHILE WRN CONUS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COLD WET TROF CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE EARLY SPRING ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF COLD SURGES FOLLOWED BY RAPID CONSIDERABLE WARMUPS THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND. COLD HIGH PLUNGES SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS SUNDAY SHIFTING EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC CLASH AIDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY INDUCING A MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL WAVE EJECTING NEWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE COMING OUT FARTHER SOUTH MID WEEK. NRN PERIPHERY OF THESE TWO WAVES MAY PRODUCE MORE WINTERY WEATHER AS THEY EJECT EASTWARD. RETURN WARM ADVECTION FLOW FOLLOWS IN THE SRN PLAINS/MS/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL COLD SURGE EXPECTED IN THE NRN PLAINS LATE WEEK AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE AGREE ON ANOTHER CANADIANN HIGH PUSHING SOUTHWRD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 12z Day 4-5 QPF Map http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Man, I hit 62 the other day. It's not that difficult when you have a southwest flow and a warm airmass. Whatever you might be looking at, 850 temperatures are over 8 C at 18z next Saturday, I can tell you that. So 65 F is not that farfetched. It has some junk in the warm sector but nothing over our area. I'm not saying it's going to verify, but I don't think it's so terribly wrong with the surface temperatures given the setup. And yes, I am a pool and beer guy I just don't understand why you're cancelling winter in mid-February...even if we get nothing from the Tuesday storm, which is certainly possible, we'll have another threat after the lakes cutter goes through...the GFS ENS show very cold air building up over Canada due to a block over the Bering Strait, which is a great sign for early March: You can see on the Day 10 Euro that, despite temporary warmth, a huge -EPO block is building with a northern stream trough moving into the East. This follows Don Sutherland's analogs which show a trough returning to the East in the 3/1-3/3 timeframe. With all due respect, I have to disagree with you, John: winter is far from over for NYC metro, especially up in my area where we can realistically see snow until the last week of March: Most La Niña winters have had a good run of cold/snowy weather in March including 1956, 1960, and 1967...all historic periods for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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