Quincy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 radar looks a bit more impressive than 12z NAM simulated reflectivity. only time will tell if this will be an over-performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 So about 1-3 am. Are you still worried about the mid-level warm layer? Yes. I'm definitely not as concerned as I was yesterday, but mid level warm layers are always sneaky. These type of events always trend north at the last second for a reason--the guidance under estimates the degree of mid level warm air advection. That's why these events can sometimes "overperform" with the radar looking better than anticipated, the models underestimate the lift for precipitation. The thing working for us is the Polar Vortex which acts to suppress the flow and stop this thing from heading north. The timing is nearly perfect. That should act to enhance the gradient and allow for a band of heavier precipitation to develop along it---somewhere north of the surface low. Where this sets up is yet to be determined, but somebody is going to get 6+" and I am rather confident in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yes. I'm definitely not as concerned as I was yesterday, but mid level warm layers are always sneaky. These type of events always trend north at the last second for a reason--the guidance under estimates the degree of mid level warm air advection. That's why these events can sometimes "overperform" with the radar looking better than anticipated, the models underestimate the lift for precipitation. The thing working for us is the Polar Vortex which acts to suppress the flow and stop this thing from heading north. The timing is nearly perfect. That should act to enhance the gradient and allow for a band of heavier precipitation to develop along it---somewhere north of the surface low. Where this sets up is yet to be determined, but somebody is going to get 6+" and I am rather confident in that. I'm never one to be concerned with advisories/warnings, but there should be winter weather advisories for the whole Upton CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm never one to be concerned with advisories/warnings, but there should be winter weather advisories for the whole Upton CWA. and I'm almost certain we'll see those by 4 or 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like on the Day one HPC heavy snowfall graphic, the risk for four inch snowfall in NYC will be moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm never one to be concerned with advisories/warnings, but there should be winter weather advisories for the whole Upton CWA. I guess they are hedging on the idea that the NAM QPF is overdone and that there will be some melting. Or something. They may have wanted to see more guidance, too. Ultimately it comes down to the forecaster--but me personally, I probably would have issued advisories everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Perfect timing yet again. Between the PV location and timing, a weak and sheared out surface low, and start time. So lucky. Snow should start accumulating quick with the sun down and its been pretty cold yesterday and today. It appears our luck has not run out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Perfect timing yet again. Between the PV location and timing, a weak and sheared out surface low, and start time. So lucky. Snow should start accumulating quick with the sun down and its been pretty cold yesterday and today. It appears our luck has not run out yet If this event fails, the get together is on you, since you just hardcore jinxed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mt.Holly has a high of 47 for New Brunswick tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mt.Holly has a high of 47 for New Brunswick tomorrow... I know, what's with these huge high temperatures for tomorrow. We'll be lucky to get into the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mt.Holly has a high of 47 for New Brunswick tomorrow... what guidance are they using ?? Also this is interesting - just updated going for 7 -14 inches this month in central park http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 If this event fails, the get together is on you, since you just hardcore jinxed us. hahaha new RUC radar sim run got me excited, sorry lol http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2011022017&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUCModelFields&maxFcstLen=24&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 hahaha new RUC radar sim run got me excited, sorry lol http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2011022017&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUCModelFields&maxFcstLen=24&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 Cool loop. It will be important to monitor the mesoscales the next 12 hours for QPF trends especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mt Holly has this as non event and highs in the upper 40s for me. They may know something we dont know or they may not be ready to hug the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 PTravel is a good forecaster, but I can't see where he's getting the idea that there will be 7-14" this month at Central Park (note he has only 1 winter storm mentioned, so it's not like he's relying on the late week or next weekend storm to generate that snow). I could see 6" from the 1st event at Central Park *if* everything comes together right, but not more. what guidance are they using ?? Also this is interesting - just updated going for 7 -14 inches this month in central park http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mt Holly has this as non event and highs in the upper 40s for me. They may know something we dont know or they may not be ready to hug the models honestly it could go either way for us, especially down by me in Monmouth County. Although I think you'll do much better than me for first wave. 2nd wave I should do a bit better, but again, it's so freakin close either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 nice thumpin' right around rush hour for the tri-state area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 nice thumpin' right around rush hour for the tri-state area Albeit a much lighter than normal rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 PTravel is a good forecaster, but I can't see where he's getting the idea that there will be 7-14" this month at Central Park (note he has only 1 winter storm mentioned, so it's not like he's relying on the late week or next weekend storm to generate that snow). I could see 6" from the 1st event at Central Park *if* everything comes together right, but not more. I dont think he's relying on one winter storm ... he's got four seperate possible events, although three of them have 50% or less probablility of 2" or more These are the dates and probabilities from his blog : 2/20-2/21****, 2/21-2/22**, 2/24-2/25*, 2/27-2/28**, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Albeit a much lighter than normal rush hour. Yeah, one that will not include me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah, one that will not include me Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 PTravel is a good forecaster, but I can't see where he's getting the idea that there will be 7-14" this month at Central Park (note he has only 1 winter storm mentioned, so it's not like he's relying on the late week or next weekend storm to generate that snow). I could see 6" from the 1st event at Central Park *if* everything comes together right, but not more. It is a total for the entire month. KNYC already has 1.6" on the month...so all they need is 5.4" more to fall within his projected range. And as someone else said, there are outside shots at snow around the 25th and 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z NAM definitely drier...falls more in line with the rest of the models thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Also way further south with the second event so far through 33 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Going to be a nice refresher to the winter scene--and more inches on the seasonal total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z NAM definitely drier...falls more in line with the rest of the models thus far. Still solid though. .50" line is just north of NYC. NYC probably .40"-.49" range. Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Winter Weather Advisories now up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z nam is not way drier pretty much the same as 12z a bit drier over immediate nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 323 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 ...SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-210930- /O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.110221T0500Z-110221T1900Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU- SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 323 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...1/2 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Winter Weather Advisories now up. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 323 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 ...SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-210930- /O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.110221T0500Z-110221T1900Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU- SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 323 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...1/2 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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