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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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So about 1-3 am. Are you still worried about the mid-level warm layer?

Yes. I'm definitely not as concerned as I was yesterday, but mid level warm layers are always sneaky. These type of events always trend north at the last second for a reason--the guidance under estimates the degree of mid level warm air advection. That's why these events can sometimes "overperform" with the radar looking better than anticipated, the models underestimate the lift for precipitation.

The thing working for us is the Polar Vortex which acts to suppress the flow and stop this thing from heading north. The timing is nearly perfect. That should act to enhance the gradient and allow for a band of heavier precipitation to develop along it---somewhere north of the surface low. Where this sets up is yet to be determined, but somebody is going to get 6+" and I am rather confident in that.

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Yes. I'm definitely not as concerned as I was yesterday, but mid level warm layers are always sneaky. These type of events always trend north at the last second for a reason--the guidance under estimates the degree of mid level warm air advection. That's why these events can sometimes "overperform" with the radar looking better than anticipated, the models underestimate the lift for precipitation.

The thing working for us is the Polar Vortex which acts to suppress the flow and stop this thing from heading north. The timing is nearly perfect. That should act to enhance the gradient and allow for a band of heavier precipitation to develop along it---somewhere north of the surface low. Where this sets up is yet to be determined, but somebody is going to get 6+" and I am rather confident in that.

I'm never one to be concerned with advisories/warnings, but there should be winter weather advisories for the whole Upton CWA.

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I'm never one to be concerned with advisories/warnings, but there should be winter weather advisories for the whole Upton CWA.

I guess they are hedging on the idea that the NAM QPF is overdone and that there will be some melting. Or something.

They may have wanted to see more guidance, too.

Ultimately it comes down to the forecaster--but me personally, I probably would have issued advisories everywhere.

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Perfect timing yet again. Between the PV location and timing, a weak and sheared out surface low, and start time. So lucky. Snow should start accumulating quick with the sun down and its been pretty cold yesterday and today. It appears our luck has not run out yet :scooter:

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Perfect timing yet again. Between the PV location and timing, a weak and sheared out surface low, and start time. So lucky. Snow should start accumulating quick with the sun down and its been pretty cold yesterday and today. It appears our luck has not run out yet :scooter:

If this event fails, the get together is on you, since you just hardcore jinxed us.

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Cool loop. It will be important to monitor the mesoscales the next 12 hours for QPF trends especially.

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PTravel is a good forecaster, but I can't see where he's getting the idea that there will be 7-14" this month at Central Park (note he has only 1 winter storm mentioned, so it's not like he's relying on the late week or next weekend storm to generate that snow).

I could see 6" from the 1st event at Central Park *if* everything comes together right, but not more.

what guidance are they using ??

Also this is interesting - just updated going for 7 -14 inches this month in central park

http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/

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Mt Holly has this as non event and highs in the upper 40s for me. They may know something we dont know or they may not be ready to hug the models

honestly it could go either way for us, especially down by me in Monmouth County. Although I think you'll do much better than me for first wave. 2nd wave I should do a bit better, but again, it's so freakin close either way.

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PTravel is a good forecaster, but I can't see where he's getting the idea that there will be 7-14" this month at Central Park (note he has only 1 winter storm mentioned, so it's not like he's relying on the late week or next weekend storm to generate that snow).

I could see 6" from the 1st event at Central Park *if* everything comes together right, but not more.

I dont think he's relying on one winter storm ... he's got four seperate possible events, although three of them have 50% or less probablility of 2" or more

These are the dates and probabilities from his blog : 2/20-2/21****, 2/21-2/22**, 2/24-2/25*, 2/27-2/28**,

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PTravel is a good forecaster, but I can't see where he's getting the idea that there will be 7-14" this month at Central Park (note he has only 1 winter storm mentioned, so it's not like he's relying on the late week or next weekend storm to generate that snow).

I could see 6" from the 1st event at Central Park *if* everything comes together right, but not more.

It is a total for the entire month. KNYC already has 1.6" on the month...so all they need is 5.4" more to fall within his projected range. And as someone else said, there are outside shots at snow around the 25th and 28th.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

323 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...

CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-210930-

/O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.110221T0500Z-110221T1900Z/

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-

WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-

SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-

SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

323 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

2 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2

PM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...WESTERN LONG

ISLAND AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...1/2 MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT. A PERIOD OF

MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW

WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY

MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO

MONDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED

VISIBILITIES.

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Winter Weather Advisories now up.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

323 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...

CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-210930-

/O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.110221T0500Z-110221T1900Z/

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-

WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-

SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-

SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

323 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

2 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2

PM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...WESTERN LONG

ISLAND AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...1/2 MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT. A PERIOD OF

MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW

WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY

MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO

MONDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED

VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL

CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND

LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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