TheTrials Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not as wet as nam but similar track and temps. same old same old. NAM wetter than the GFS, and they meet somewhere in the middle. Nice convection this morning over the midwest, need to watch that and see how it affects the broader precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 850 looks good for PHL, SNJ as it tracks E across the MD/PA line for 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Maybe a little OT, but is it me or does it seem like there's usually some sort of storm treat on presidents day historically speaking. Seems like it to me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 UMKIE. 6 hour precip only, so dont have the 30 hour total, ewall will have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The UKMET is in the more suppressed camp for the second wave like the GFS and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The UKMET is in the more suppressed camp for the second wave like the GFS and RGEM. Yes looks very similar to tehe GFS with the second wave much weaker too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 From the NAM earlier..high resolution first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Clownies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12Z GFS coming in like the nam for the 1st wave. Nice looking event coming up 12z NAM up this way puts out 7.6 fot the first wave then 0.4" for the second wave http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kswf the 06z GFS spits out 3.0" total for both waves. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 How's the Canadian look for the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Very interesting trend so far today...looks like nyc and nnj could be in for a decent event........Dont hold qpf as a bible....these overrunning events tend to be juicer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 think there will be a few surprises in store...for better or worse with these overrunning/WAA setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 think there will be a few surprises in store...for better or worse with these overrunning/WAA setups. agreed. probably have three big things to look for: 1. banding - could have some localized gradients to make totals vary 2. moisture - if it has no problem (or a bigger problem) coming over the mountains...total potentials could be higher or lower. 3. exact track - further north, more mixing. further south, northern areas get screwed the timing is good, overnight to mid-morning, so any areas with marginal temps should be fine. I went with 2-4" for SW CT...somewhat tempted to go higher, but can't do that just yet. much higher confidence in 4" than 2" though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Very interesting trend so far today...looks like nyc and nnj could be in for a decent event........Dont hold qpf as a bible....these overrunning events tend to be juicer... Yes, we seen this before in overrunning events like February 1994, 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Very nice. Looks like a converging 3-5" for the city for the 1st wave, but the NAM held out some hope on the 2nd event as well. What's the time frame for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z SPC WRF is a hammering...3-6" looks like a good bet away from immediate coast and areas further south (central nj). We will have to watch for mid level warm layers but this looks great. Surface never really gets to freezing either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Very nice. Looks like a converging 3-5" for the city for the 1st wave, but the NAM held out some hope on the 2nd event as well. What's the time frame for the storm? Looks like around a 05-07z start time on the SPC WRF...it's usually good with timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like around a 05-07z start time on the SPC WRF...it's usually good with timing. surprised no advisories are up...people are going to be in for a shock tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 hr 18 light snow into nyc hr 24 mod snow into the city...nnj and sw ct... 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 surprised no advisories are up...people are going to be in for a shock tomorrow morning 3-6 advisory here in mid Westchester county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 .25+ of snow for the metro area on the euro....2nd wave looks further north through 30 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 RUC has about a 7z start time, hinting at highest totals falling across interior southern New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like around a 05-07z start time on the SPC WRF...it's usually good with timing. So about 1-3 am. Are you still worried about the mid-level warm layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 3-6 advisory here in mid Westchester county i'm talking about C/NNJ and NYC proper. I see no reason why it shouldn't be extended further south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 hr 42 has light snow up to ttn...but dont think the 2nd event will looks like the nam.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i'm talking about C/NNJ and NYC proper. I see no reason why it shouldn't be extended further south at this point. marginal temps, probably waiting for the next shift (late afternoon) before pushing any advisories. may even see low end warning criteria for the climatologically favored areas around Orange County and POSSIBLY NW NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2nd wave gets light snow as far north as ttn-blm........decent hit for mason dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2nd wave on EURO looks south. not that I was expecting it to go north, but it would be nice to see NYC and PHL both get thumps in the same day, from separate systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Forecast snow amounts for 1st event (Around 2AM-Noon Monday): TEB: 3-6" EWR: 2-5" SWF: 4-7" HPN: 3-6" NYC: 3-6" LGA: 3-5" JFK: 2-4" Port Jefferson, NY: 3-6" ISP: 3-5" FOK: 3-5" BDR: 3-5" DXR: 3-5" HVN: 2-4" MMK: 2-4" GON: 2-4" For 2nd event (Mon night): EWR: 0-1" JFK: 0-1" Every other location: 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2nd wave on EURO looks south. not that I was expecting it to go north, but it would be nice to see NYC and PHL both get thumps in the same day, from separate systems. I always thought the EURO was the better mid - long range model and the NAM was the better short range within 48 hours ? My suggestion is to wait and see what the 18Z NAM and 0Z MAM and the other mesoscale SREF's RUCS say before writing off their previous north trends today.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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