Sampson Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM looks lovely for 1st event. Solid hit and just cold enough. .50" thru hour 30. What do the surface temps look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2nd event north. Light to moderate precip into to NYC at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 What do the surface temps look like? Looks like the NAM is a dream sceanrio. 4-6" with first storm, then 2nd strom looks litke a hit through 36. This could be big... Sim radar on hour 42 is a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yup. Nam looks like a hit thru hour 45 for 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2nd storm loses its steam but def further north. light event for the city, light to moderate south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I find it interesting that all 6z models (RGEM, NAM, GFS, SREF) as well as the 12z NAM shifted for both events toward the one model that NCEP dismissed - the UKMET: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 128 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW STREAKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT... PREFERENCE: NON-00Z UKMET COMPROMISE STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT... PREFERENCE: NON-00Z UKMET COMPROMISE THE 12Z UKMET LIES OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO WILL CONSIDER ITS SOLUTION TOO STRONG ALOFT/TOO FAR NORTH AT THE SURFACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It breaks down after but NAM brings .25" to NYC for 2nd event. .75" into NYC for both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2nd storm loses its steam but def further north. light event for the city, light to moderate south of there City gets .25" from 2nd event. .75" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 City gets .25" from 2nd event. .75" total. Between the two events most of NJ looks to get 4-6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Between the two events most of NJ looks to get 4-6"+ More then that. Parts of Jersey are .75"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Between the two events most of NJ looks to get 4-6"+ And the trending probably hasn't stopped - I will stick with 2 -3 1st event and 4 - 7 for second with 4 further north toward NJ/NYS border and 7 North Central NJ - Union/ Northern Middlesex County total region wide both events combined - 6 - 10 inches ..................better ratio's colder on 2nd system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Leaving aside model QPF, the fact that the 12z NAM shows the 850 mb low now going across northern NJ instead of near Binghamton is much more favorable for the heaviest snow to fall across NYC/LI/NE NJ than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nam 72 hour precip - mostly snow/frozen NYC Metro http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamp72_NE072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I find it interesting that all 6z models (RGEM, NAM, GFS, SREF) as well as the 12z NAM shifted for both events toward the one model that NCEP dismissed - the UKMET: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 128 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW STREAKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT... PREFERENCE: NON-00Z UKMET COMPROMISE STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT... PREFERENCE: NON-00Z UKMET COMPROMISE THE 12Z UKMET LIES OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO WILL CONSIDER ITS SOLUTION TOO STRONG ALOFT/TOO FAR NORTH AT THE SURFACE. Fits the season quite well as guidance doesnt want to converge till last minute with most of our systems. The ggem to a degree has always been north of the pack with qpf for wave 2 and remained colder for wave 1. What a season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Good ratios with the second event for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 thank goodness CPA folks can quit crying...look to really get good thumps in from both waves. ok back to our region. good trends. id be concerned about the best snow growth N and NE of rte 1 corridor of TTN to NB from the first wave but gotta love the trends. and this looks good for wave 2 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 If the 2nd event is as far north as the NAM shows, we could see some LI Sound enhancement (and also some Ocean enhancement over coastal central NJ) with -925 mb temps around -12C, NE winds extending up to about 800 mb, and a deep saturated layer. Ocean temps off the central NJ coast are around 4C, and LI Sound temps are 1-2C. LGA sounding during the middle of the 2nd event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 thank goodness CPA folks can quit crying...look to really get good thumps in from both waves. ok back to our region. good trends. id be concerned about the best snow growth N and NE of rte 1 corridor of TTN to NB from the first wave but gotta love the trends. and this looks good for wave 2 imo. I'll gladly sacrifice wave # 1 for 3-6 inches on wave #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 and i dont think this will happen: Washington's Birthday: Rain and sleet, becoming all rain after 9am. High near 49. Southeast wind 7 to 13 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The Mon night event could be the first >1" snow event in NYC since Jan 14-15, 2004 where most of the snow falls with temps in the teens. Jan 27-28, 2004 and Jan 22-23, 2005 had a few hours of snowfall with temps in the teens. Good ratios with the second event for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Does anyone else think Upton's forecast seems a bit warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The RGEM does not seem like it changed much on the 1st system, its very similar to the NAM on the 2nd one but it seems slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Does anyone else think Upton's forecast seems a bit warm the problem is there grids dont line up with their disco. Their disco is cold the point and click is warm. They will have to expand the wwa later today if the rest of the models look like the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Does anyone else think Upton's forecast seems a bit warm both cwa areas seems a little warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Does anyone else think Upton's forecast seems a bit warm The NWS is usually slow to make changes to their forecast seems they like to "let the next shift worry about it". They are still working off of yesterdays model runs and the afternoon forecasts which was warmer in fact less then 24 hours ago it looked like 2 non - events - but this was always a close call - thread the needle and now most models are trending towards the colder snowier scenario's which has been the trend quite a few times this winter as the events are less then 24 - 48 hours out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The RGEM does not seem like it changed much on the 1st system, its very similar to the NAM on the 2nd one but it seems slightly south. RGEM appears to keep the good snow for wave 2 south of Philly http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Does anyone else think Upton's forecast seems a bit warm I agree, especially if the 12Z nam is anything like what actually happens. I was just looking over soundings for my area and if it even gets above freezing it looks to be brief. This looks like the closest call of the season, meaning shift in 20 mi will make a difference. I'm leaning more wintry for 1st event (for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12Z GFS coming in like the nam for the 1st wave. Nice looking event coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12Z GFS coming in like the nam for the 1st wave. Nice looking event coming up Not as wet as nam but similar track and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 12Z GFS coming in like the nam for the 1st wave. Nice looking event coming up From about TTN north now all snow for the 1st wave..per GFS more like a 3-5" deal with #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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