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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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I understand your concerns about the southern fringe of the snow missing NYC, but I think the chances of the 1st wave going north of NYC are minimal. I would expect a track across SE PA and off the central or southern NJ coast.

I still think the heaviest snow will be a bit north of NYC, however - from around Orange/Rockland County NY ESE to Fairfield County CT and eastern LI.

I live in Westchester about 10 miles north of the Bronx border...I am thinking this is a great place for the storm, as I should get the heaviest thump as the precip moves across Eastern PA but also have the chance to stay all snow unlike those in the Five Boroughs where mixing and poor ratios may reduce totals. Do you think Westchester is going to do well in this event?

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You should do well - I'm thinking you'll be just south of the swath of heaviest snows but should see 3-5". I don't think NYC will mix aside from perhaps Staten Island and JFK. (Note: when I say no mix, I'm only talking about the period of significant precip., not including leftover junk/drizzle on Mon afternoon).

I live in Westchester about 10 miles north of the Bronx border...I am thinking this is a great place for the storm, as I should get the heaviest thump as the precip moves across Eastern PA but also have the chance to stay all snow unlike those in the Five Boroughs where mixing and poor ratios may reduce totals. Do you think Westchester is going to do well in this event?

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You should do well - I'm thinking you'll be just south of the swath of heaviest snows but should see 3-6". I don't think NYC will mix aside from perhaps Staten Island and JFK.

I'm more confident in everybody mixing before the event ends. It's hard to pick up on soundings at the moment because we can only see three our intervals, and even then the precipitation is timing and thermal profiles have a lag when you look at maps/etc. But there's a mean warm layer working in the mid levels which will probably flip the usual suspects to sleet and possibly drizzle before it's over. The warm layer actually thickens as the precipitation moves northeast.

This is the beast we can never totally slay with warm air advection events. It's just a fact of life.

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You should do well - I'm thinking you'll be just south of the swath of heaviest snows but should see 3-5". I don't think NYC will mix aside from perhaps Staten Island and JFK. (Note: when I say no mix, I'm only talking about the period of significant precip., not including leftover junk/drizzle on Mon afternoon).

Maybe this thing can trend even further south, since that seems to be the trend. Id like to see it exit the coast between Cape May and Atlantic City and that seems doable.

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00z SPC WRF is actually farther south than the NAM, and colder...everybody is below freezing at the surface at this hour. NAM is definitely a touch warmer and farther north with the precipitation. There's some room to work with here in either direction (north or south) that could really impact areas like Zucker and myself as far as snowfall.

refd_1000m_f36.gif

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00z SPC WRF is actually farther south than the NAM, and colder...everybody is below freezing at the surface at this hour. NAM is definitely a touch warmer and farther north with the precipitation. There's some room to work with here in either direction (north or south) that could really impact areas like Zucker and myself as far as snowfall.

Good, lets squash this thing south :)

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00z SPC WRF is actually farther south than the NAM, and colder...everybody is below freezing at the surface at this hour. NAM is definitely a touch warmer and farther north with the precipitation. There's some room to work with here in either direction (north or south) that could really impact areas like Zucker and myself as far as snowfall.

Nice thumpin'

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Definitely could be. However, a lot of times with these types of overrunning events, esp. those that have a nice cold/dry source air mass to the north, the steady precip. will shut off just as the warmer air moves in aloft. That's what the NAM hourly soundings for LGA indicate. The steady precip. has ended by 14z Mon, as a layer near 0C from 725 to 825 mb moves in.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/namsndg/sndglga.html

I'm more confident in everybody mixing before the event ends. It's hard to pick up on soundings at the moment because we can only see three our intervals, and even then the precipitation is timing and thermal profiles have a lag when you look at maps/etc. But there's a mean warm layer working in the mid levels which will probably flip the usual suspects to sleet and possibly drizzle before it's over. The warm layer actually thickens as the precipitation moves northeast.

This is the beast we can never totally slay with warm air advection events. It's just a fact of life.

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Definitely could be. However, a lot of times with these types of overrunning events, esp. those that have a nice cold/dry source air mass to the north, the steady precip. will shut off just as the warmer air moves in aloft. That's what the NAM hourly soundings for LGA indicate. The steady precip. has ended by 14z Mon, as a layer near 0C from 725 to 825 mb moves in.

http://www.atmos.alb...dg/sndglga.html

That's pretty much what happened on 2/22/08

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Ugh I hate her-- that chick must have like a 7th grade education or some kind of speech impediment. Or maybe she's just stupid lol.

She's moltenly hot though Alex....I mean hot.

I just created a word.....moltenly...that means hot

Hey Alex.....we need to go for drinks soon I think

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She's moltenly hot though Alex....I mean hot.

I just created a word.....moltenly...that means hot

Hey Alex.....we need to go for drinks soon I think

Meh...she just has a rack. That's really it. She has the IQ of a ground squirrel. I'll take Brooklyn Decker over her any day.

Anyways...lets see what the NAM has to offer us in a few minutes.

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She's moltenly hot though Alex....I mean hot.

I just created a word.....moltenly...that means hot

Hey Alex.....we need to go for drinks soon I think

Yeah shes nice lol-- but man, those dumb commercials (you know the ones Im talking about-- The Proactiv ones.)

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Meh...she just has a rack. That's really it. She has the IQ of a ground squirrel. I'll take Brooklyn Decker over her any day.

Anyways...lets see what the NAM has to offer us in a few minutes.

Haha you must get SI. I imagine you put the swimsuit issue under your bed when the girlfriend comes over ;)

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I'm more confident in everybody mixing before the event ends. It's hard to pick up on soundings at the moment because we can only see three our intervals, and even then the precipitation is timing and thermal profiles have a lag when you look at maps/etc. But there's a mean warm layer working in the mid levels which will probably flip the usual suspects to sleet and possibly drizzle before it's over. The warm layer actually thickens as the precipitation moves northeast.

This is the beast we can never totally slay with warm air advection events. It's just a fact of life.

I'm sure there will be some drizzle/sleet on Monday as we lose the saturation at H7, but the main event looks to be close to all snow from NYC north. With the confluence to the north and heavy omega entering the region by the wee hours of tomorrow night, I think this screams "thump," and this storm could easily be an overperformer for some areas of the metro, particularly to the north and west. In all honesty, I like Rockland and Orange County the best for this event, as they have the most potential to get into the heavier banding before it weakens and also stay completely snow. I wouldn't be surprised if the higher elevations of SE NY, N NJ, and E PA pick up 6"+ from the storm.

WAA events aren't necessarily bad for NYC metro....we obviously have the 2/1994 storm as the classic example, but one SW flow event that rocked Westchester was 1/28/09; Dobbs Ferry had like 5" of snow before changing over to freezing rain even though the biggest totals were up in the North Country where I was going to college. It was the type of event that produces most of its precipitation as frozen due to a quick thump; as the mid-levels warmed, NYC went into the dryslot and thus the suburbs were able to hold onto the 5" of snow they had received. Another good one was 12/19/08...8" here and 4" in Central Park, had a nice 35dbz band that moved through during that afternoon, broke a string of crappy winters.

00z SPC WRF is actually farther south than the NAM, and colder...everybody is below freezing at the surface at this hour. NAM is definitely a touch warmer and farther north with the precipitation. There's some room to work with here in either direction (north or south) that could really impact areas like Zucker and myself as far as snowfall.

That's some juicy banding over N NJ, one of the areas I expect to do best in this set-up. I feel that your home is really on the line; you could get screwed with 1-2" snow and then tons of mix changing to drizzle during Monday morning...it's pretty marginal for places that are further SW, and climo says you generally don't do as well on SW flow events. However, if the 0z SPC WRF verified, you'd see a good deal of snow, more in the 3-5" range. I'd like the heavier QPF to bump north a bit for Westchester with a slightly colder trend for Monday as the event winds down, so we can pick up another 1-2" as the storm moves off the coast following the initial front--end dump. In any case, I'm fairly confident in a 3-5" forecast here, maybe hedging towards 4-6" considering the banding shown on the mesoscale models. Looks to be a decent event for the area, and a way to replenish the snowpack, which was completely decimated in the torch aside for 2-3" remaining in wooded areas and on north-facing lawns. Will be great to have some fresh white and to get a step closer to Central Park breaking the 95-96 record.

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