A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 RGEM is a really good run for the snow lovers, but I would like to see some consistency by tonight. The mesoscale models have been extremely prone to wild changes from run to run the past 48 hours. Seeing the Euro come in colder and further south was a good sign for sure. It'd be really nice to see it with the 0z GFS and EURO tonight, instead of having to rely on the 18z GFS.... of course, having the Euro on its side bolsters the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 But is it really THAT hard? I do everything they do, minus ASOS augmenting, and submit my obs to the NWS without a paycheck. And without the temp controversy haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ah ok, Tmagan was talking about the second wave, I wonder if he confused/combined the two. I wonder if wave 1 ends up suppressed, if wave 2 will be suppressed also. If I extrapolated beyond hour 54, it looks good for the second wave, although I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 But is it really THAT hard? I do everything they do, minus ASOS augmenting, and submit my obs to the NWS without a paycheck. Taking obs every hour 24/7 and writing them down is a labor of love.....Are you retired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 agreed. The best part of these storms when you risk the changeover is the front part, and they have a history of over performing, but the 700mb flow is lacking here Look at the 700mb panels in the bottom right and notice how 2/22/08, 12/19/08, 2/8/94 had very apparent SW flow at 700mb...the problem with this is there is that 700mb ridging evident at 30 hours and even 36 to an extent...notice also how tightly packed the heights are and in this event the packing is a bit looser somewhat...the 700mb level can screw you over alot on events and it can often go unnoticed by most forecasters...normally it bites you with a dry nose but in this case there may be a downslope component. http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us0222.php http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us1219.php http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0208.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It'd be really nice to see it with the 0z GFS and EURO tonight, instead of having to rely on the 18z GFS.... of course, having the Euro on its side bolsters the case. the first wave has a much much higher potential to give us accumulating snow than the second. So hope that Storm #1 goes as far south as possible to give us all snow as the next storm has minimal chance to deliver for us. Its just not digging as much in the plains, and the first storm is lowering heights over our area and supressing it since it has trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Look at the 700mb panels in the bottom right and notice how 2/22/08, 12/19/08, 2/8/94 had very apparent SW flow at 700mb...the problem with this is there is that 700mb ridging evident at 30 hours and even 36 to an extent...notice also how tightly packed the heights are and in this event the packing is a bit looser somewhat...the 700mb level can screw you over alot on events and it can often go unnoticed by most forecasters...normally it bites you with a dry nose but in this case there may be a downslope component. http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us0222.php http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us1219.php http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0208.php Thanks, SG! Was ridging at 700mb what caused the bust of the Heavy Snow Warning in Jan 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Look at the 700mb panels in the bottom right and notice how 2/22/08, 12/19/08, 2/8/94 had very apparent SW flow at 700mb...the problem with this is there is that 700mb ridging evident at 30 hours and even 36 to an extent...notice also how tightly packed the heights are and in this event the packing is a bit looser somewhat...the 700mb level can screw you over alot on events and it can often go unnoticed by most forecasters...normally it bites you with a dry nose but in this case there may be a downslope component. http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us0222.php http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us1219.php http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0208.php pretty much why you see the qpf go from robust to lacking from buffalo to eastern portions of ny and into ct and MA. Its probably also the reason the second wave is going to dissapoint a lot of people further to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the first wave has a much much higher potential to give us accumulating snow than the second. So hope that Storm #1 goes as far south as possible to give us all snow as the next storm has minimal chance to deliver for us. Its just not digging as much in the plains, and the first storm is lowering heights over our area and supressing it since it has trended south. Looks like the first storm will have more moisture to work with also-- opposite of what the models said a couple of days ago. Definitely rooting for the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Current air temps sort of reflect how the colder air may be slightly more deeply entrenched over eastern sections of the CWA...Newark is 29 F but Montauk is already down to 23 F...and obviously no radiational cooling is going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Thanks, SG! Was ridging at 700mb what caused the bust of the Heavy Snow Warning in Jan 2008? Not really, just very marginal temps...it was a bit dry at 700mb though...here is the best example I have of how 700mb destroys a storm...Central OK saw no snow from this...zero...while NW OK and then Tulsa were absolutely pounded...notice how dry it is at 700mb...the theory is that the 500 low was so strong it basically killed itself by pulling in dry air from down in TX.....notice how the 700mb zone goes dead over C OK for a period and then revives again after 12Z...the snow satellite after this storm was hilarious with a gaping hole over OKC....just looking at 850mb you'd expect to see a massive TROWAL over C-OK but nada... http://www.meteo.psu...2009/us0328.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SREFS have come siginificantly south with the first wave with plenty of cold air. Do not see a second event on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Current air temps sort of reflect how the colder air may be slightly more deeply entrenched over eastern sections of the CWA...Newark is 29 F but Montauk is already down to 23 F...and obviously no radiational cooling is going on... and im 19 to the west so that idea is out the wondow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 and im 19 to the west so that idea is out the wondow You're up in the mountains, no? Butler is near Oakland and just south of W. Milford...I'm comparing sea level stations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SREFs look good, that's a big jump south from 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SREF probabilities show a 90-100% chance of more than 2 inches of snow in Northern New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SREF probabilities give from Trenton South a 30-50% chance of more than 2 inches of snow with the second wave with a 10% chance all the way up to Staten Island. It is much further north. Also a 10-20% chance of more than an inch for N NJ and NYC for the second event. 50-60% chance of more than 4 inches across N NJ and into NYC with the first event. 10-20% chance of greater than 6 inches across S NJ with the second event Up to 10% chance of greater than 6 inches across NW NJ with the first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You're up in the mountains, no? Butler is near Oakland and just south of W. Milford...I'm comparing sea level stations... ok gotcha , was kind of busting your chops to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ok gotcha , was kind of busting your chops to lol No problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 First storm looking alittle bit more supressive thus far..PV over SE canada is a tad SW, low is slightly weaker too. We''ll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This is turning into a really nice run for N NJ and NYC. By 36 hrs there is already about 4 inches of snow and still coming down. The 850 line sets up just south of Rt. 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Just checked sounding at 36 hrs and it was all snow at Morristown. This is a HUGE hit for N NJ. Another 3 inches between 36 and 39 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Its a bizarre setup in that the confluence increases as you go east so very much like Warren county NJ saw more snow than JFK on 2/6/10 this is an event where it may rain in Erie PA but be all snow in N NJ. ...that said this has major bust potential if leading into the event the models still are showing the same thing as this run of the NAM is because even a 50 mile shift and someone forecast to get 5 inches will get squadoosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 At 39 hrs Morristown gets to +.2 at the 750mb level only but Caldwell remains below freezing. KNYC also below freezing except at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 QPF through 45 hrs is .5+ for N Warren, Sussex and N Passaic and N Morris counties and .25-.50 for everyone else from Trenton to Asbury Park north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like the layers above 850mb warm up as the storm ends, so most areas may end as sleet or a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The snowfall accumulation map on Stormvista puts everyone from Rt. 78 north in the 4-8 inch band and from Hunterdon County to Monmouth county north in the 2-4 inch band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2nd system stays completely to the south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2nd system stays completely to the south of us. yeah no suprise there, its all about the first storm for us. For philly folks im not sure which storm to root for there lol...3-6" would be awesome, its almost like stealing in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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