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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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RGEM is a really good run for the snow lovers, but I would like to see some consistency by tonight. The mesoscale models have been extremely prone to wild changes from run to run the past 48 hours. Seeing the Euro come in colder and further south was a good sign for sure.

It'd be really nice to see it with the 0z GFS and EURO tonight, instead of having to rely on the 18z GFS.... of course, having the Euro on its side bolsters the case.

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ah ok, Tmagan was talking about the second wave, I wonder if he confused/combined the two. I wonder if wave 1 ends up suppressed, if wave 2 will be suppressed also.

If I extrapolated beyond hour 54, it looks good for the second wave, although I don't buy it.

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agreed. The best part of these storms when you risk the changeover is the front part, and they have a history of over performing, but the 700mb flow is lacking here

Look at the 700mb panels in the bottom right and notice how 2/22/08, 12/19/08, 2/8/94 had very apparent SW flow at 700mb...the problem with this is there is that 700mb ridging evident at 30 hours and even 36 to an extent...notice also how tightly packed the heights are and in this event the packing is a bit looser somewhat...the 700mb level can screw you over alot on events and it can often go unnoticed by most forecasters...normally it bites you with a dry nose but in this case there may be a downslope component.

http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us0222.php

http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us1219.php

http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0208.php

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It'd be really nice to see it with the 0z GFS and EURO tonight, instead of having to rely on the 18z GFS.... of course, having the Euro on its side bolsters the case.

the first wave has a much much higher potential to give us accumulating snow than the second. So hope that Storm #1 goes as far south as possible to give us all snow as the next storm has minimal chance to deliver for us. Its just not digging as much in the plains, and the first storm is lowering heights over our area and supressing it since it has trended south. :thumbsup:

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Look at the 700mb panels in the bottom right and notice how 2/22/08, 12/19/08, 2/8/94 had very apparent SW flow at 700mb...the problem with this is there is that 700mb ridging evident at 30 hours and even 36 to an extent...notice also how tightly packed the heights are and in this event the packing is a bit looser somewhat...the 700mb level can screw you over alot on events and it can often go unnoticed by most forecasters...normally it bites you with a dry nose but in this case there may be a downslope component.

http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us0222.php

http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us1219.php

http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0208.php

Thanks, SG! Was ridging at 700mb what caused the bust of the Heavy Snow Warning in Jan 2008?

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Look at the 700mb panels in the bottom right and notice how 2/22/08, 12/19/08, 2/8/94 had very apparent SW flow at 700mb...the problem with this is there is that 700mb ridging evident at 30 hours and even 36 to an extent...notice also how tightly packed the heights are and in this event the packing is a bit looser somewhat...the 700mb level can screw you over alot on events and it can often go unnoticed by most forecasters...normally it bites you with a dry nose but in this case there may be a downslope component.

http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us0222.php

http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us1219.php

http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0208.php

pretty much why you see the qpf go from robust to lacking from buffalo to eastern portions of ny and into ct and MA.

Its probably also the reason the second wave is going to dissapoint a lot of people further to the south

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the first wave has a much much higher potential to give us accumulating snow than the second. So hope that Storm #1 goes as far south as possible to give us all snow as the next storm has minimal chance to deliver for us. Its just not digging as much in the plains, and the first storm is lowering heights over our area and supressing it since it has trended south. :thumbsup:

Looks like the first storm will have more moisture to work with also-- opposite of what the models said a couple of days ago. Definitely rooting for the first wave. :thumbsup:

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Current air temps sort of reflect how the colder air may be slightly more deeply entrenched over eastern sections of the CWA...Newark is 29 F but Montauk is already down to 23 F...and obviously no radiational cooling is going on...

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Thanks, SG! Was ridging at 700mb what caused the bust of the Heavy Snow Warning in Jan 2008?

Not really, just very marginal temps...it was a bit dry at 700mb though...here is the best example I have of how 700mb destroys a storm...Central OK saw no snow from this...zero...while NW OK and then Tulsa were absolutely pounded...notice how dry it is at 700mb...the theory is that the 500 low was so strong it basically killed itself by pulling in dry air from down in TX.....notice how the 700mb zone goes dead over C OK for a period and then revives again after 12Z...the snow satellite after this storm was hilarious with a gaping hole over OKC....just looking at 850mb you'd expect to see a massive TROWAL over C-OK but nada...

http://www.meteo.psu...2009/us0328.php

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Current air temps sort of reflect how the colder air may be slightly more deeply entrenched over eastern sections of the CWA...Newark is 29 F but Montauk is already down to 23 F...and obviously no radiational cooling is going on...

and im 19 to the west so that idea is out the wondow

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and im 19 to the west so that idea is out the wondow

You're up in the mountains, no? Butler is near Oakland and just south of W. Milford...I'm comparing sea level stations...

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SREF probabilities give from Trenton South a 30-50% chance of more than 2 inches of snow with the second wave with a 10% chance all the way up to Staten Island. It is much further north. Also a 10-20% chance of more than an inch for N NJ and NYC for the second event.

50-60% chance of more than 4 inches across N NJ and into NYC with the first event.

10-20% chance of greater than 6 inches across S NJ with the second event

Up to 10% chance of greater than 6 inches across NW NJ with the first event.

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Its a bizarre setup in that the confluence increases as you go east so very much like Warren county NJ saw more snow than JFK on 2/6/10 this is an event where it may rain in Erie PA but be all snow in N NJ. ...that said this has major bust potential if leading into the event the models still are showing the same thing as this run of the NAM is because even a 50 mile shift and someone forecast to get 5 inches will get squadoosh.

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