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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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I don't know what the Bridgeport guy does....sometimes the report is spot on and other times it's clearly mailed in. I think the market for automated sensors beyond what we have now is interesting.....That's right up your alley Alex, isn't it?

Yes. I know we used to talk on eastern about a site that you could actually buy ASOS equipment from-- the cost is horrendous though. Im sure if you, me and William chipped in we could make a nice set up ;)

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I don't know what the Bridgeport guy does....sometimes the report is spot on and other times it's clearly mailed in. I think the market for automated sensors beyond what we have now is interesting.....That's right up your alley Alex, isn't it?

We suspect there's different guys measuring at NYC (one of which submits integer totals and the other one who actually measures to the nearest .1 inch)-- maybe this is the case with Bridgeport too.

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We suspect there's different guys measuring at NYC (one of which submits integer totals and the other one who actually measures to the nearest .1 inch)-- maybe this is the case with Bridgeport too.

I think most of the people who measure at CPK (not sure how many total there are) round to the half or whole inch...but there is definitely at least one person who will report to the nearest tenth.

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I believe the surface temperature is 800 F...and the air pressure is such that it would crush virtually anything...make's Hell sound tolerable in comparison....

Haven't US or Russian built spacecraft made it through the Venusian atmosphere?

I doubt it made it to the surface as there is no images of the Venusian surface.

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I think most of the people who measure at CPK (not sure how many total there are) round to the half or whole inch...but there is definitely at least one person who will report to the nearest tenth.

Yes, SG do you remember back in 2005-06 when NYC had 39.9 inches of snow going into April and we were all upset because we thought they might miss 4 straight 40 inch seasons by 0.1 inch? We actually had a storm on 4/4 (a band of snow showers really) that got NYC the 0.1 it needed-- and actually Brooklyn, Queens and the south shore got 1-2 inches of snow that day-- I know JFK came in with 1 inch or so, quite an accomplishment, because we woke up that morning to temps in the mid 40s and sunny skies. Lawns were covered with a nice layer of snow by lunchtime and I remember YH remarked the snowfall rate was comparable to what he saw in Feb 2006. He might have a video saved from that event.

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I'm still hoping to see my aurora.

I think they have been running the NAM from Venus the past three weeks. That would explain it's terrible performance.

Heh, we might have to do that when we get those budget cuts. Raob once every 24 hours? Wow.

I've never seen an aurora either, from all the images I've seen online of them they look amazing-- like a kaleidoscope in the sky! :)

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If I extrapolated beyond hour 54, it looks good for the second wave, although I don't buy it.

10 to 15 mm roughly 4 to 6 inches of snow...for NW Jersey.

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The key with this event may be how well that NW-SE oriented tongue can organize ahead of the storm...that was what pounded the area during the 2/22/08 event...that tongue is evident on almost all the 18Z runs at 36 hours...its a question if it can be more potent that almost all the models currently indicate it being...the problem is the 36 hour soundings indicate mainly WNW flow 700mb and above...not exactly what you want for overrunning.

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Hopefully the start of a northward trend.

Through Hour 54 / 7:00 PM Monday...so it is all associated with the first wave...

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The key with this event may be how well that NW-SE oriented tongue can organize ahead of the storm...that was what pounded the area during the 2/22/08 event...that tongue is evident on almost all the 18Z runs at 36 hours...its a question if it can be more potent that almost all the models currently indicate it being...the problem is the 36 hour soundings indicate mainly WNW flow 700mb and above...not exactly what you want for overrunning.

agreed. The best part of these storms when you risk the changeover is the front part, and they have a history of over performing, but the 700mb flow is lacking here

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The key with this event may be how well that NW-SE oriented tongue can organize ahead of the storm...that was what pounded the area during the 2/22/08 event...that tongue is evident on almost all the 18Z runs at 36 hours...its a question if it can be more potent that almost all the models currently indicate it being...the problem is the 36 hour soundings indicate mainly WNW flow 700mb and above...not exactly what you want for overrunning.

SG, I remember that with 2/22/08, the snow moved in earlier and heavier than expected overnight and there wasnt enough time for the cold air to be scoured out. Once the milder air had moved in, we already had 6-8 inches of snow with just an hour or so of light rain or drizzle at the tail end.

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:lol:

If you look back through the years and what is actually required of weather observers, it's a tough job. I suppose doing it well would require that job to be a 24/7 effort if you think about it. I guess I was a little bit harsh in my assessment, but when the errors are glaring it just annoys me. But then again, I wouldn't be able to do it better than anyone else.....

And let's not forget, it gon' snow......

:snowman:

But is it really THAT hard? I do everything they do, minus ASOS augmenting, and submit my obs to the NWS without a paycheck.

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Yes, SG do you remember back in 2005-06 when NYC had 39.9 inches of snow going into April and we were all upset because we thought they might miss 4 straight 40 inch seasons by 0.1 inch? We actually had a storm on 4/4 (a band of snow showers really) that got NYC the 0.1 it needed-- and actually Brooklyn, Queens and the south shore got 1-2 inches of snow that day-- I know JFK came in with 1 inch or so, quite an accomplishment, because we woke up that morning to temps in the mid 40s and sunny skies. Lawns were covered with a nice layer of snow by lunchtime and I remember YH remarked the snowfall rate was comparable to what he saw in Feb 2006. He might have a video saved from that event.

That was one of the coolest snow events ever. I had an inch that disappeared in less than an hour. It was a snow thunderstorm, everything was exactly the same as a thunderstorm in the spring or summer, but it snowed, instead of rained.

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Through Hour 54 / 7:00 PM Monday...so it is all associated with the first wave...

ah ok, Tmagan was talking about the second wave, I wonder if he confused/combined the two. I wonder if wave 1 ends up suppressed, if wave 2 will be suppressed also.

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That was one of the coolest snow events ever. I had an inch that disappeared in less than an hour. It was a snow thunderstorm, everything was exactly the same as a thunderstorm in the spring or summer, but it snowed, instead of rained.

Man, it must've been down near 0 visibility for awhile. A nice surprise snowfall! And then the sun came out afterwards and it was all gone later that afternoon-- as if none had fallen in the first place.

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