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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Wouldn't take much to move that north, would it, Snow88?

It really wouldn't, Matt, you just need the PV to be a bit weaker.

For NYC, the first system is 2-4" of snow mixed with a bit of drizzle. Although the second system misses to the south, verbatim, it's certainly a bigger threat. The 0z GFS gives DC a bunch of powder from the storm, quite a contrast with the 60-70F temperatures the Eastern Seaboard is expecting Friday. Looks extremely cold after the overrunning, definitely well below average for late February. Could be the beginning of a nice wintry stretch with two moderate events next week, arctic cold, and then potentially a more favorable pattern for a coastal by 3/1.

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Does not appear as if anything is on its heels, good hit for NY, VT, MA, NH, ME.

The problem is that this area needs the storm to be mainly the second wave as the 0z GFS showed. If the first wave decides to amplify too much, then we'd almost certainly see mix-->rain as the confluence is just moving into place early next week, so we don't have much blocking early on and the -PNA rates to send everything fairly far north. If the main system turns out to be composed of the second wave ejecting from the western trough, then NYC metro is good for some snow. Obviously, the models are having difficulty resolving the break-down of the western trough considering the ECM and GFS have completely traded places in the last 24 hours. I'd certainly lean towards the system being more amplified/further north than the 0z GFS, given that we have a robust shortwave, a decent SE ridge, and only a weak NAO block. That definitely argues for an event tainted with precipitation type issues in NYC metro, but it doesn't mean that we can't see some wintry weather, especially the further north and west you go. It will probably be a few days before we know the answer, but the pattern argues against a big snowstorm with a -PNA and little blocking, especially if the storm is the first wave.

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Nothing is impressive about the euro run, nothing special brewing. Pretty boring.

Does it still have the cold weather next week as 12z showed?

Obviously, we're not going to get a large Nor'easter with a huge -PNA...that will have to wait until the pattern change expected in early March. We could still bump up our totals with some overrunning and SW flow events, though.

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Does it still have the cold weather next week as 12z showed?

Obviously, we're not going to get a large Nor'easter with a huge -PNA...that will have to wait until the pattern change expected in early March. We could still bump up our totals with some overrunning and SW flow events, though.

By later next week the euro shows the SE ridge flexing its muscle and warm weather begins to penetrate the eastern US...

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Strange that the Euro and GFS traded places. Maybe an off Euro run?

Not if the pattern evolves as it depicts, an early ejection results in a further north solution because the confluence and block are not well established. It is warm and after the initial wave cold enters for a short period of time. It has no second wave and no snow, then things warm again. Pretty poor looking pattern

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Not if the pattern evolves as it depicts, an early ejection results in a further north solution because the confluence and block are not well established. It is warm and after the initial wave cold enters for a short period of time. It has no second wave and no snow, then things warm again. Pretty poor looking pattern

Ugh this is a pretty big disappointment after the 12z ECM and 0z GFS showed a big snow threat and then very cold temperatures afterward.

It's going to be hard here with the -PNA, however, just not looking as if we get any big storms or consistent cold until March. Hopefully we score a couple inches here and there from SW flow events riding up the SE ridge.

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Ugh this is a pretty big disappointment after the 12z ECM and 0z GFS showed a big snow threat and then very cold temperatures afterward.

It's going to be hard here with the -PNA, however, just not looking as if we get any big storms or consistent cold until March. Hopefully we score a couple inches here and there from SW flow events riding up the SE ridge.

Nice rain later next week and warm temps. Pretty ugly. I am a pretty optimistic person, but this pattern is far from remotely supportive.

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pattern blew it's load this season premature...

I think we get it back in March for one more coastal. February always sucks in a strong La Niña, so this isn't too much of a surprise. 1955-56 is one of the top analogs for this winter, a strong La Niña in a -PDO cycle with a -NAO, and look at the Jekyll&Hyde pattern that existed in late winter:

February 1956 was mild in the Northeast:

March 1956 was very cold with a KU storm that dropped 10-20" in the NYC metro area:

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65+ degrees next Saturday on the Euro

850s are like +2C dude, are you kidding me? Not even close...probably mid 50s at best. Not sure what you're looking at.

Pattern evolution after Day 7 makes little sense on the 0z ECM OP; the 500mb isn't nearly as bad as I expected with a strong -EPO block, a 50/50 low, and a weak -NAO. However, as usual, it holds the energy back too long in the Southwest...with that low just sitting there for eternity, eventually enough ridging builds up to drive a huge cutter. Probably not going to happen, I'd bet it's another SW flow event, standard pattern for that with a -EPO/-PNA.

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850s are like +2C dude, are you kidding me? Not even close...probably mid 50s at best. Not sure what you're looking at.

Lol, dude I have the actual temperature data. I see what it's showing in front of my face, it's not like I am just making that up off of the pattern. It has a small area of western New Jersey into Eastern PA at or over 65 degrees at 18z Saturday.

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There is really no semblance of a -NAO on the Euro..there's a huge gyre spinning in the N Atlantic so I guess if you want to count that as a 50-50 low you can, even though for the majority of the time it's nowhere near 50/50 lat/lon. It passes over there briefly at 126 hrs but is very transient. The pacific is absolutely atrocious and is a complete mess, so given the lack of Atlantic support the pattern evolution looks like it would make sense to me.

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850s are like +2C dude, are you kidding me? Not even close...probably mid 50s at best. Not sure what you're looking at.

Pattern evolution after Day 7 makes little sense on the 0z ECM OP; the 500mb isn't nearly as bad as I expected with a strong -EPO block, a 50/50 low, and a weak -NAO. However, as usual, it holds the energy back too long in the Southwest...with that low just sitting there for eternity, eventually enough ridging builds up to drive a huge cutter. Probably not going to happen, I'd bet it's another SW flow event, standard pattern for that with a -EPO/-PNA.

It is that warm dude. Low is to our west, strong WAA with temps surging. The entire northeast pretty much seeing rain. Strong southerly winds...

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There is really no semblance of a -NAO on the Euro..there's a huge gyre spinning in the N Atlantic so I guess if you want to count that as a 50-50 low you can, even though for the majority of the time it's nowhere near 50/50 lat/lon. It passes over there briefly at 126 hrs but is very transient. The pacific is absolutely atrocious and is a complete mess, so given the lack of Atlantic support the pattern evolution looks like it would make sense to me.

YEP

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There is really no semblance of a -NAO on the Euro..there's a huge gyre spinning in the N Atlantic so I guess if you want to count that as a 50-50 low you can, even though for the majority of the time it's nowhere near 50/50 lat/lon. It passes over there briefly at 126 hrs but is very transient. The pacific is absolutely atrocious and is a complete mess, so given the lack of Atlantic support the pattern evolution looks like it would make sense to me.

Yeah verbatim its ugly...but what it does with that plains s/w is laughable between 204-240. Doubt it goes like that. It totally focuses every ounce of energy on a little piece riding up the ridge east of the Rockies.

Regardless, probably fruitless arguing an OP run beyond 6 days anyway...nevermind at 234 hours.

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