SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 SG thinks the 6z/18z runs have had a cold bias, so we'll see. I should have added the 18Z NAM normally is warmer/north/west as we saw on this run...I'd expect the 00Z NAM wil come south from 18z and the GFS will come north from its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like they are having computer problems again. This run is stuck at 117hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Good question. I just checked Mount Holly's updated forecast for Somerville, and they're calling for all rain Sunday night into Monday morning. Yet Upton is calling for snow and 1 to 3 inches for Newark. What a difference between the forecast offices, wow. How does Mount Holly believe that it will be all rain? Not even a mention of a mix in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I should have added the 18Z NAM normally is warmer/north/west as we saw on this run...I'd expect the 00Z NAM wil come south from 18z and the GFS will come north from its 18z run. Thanks, SG-- if we averaged out the 18z NAM and GFS, where would the mean of the two runs leave us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You are probably all snow according to soundings, but it gets a little warm above 850, getting to 0.0 so you could get some sleet mixed in, but it looks like mostly snow on this run. The surface temps are also a little above freezing towards the end of the main precipitation. KJFK about 4 miles from here, Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I thought we had a long, drawn out discussion on how the biases that plagued the off runs had been largely corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Their super-computer is stuck at 117 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Their super-computer is stuck at 117 hrs. Time for a reboot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I thought we had a long, drawn out discussion on how the biases that plagued the off runs had been largely corrected. Someone needs to tell the models that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 anyone know where i can find the seasonal snowfall total and record for bdr.. i lost the site.. The Bridgeport data at Sikorsky Airport is not representative of the snowfall climatology of the South Shore of western CT, IMO. They have had a lot of measurement problems over the years and I would argue that the 27 to 28 inch annual average is a good 6 to 8 inches short of reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You are probably all snow according to soundings, but it gets a little warm above 850, getting to 0.0 so you could get some sleet mixed in, but it looks like mostly snow on this run. The surface temps are also a little above freezing towards the end of the main precipitation. Thanks-- lets see if this is a trend or a 6z/18z blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Their super-computer is stuck at 117 hrs. Where's Watson when you need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The Bridgeport data at Sikorsky Airport is not representative of the snowfall climatology of the South Shore of western CT, IMO. They have had a lot of measurement problems over the years and I would argue that the 27 to 28 inch annual average is a good 6 to 8 inches short of reality... Isnt that location basically in the middle of the sound? I would argue that they need to move away from recording "climatology" in such locations which arent representative of their local area and also need to get away from their airport fetish (much the same with JFK which is horrendous in measuring snowfall.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Their super-computer is stuck at 117 hrs. Computer is not stuck, there seems to be an issue getting products on the web. Look at status page for model runs, 18Z is complete! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/#TARGET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Where's Watson when you need him? Watson is just Sherlock Holmes' side kick.... we need the big dog now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Isnt that location basically in the middle of the sound? I would argue that they need to move away from recording "climatology" in such locations which arent representative of their local area and also need to get away from their airport fetish (much the same with JFK which is horrendous in measuring snowfall.) It juts out just a bit in a little peninsula...it is not in the middle of the Sound...why would you think for a moment that there would be an airport in the middle of Long Island Sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It juts out just a bit in a little peninsula...it is not in the middle of the Sound... Yes, but it has water on three sides I think. The "middle of the sound" comment was the use of artistic license on my part to show how that location isnt representative of SW CT. This is where we need to raise funds to get official totals measured in more region-appropriate locations lol. I agree that the snowfall totals are suspect, as they are with JFK, I just wish we could create a bigger COOP network. There arent any in my area (not that Im aware of) and I dont know of any in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yes, but it has water on three sides I think. This is where we need to raise funds to get official totals measured in more region-appropriate locations lol. I agree that the snowfall totals are suspect, as they are with JFK, I just wish we could create a bigger COOP network. There arent any in my area (not that Im aware of) and I dont know of any in SW CT. I can get to that airport in 15 minutes, and I have had over 70 inches. What are they reporting? My guess would be like 30, they are usually REALLY conservative (and really wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well, they said they were having ongoing computer problems earlier this week, so I don't know. There is definitely a problem somewhere along the way with their computers. Computer is not stuck, there seems to be an issue getting products on the web. Look at status page for model runs, 18Z is complete! http://www.nco.ncep....rodstat/#TARGET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I can get to that airport in 15 minutes, and I have had over 70 inches. What are they reporting? My guess would be like 30, they are usually REALLY conservative (and really wrong). Bridgeport has measured 56.4" this winter..which, for their location, is probably fairly accurate. Their measurements have been reasonably good the last 5 years or so. But the climate record goes back decades, and that was not the case during the 20th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The Bridgeport data at Sikorsky Airport is not representative of the snowfall climatology of the South Shore of western CT, IMO. They have had a lot of measurement problems over the years and I would argue that the 27 to 28 inch annual average is a good 6 to 8 inches short of reality... i agree also it is right on the water pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Bridgeport has measured 56.4" this winter..which, for their location, is probably fairly accurate. Their measurements have been reasonably good the last 5 years or so. But the climate record goes back decades, and that was not the case during the 20th century. 42 inches in January must've been a record for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Clown maps...warning event in immediate suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 i agree also it is right on the water pretty much For example, some long term records at New Haven show a 37" annual average...and I'd argue average snowfall is pretty similar in those towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Bridgeport has measured 56.4" this winter..which, for their location, is probably fairly accurate. Their measurements have been reasonably good the last 5 years or so. But the climate record goes back decades, and that was not the case during the 20th century. Check carefully some of the observers stats though William. I have noticed over the last few years there are some perfect 10:1 ratios on snow measurement, which leads me to believe the observer is simply mailing it in...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Could you provide a link where you got this? My site is not updating because of the computer issues at the moment. i would like to add the link to my blog. Clown maps...warning event in immediate suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 42 inches in January must've been a record for them. No, Bridgeport measured 47.0" in February 1934. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Check carefully some of the observers stats though William. I have noticed over the last few years there are some perfect 10:1 ratios on snow measurement, which leads me to believe the observer is simply mailing it in...... heh and two months with exact integer snowfalls-- big red flags right there. The JFK 1/26-27 measurement was also 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Check carefully some of the observers stats though William. I have noticed over the last few years there are some perfect 10:1 ratios on snow measurement, which leads me to believe the observer is simply mailing it in...... They may be "mailing it in"...but at least they are now in the ballpark...and huge errors seem to be a thing of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 No, Bridgeport measured 47.0" in February 1934. Their records go that far back? wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.