tmagan Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the meso models are all over the place. Can't buy into any of their solutions right now for either wave. The second wave was always a non-event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 12z WRF-ARW has the right combination of cold air and precipitation for Northern New Jersey and NYC. I am attaching the images at 48 hrs from the NWS site, but I also have access through Wright-Weather to the soundings and they show it plenty cold at all levels for snow in Northern New Jersey and NYC through at least 48 hours and probably the whole storm. I also have the snow output from Wright-Weather for this model and it shows 2-4 inches by 48 hours with more to come. This is probably the best case scenario for us, so there is some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The WRF-NMM is not that far off from the WRF-NMM either with most of Northern New Jersey also in the 2-4 inch range with a little more still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The second wave was always a non-event for us. Sounds like you agree that we'll have to wait for the first week of March for our next significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 18z GFS is coming in colder this run through 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 At 39 hrs it is still colder with snow in all of NNJ and NYC the .1 line is into NYC with the .25 line hitting Warren County, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 At 42 hrs it is all snow in NNJ and NYC with 3-4 inches having fallen in most places by this time and still more coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 At 45 hrs the 850 line runs from Belividere, Warren County to Morristown, to NYC. Areas to the north are probably all snow with another 2-3 inches on top of what has already fallen. This is a big hit for Northern New Jersey and NYC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 At 48 hrs the 850 line starts to sink south slightly with light snow still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Through 48 hrs all of N NJ and almost east to NYC is .5+ qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Darn, nobody down in NYC excited about that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Darn, nobody down in NYC excited about that run? definately encouraging that it went towards the euro track with the low, its weaker and more strung out too. NYC on Northwest is basically all snow, 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The GFS snow accumulation map on StormVista is showing 2-4 inches across northern NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice run. .50" qpf, all snow. Maybe a little sleet at end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It still keeps the 2nd wave south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Darn, nobody down in NYC excited about that run? SG thinks the 6z/18z runs have had a cold bias, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice run. .50" qpf, all snow. Maybe a little sleet at end. What is it down this way 70% snow/30% sleet? Im still leery of this because of the 6z/18z run antics this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I checked sounding on Wright-Weather and I did not see any sign of sleet. Much colder this run. Nice run. .50" qpf, all snow. Maybe a little sleet at end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well, the Euro and the WRF-ARW and NMM are all colder and all snow. So, I don't know. Seems like the NAM is too warm and too far north. SG thinks the 6z/18z runs have had a cold bias, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What is your nearest airport code? I will check soundings for you. What is it down this way 70% snow/30% sleet? Im still leery of this because of the 6z/18z run antics this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What is your nearest airport code? I will check soundings for you. KJFK about 4 miles from here, Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wright-Weather snowfall accumulation map from the 18z GFS shows 1-2 inches from about Trenton-Asbury Park north to Route 78, then 2-4 inches north to Route 80, then 4-6 inches for all areas north of Route 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 anyone know where i can find the seasonal snowfall total and record for bdr.. i lost the site.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 anyone know where i can find the seasonal snowfall total and record for bdr.. i lost the site.. $5 next time mister lol.... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/SnowClimo/SnowClimoMain1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Don't forget that the 18z has a historical suppressive bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 anyone know where i can find the seasonal snowfall total and record for bdr.. i lost the site.. Record is 75.7" in 1995-1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 $5 next time mister lol.... http://www.erh.noaa....ClimoMain1.html LOL thanks i appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Don't forget that the 18z has a historical suppressive bias Dont forget that the euro, ggem, and now the gfs have similar solutions. Cant wait to see what the other short range models have. The Nam is just to inconsistent to be used for forecasting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I don't know if you saw my previous posts, but the WRF-ARW and NMM show something similar as well. The NAM is pretty much on its own at this point. Dont forget that the euro, ggem, and now the gfs have similar solutions. Cant wait to see what the other short range models have. The Nam is just to inconsistent to be used for forecasting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I just checked Mount Holly's updated forecast for Somerville, and they're calling for all rain Sunday night into Monday morning. Yet Upton is calling for snow and 1 to 3 inches for Newark. What a difference between the forecast offices, wow. How does Mount Holly believe that it will be all rain? Not even a mention of a mix in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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