RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Pretty weak at 72 hours..good stuff doesn't get much farther north of the M/D line ok well lets start with a good sign for first wave being colder and south. and take it from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Around .20" with the first wave (a little more, a little less in some spots). .25+" amounts are over NW NJ, SE NY and CT (NE of NYC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not worried about exact model QPF. With such a tight thermal gradient, the Mon event will likely be an overperformer near the -5C 850 mb line, and based on the Euro that would be from about Orange County NY ESE to eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not worried about exact model QPF. With such a tight thermal gradient, the Mon event will likely be an overperformer near the -5C 850 mb line, and based on the Euro that would be from about Orange County NY ESE to eastern LI. 12z GFS is printing out .71" of qpf (all frozen) for MGJ for the Mon event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Its amazing how virtually every non-American model is south with the first event...usually when that happens it means the American models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It looks like the Euro builds the ridge a little more north of MN/ND than the GFS so its storm track is further south at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 sw flow events always over perform, as long as you can keep them cold enough. Expect the qpf on the first wave increases over the next two days and if we can keep the ggem/ukmet/euro thermal profiles we could have a nice little event. 2nd wave is losing legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Above AVG bust potential with both events and nowcasting seems likely because many models are all over the place and the event is about 36 hours from the start..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Above AVG bust potential with both events and nowcasting seems likely because many models are all over the place and the event is about 36 hours from the start..... Right now it looks like the 2nd event is basically toast, this is a one event deal now and it seems while it may stay cold enough for sleet or snow I'm more worried again like the 1st round of the 2 part event a few weeks back that the heaviest snow could be 50-75 miles north of most of the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 tremendous ridge to the s and e of greenland really tries to get west and build into greenland on the euro at 200 hours but doesnt look like its gonna be able to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Right now it looks like the 2nd event is basically toast, this is a one event deal now and it seems while it may stay cold enough for sleet or snow I'm more worried again like the 1st round of the 2 part event a few weeks back that the heaviest snow could be 50-75 miles north of most of the NYC metro. Yeah it always seems like in these types events that the best over-running goes north of the city.....2 weeks ago we got about a half inch on the 1st part...whit ct north got 3-6...and i believe boston got 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah it always seems like in these types events that the best over-running goes north of the city.....2 weeks ago we got about a half inch on the 1st part...whit ct north got 3-6...and i believe boston got 8 Honestly, 2/8/94 is the only event of this sort ever that I can recall that produced major snows over NYC...it takes an extraordinary setup to get the bigger snow down near 40N in these systems....we're very close to it with this one but we may not be close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Honestly, 2/8/94 is the only event of this sort ever that I can recall that produced major snows over NYC...it takes an extraordinary setup to get the bigger snow down near 40N in these systems....we're very close to it with this one but we may not be close enough. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94-SeaLevelPressure.html Your memory is great for our area...so glad your back here this winter from okc...its been great to see ur post all winter. I would like to see the amrican models come further south....06z where def a thing of beauty....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 http://www.njfreeway...elPressure.html Your memory is great for our area...so glad your back here this winter from okc...its been great to see ur post all winter. I would like to see the amrican models come further south....06z where def a thing of beauty....... The 18 runs probably will, we saw this with the prior event where the off hour runs were consistently colder and south...I don't know why this happens with these storms but it always seems to occur that the 06 and 18 runs are colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 euro is cold ans snowy after the next lakes cutter blocking looks to try to make a come back with a lot of cold air in canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z ECMWF has a nice hit from the PA/NY border, into SE NY and western CT. **EDIT FOR TYPO** QPF is not terribly impressive, but some areas get close to 0.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Honestly, 2/8/94 is the only event of this sort ever that I can recall that produced major snows over NYC...it takes an extraordinary setup to get the bigger snow down near 40N in these systems....we're very close to it with this one but we may not be close enough. That's what makes me wonder why everyone was rooting on overrunning snows earlier on in the season, when we rarely do well in those. Another one I can think of is 2/22/08 (this would be on the three year anniversary of that one heh), when we got 6-8 inches and never got the changeover which was predicted. That was the only significant snow storm that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That's what makes me wonder why everyone was rooting on overrunning snows earlier on in the season, when we rarely do well in those. Another one I can think of is 2/22/08 (this would be on the three year anniversary of that one heh), when we got 6-8 inches and never got the changeover which was predicted. That was the only significant snow storm that winter. There are two ways to get bigger overrunning snows...you need a very weak system (2/22/08 is a great example of that) the low was just not that strong which prevented the overly fast WAA from occurring and the big high to the NE did the work...the other is a more south-north type overrunning setup usually with a coastal low that hugs the coast or tracks just inland....12/14/03 is a good example...SW flow events generally need to be weak in order to be decent snow producers...that was the issue with the last event, it was simply too strong...this one is at least fairly strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 There are two ways to get bigger overrunning snows...you need a very weak system (2/22/08 is a great example of that) the low was just not that strong which prevented the overly fast WAA from occurring and the big high to the NE did the work...the other is a more south-north type overrunning setup usually with a coastal low that hugs the coast or tracks just inland....12/14/03 is a good example...SW flow events generally need to be weak in order to be decent snow producers...that was the issue with the last event, it was simply too strong...this one is at least fairly strung out. Thanks, SG, I was wondering about that-- I remember you said that the two events in Feb 1994 were weak also, and PD2 was a massive overrunning event, but the storm center itself was fairly weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 15z SREF looks quite warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The euro is pretty cold, but is a bit light on QPF..which it always is. Good run IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 <br />Honestly, 2/8/94 is the only event of this sort ever that I can recall that produced major snows over NYC...it takes an extraordinary setup to get the bigger snow down near 40N in these systems....we're very close to it with this one but we may not be close enough.<br /><br /><br /><br />What is suprisingly not talked about more was the fact that temps dropped from the upper 20s to 10-12 degrees when the heaviest Thundersnow bands came through.This caused many windshield wipers to freeze solid and break (like mine did)and the traffic nightmare that ensued was one of the worst I have ever seen around here.That original forecast was for 4-6 inches of snow by Wednesday morning and we had those amounts in the first 2-3 hours of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What is amazing is that the American model remains north with this system and the European model remains south. One of them is wrong. Anyone have any guesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> What is suprisingly not talked about more was the fact that temps dropped from the upper 20s to 10-12 degrees when the heaviest Thundersnow bands came through.This caused many windshield wipers to freeze solid and break (like mine did)and the traffic nightmare that ensued was one of the worst I have ever seen around here.That original forecast was for 4-6 inches of snow by Wednesday morning and we had those amounts in the first 2-3 hours of the event. That event right there is why I love daytime events much more than night time ones. Spectacular awesomeness seeing the snowcover increase right before your eyes with probably the fastest daytime snowfall rates I have ever seen (with thundersnow and lightning visible during the day!) I have yet to see anything like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18Z NAM is a disaster for NYC metro -nothing from the 1st and nothing from the 2nd -- all in all the trending of the models today overall suggests non - events for both systems................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18Z NAM is a disaster for NYC metro -nothing from the 1st and nothing from the 2nd -- all in all the trending of the models today overall suggests non - events for both systems................ So we're back where we started a few days ago lol. Is it showing the first going north of our area and the second going south? So basically the Philly-NYC area is screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the meso models are all over the place. Can't buy into any of their solutions right now for either wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So we're back where we started a few days ago lol. Is it showing the first going north of our area and the second going south? So basically the Philly-NYC area is screwed. We'll have this storm figured out by Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 <br />That event right there is why I love daytime events much more than night time ones. Spectacular awesomeness seeing the snowcover increase right before your eyes with probably the fastest daytime snowfall rates I have ever seen (with thundersnow and lightning visible during the day!)<br /><br /><br />I have yet to see anything like that again.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />DEC 30 2000 had similar rates.That is the only other time I saw snow like that during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That event right there is why I love daytime events much more than night time ones. Spectacular awesomeness seeing the snowcover increase right before your eyes with probably the fastest daytime snowfall rates I have ever seen (with thundersnow and lightning visible during the day!) I have yet to see anything like that again. That was a butchered event from the forecasts 1-2 days prior to the day of the storm itself....the storm was anticipated to be rain 4-5 days out and beyond, then it was expected to go south...it was not til the morning of the 7th that the watches finally went out and only advisories were posted the morning of for 2-4 inches...there was 4 inches in most places by 11am....it was more or less another situation of a megaband...there is no radar imagery of the event as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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