winterwarlock Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 wow the model hugging in this thread? There has been no consensus with the models, they have flip flopped so badly with these two systems. I see people hyped about 8 inch snows and then come crashing to earth with the next run. Someone even started talking about end of the next week getting 10-15 inches from a storm. Can we be objective about the analysis here. Lots to be determined with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We are talking about the models flipping. That is the point. I don't see anyone jumping off a bridge, just being concerned with this particular model run. wow the model hugging in this thread? There has been no consensus with the models, they have flip flopped so badly with these two systems. I see people hyped about 8 inch snows and then come crashing to earth with the next run. Someone even started talking about end of the next week getting 10-15 inches from a storm. Can we be objective about the analysis here. Lots to be determined with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z Royal Gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z NAM very close to a worst possible outcome....too far north with first wave (maybe an inch or two snow) , too far south with second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z GFS also pushes the 850's north of NYC after a few inches of snow but keeps surface temps below freezing in Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Lots more precip than the NAM but a little too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think it's safe to say the guidance has trended warmer this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yes, worst possible outcome. Warmer with the first wave and the second one misses to the south. I think it's safe to say the guidance has trended warmer this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yes, worst possible outcome. Warmer with the first wave and the second one misses to the south. whatever - this looks to be no big deal - a few inches if that -- for NYC Metro from the first and a complete miss for the second........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 whatever - this looks to be no big deal - a few inches if that -- for NYC Metro from the first and a complete miss for the second........ No big deal? Snowpack is gone and we're on the verge of a snowless february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The RGEM/GGEM actually trended colder. The major factor is how fast the polar vortex moves and how far south it presses. The RGEM/GGEM have the vortex about 100 miles SE of the NAM and GFS by Mon morning. That small of a difference makes a huge difference on the storm track and precip. type for the NYC area. I think it's safe to say the guidance has trended warmer this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I feel like we're about to repeat last year except a month earlier with the warm Spring and hot summer. Thank god we have Dec and Jan though because I don't see blocking coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 No big deal? Snowpack is gone and we're on the verge of a snowless february. We had the snow pack for 54-55 days in a row, suddenly, that is no big deal? Come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You guys are unreal when it comes to snow. If we get 2 or 3 inches i will be completely satisfied. Heck i just want to see snow falling, because it will make the rest of the general public mad that its 60 degrees one day and the next there is snow on the ground. Not every storm is going to be 8 inches plus. Once again there is very little consistency within 84 hours with these models. Like someone said a few days ago the majority of us average 25-30 inches of snow a year for a reason. Pretty much from dec 27th on any snow has been gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Some of you guys are in full meltdown mode. Get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z UKMET is farther north--bringing good snows to most of NJ with the second event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z UKMET is farther north--bringing good snows to most of NJ with the second event It is a decent hit for most of nj, but so far the UK standa alone. How were the GEFS? assuming not too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 One good thing about the UKMET is it's less prone to huge run to run changes than the other models, in my experience. 12z UKMET is farther north--bringing good snows to most of NJ with the second event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 IMO we have a better shot w/ the second wave, but in order for it to happen we've got to hope the first wave is as far north as possible. In other words, if the first event is a near miss/snow to rain for NYC, the second storm will likely be nothing due to the suppression in the wake of the first sfc low. What we should be hoping for is rain, temps approaching 45-50 on Monday, followed by dramatic cooling and snow w/ the 2nd wave by Mon night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 IMO we have a better shot w/ the second wave, but in order for it to happen we've got to hope the first wave is as far north as possible. In other words, if the first event is a near miss/snow to rain for NYC, the second storm will likely be nothing due to the suppression in the wake of the first sfc low. What we should be hoping for is rain, temps approaching 45-50 on Monday, followed by dramatic cooling and snow w/ the 2nd wave by Mon night. To tell you the truth Tom, for NYC and LI, I actually think the reverse. Precipitation chances on the second wave are looking increasingly slim from NYC north. Looking at some higher resolution models, being to the northeast may be most helpful with the first wave...looking at how cold air will bleed down from New England. Northeast LI seems in a better spot this time than NYC, particularly southern NYC. This sort of set-up takes place once in a while during the winter. The second wave seems too far south, and if I had to pick a spot that seems in potentially the biggest screw zone, it might be Monmouth County based on 12z guidance....with NYC and Long Island coming right after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 being to the northeast may be most helpful with the first wave... 100% correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 seriously....this is a timing issue. and with the volatile changes in the atmosphere from one day to the next, several miles with the PV or a few hrs faster or slower makes BIG difference. more-so than the usual. us models trended warmer then south but uk is better and rgem is colder in general. lets see the EC, keep the glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It may not necessarily work like that. A faster polar vortex like the UKMET shows would help to suppress the 1st wave enough to keep it weaker and tracking off the central NJ coast instead of along the south coast of New England. Such a scenario would also have the polar vortex far enough east over the Canadian Maritimes by the time the 2nd wave got to our area that it would have less suppressing impact. IMO we have a better shot w/ the second wave, but in order for it to happen we've got to hope the first wave is as far north as possible. In other words, if the first event is a near miss/snow to rain for NYC, the second storm will likely be nothing due to the suppression in the wake of the first sfc low. What we should be hoping for is rain, temps approaching 45-50 on Monday, followed by dramatic cooling and snow w/ the 2nd wave by Mon night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It may not necessarily work like that. A faster polar vortex like the UKMET shows would help to suppress the 1st wave enough to keep it weaker and tracking off the central NJ coast instead of along the south coast of New England, and also allow more room for the 2nd wave to amplify. I see. i was wondering about this. thank you for simple yet understanding explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z Euro farther south with the first event. 54 hours, snowing north of PHL...probably an area of mixing north of PHL too. Surface low is straddling the M/D line. 850 0c line over PHL. 32 F isotherm runs right through the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 60 hours low escapes east...850's never get any farther north. Just shy of 0.25" through that time. Colder and south for sure when compared to it's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 A bit more amped up with the second wave through 60 hrs...closed off at H5 over IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 A bit more amped up with the second wave through 60 hrs...closed off at H5 over IA very good sign......bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 A bit further north with the second event, but not too much. Nice event for DC at 66 hrs. Light QPF north of PHL at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Pretty weak at 72 hours..good stuff doesn't get much farther north of the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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