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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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wow the model hugging in this thread? There has been no consensus with the models, they have flip flopped so badly with these two systems. I see people hyped about 8 inch snows and then come crashing to earth with the next run. Someone even started talking about end of the next week getting 10-15 inches from a storm.

Can we be objective about the analysis here. Lots to be determined with this one

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We are talking about the models flipping. That is the point. I don't see anyone jumping off a bridge, just being concerned with this particular model run.

wow the model hugging in this thread? There has been no consensus with the models, they have flip flopped so badly with these two systems. I see people hyped about 8 inch snows and then come crashing to earth with the next run. Someone even started talking about end of the next week getting 10-15 inches from a storm.

Can we be objective about the analysis here. Lots to be determined with this one

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12z NAM very close to a worst possible outcome....too far north with first wave (maybe an inch or two snow) , too far south with second.

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The RGEM/GGEM actually trended colder. The major factor is how fast the polar vortex moves and how far south it presses. The RGEM/GGEM have the vortex about 100 miles SE of the NAM and GFS by Mon morning. That small of a difference makes a huge difference on the storm track and precip. type for the NYC area.

I think it's safe to say the guidance has trended warmer this cycle.

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You guys are unreal when it comes to snow. If we get 2 or 3 inches i will be completely satisfied. Heck i just want to see snow falling, because it will make the rest of the general public mad that its 60 degrees one day and the next there is snow on the ground. Not every storm is going to be 8 inches plus. Once again there is very little consistency within 84 hours with these models. Like someone said a few days ago the majority of us average 25-30 inches of snow a year for a reason. Pretty much from dec 27th on any snow has been gravy.

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IMO we have a better shot w/ the second wave, but in order for it to happen we've got to hope the first wave is as far north as possible. In other words, if the first event is a near miss/snow to rain for NYC, the second storm will likely be nothing due to the suppression in the wake of the first sfc low. What we should be hoping for is rain, temps approaching 45-50 on Monday, followed by dramatic cooling and snow w/ the 2nd wave by Mon night.

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IMO we have a better shot w/ the second wave, but in order for it to happen we've got to hope the first wave is as far north as possible. In other words, if the first event is a near miss/snow to rain for NYC, the second storm will likely be nothing due to the suppression in the wake of the first sfc low. What we should be hoping for is rain, temps approaching 45-50 on Monday, followed by dramatic cooling and snow w/ the 2nd wave by Mon night.

To tell you the truth Tom, for NYC and LI, I actually think the reverse. Precipitation chances on the second wave are looking increasingly slim from NYC north. Looking at some higher resolution models, being to the northeast may be most helpful with the first wave...looking at how cold air will bleed down from New England. Northeast LI seems in a better spot this time than NYC, particularly southern NYC. This sort of set-up takes place once in a while during the winter.

The second wave seems too far south, and if I had to pick a spot that seems in potentially the biggest screw zone, it might be Monmouth County based on 12z guidance....with NYC and Long Island coming right after that.

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seriously....this is a timing issue. and with the volatile changes in the atmosphere from one day to the next, several miles with the PV or a few hrs faster or slower makes BIG difference. more-so than the usual. us models trended warmer then south but uk is better and rgem is colder in general. lets see the EC, keep the glass half full.

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It may not necessarily work like that. A faster polar vortex like the UKMET shows would help to suppress the 1st wave enough to keep it weaker and tracking off the central NJ coast instead of along the south coast of New England. Such a scenario would also have the polar vortex far enough east over the Canadian Maritimes by the time the 2nd wave got to our area that it would have less suppressing impact.

IMO we have a better shot w/ the second wave, but in order for it to happen we've got to hope the first wave is as far north as possible. In other words, if the first event is a near miss/snow to rain for NYC, the second storm will likely be nothing due to the suppression in the wake of the first sfc low. What we should be hoping for is rain, temps approaching 45-50 on Monday, followed by dramatic cooling and snow w/ the 2nd wave by Mon night.

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It may not necessarily work like that. A faster polar vortex like the UKMET shows would help to suppress the 1st wave enough to keep it weaker and tracking off the central NJ coast instead of along the south coast of New England, and also allow more room for the 2nd wave to amplify.

I see. i was wondering about this. thank you for simple yet understanding explanation.

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