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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Per 06z nam, NYC and especially inland burbs north and west do very well with first low; looks like second low impacts only south NJ latitude. Centarl NJ misses out on both lows. Verbatim off this run which of course may not necessarily be the ultimate outcome.

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storm vista snow algorithms

8-12": Southern Delaware westward through Maryland over DC (South of BWI) into WVA.

4-8" all of MD into Cape May/SNJ into Central PA...back over N-Central NJ, basically over my house..including NYC and LI...also all of Connecticut except a far sliver on the Northeast side.

2-4" Everywhere except for a small area directly over Philly back westward into an area of Central-Eastern PA...and eastward from there to Southern Monmouth, North-Central Burlington, and Ocean Counties in NJ. Cutoff in SNE runs NW to SE through MA.

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Second low is handled similarly as well. Almost identical solutions between the gfs and nam 06z runs for both lows.

6z GFS is about .5" QPF for NYC metro, all snow, from the first wave. The second wave passes well to the south, giving a moderate snowfall from Southern NJ to DC area.

The NAM, GFS, and ECM are coming into significant consensus regarding the storm. Should be a fun event to follow.

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The NAM and GFS both give Northern New Jersey 2-10 inches of snow on Sunday night to Monday morning. The long range GFS ensemble mean also keeps 850 temps below 0 for the next 16 days, the entire time. The GFS ensemble mean appears to have done better with this impending event than any single model.

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Looks like a solid warning criteria snowfall of 5-8 inches for NYC and all of LI between Sunday night and Monday evening. 6Z GFS and NAM suggest 1 inch per hour snow late Sunday night with excellent snow growth and omega values. Moderate to heavy snowall for 5-6 hours, with no rain mixing, maybe just some sleet at the end. We might get some light snow into late Monday night as the second piece moves off the coast, looks much better south for a 4-8 inch event in the Mid Atlantic. Tuesday struggles to get out of the teens for highs with significant snowcover. Wednesday and Thursday struggle to 28-30 for highs, but the sun will make it feel tolerable. Friday and into next weekend is morphing into a major snowstorm for the area, with cuttter idea going off the table more and more on the GFS ensemble mean and becoming another overunning event morphing and becoming a potent Miller B for NYC, LI and New England. Arctic high in Canada is so strong it looks to deliver the goods. February 25-27th stand the best chance for another warning event that could be prolonged and maybe very potent. I am thinking 10-15 inch event for the long range event next weekend. I would not be surprised if we get 10-20 inches of new snow area wide between 2/20-2/28 as the GFS is suggesting possibly. Looks like we are entering another strong to epic pattern again. I am almost surprised it is coming back this strong. So i think we see two warning events this upcoming week, one Sunday night through Monday evening and another Friday through a portion of next weekend. Let's lock it up.

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Looks like a solid warning criteria snowfall of 5-8 inches for NYC and all of LI between Sunday night and Monday evening. 6Z GFS and NAM suggest 1 inch per hour snow late Sunday night with excellent snow growth and omega values. Moderate to heavy snowall for 5-6 hours, with no rain mixing, maybe just some sleet at the end. We might get some light snow into late Monday night as the second piece moves off the coast, looks much better south for a 4-8 inch event in the Mid Atlantic. Tuesday struggles to get out of the teens for highs with significant snowcover. Wednesday and Thursday struggle to 28-30 for highs, but the sun will make it feel tolerable. Friday and into next weekend is morphing into a major snowstorm for the area, with cuttter idea going off the table more and more on the GFS ensemble mean and becoming another overunning event morphing and becoming a potent Miller B for NYC, LI and New England. Arctic high in Canada is so strong it looks to deliver the goods. February 25-27th stand the best chance for another warning event that could be prolonged and maybe very potent. I am thinking 10-15 inch event for the long range event next weekend. I would not be surprised if we get 10-20 inches of new snow area wide between 2/20-2/28 as the GFS is suggesting possibly. Looks like we are entering another strong to epic pattern again. I am almost surprised it is coming back this strong. So i think we see two warning events this upcoming week, one Sunday night through Monday evening and another Friday through a portion of next weekend. Let's lock it up.

Based off the 06z runs. I's rather wait for the 12z runs before buying into any of this (maybe). SREF's went a little drier already.

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Back in 2008 we picked up a decent snow several days after we were in the 60's.

These Nina patterns have some big swings.

http://www.erh.noaa....rm02222008.html

That storm was an overperformer. I was forecasted to get 2-4 inches of snow before changing to rain. At the end, I got 7 inches of snow with a little rain. The storm was modeled to phase and become 1 big wave. The storm never phased and it hit the area with 2 waves of precip.:snowman:

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That storm was an overperformer. I was forecasted to get 2-4 inches of snow before changing to rain. At the end, I got 7 inches of snow with a little rain. The storm was modeled to phase and become 1 big wave. The storm never phased and it hit the area with 2 waves of precip.:snowman:

We really needed that storm to at least crack double digit snowfall amounts for the season.

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