Manny Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Good thing my cache didn't clear on PSU ewall, I would have missed last nights 06z NAM which predicted a high of 49 degrees here. lolz way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 .5" liquid up to Cape May and SNJ, .75" for DC (awesome, rooting for them). Massive uber screw zone over Philly and Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Its showing up rather well that the models which are a hit for NYC on event #1 are not for event 2 and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Its showing up rather well that the models which are a hit for NYC on event #1 are not for event 2 and vice versa. Let's not forget the 00z NAM which found a way, in the alternate universe it runs on, to give us snow with both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Per 06z nam, NYC and especially inland burbs north and west do very well with first low; looks like second low impacts only south NJ latitude. Centarl NJ misses out on both lows. Verbatim off this run which of course may not necessarily be the ultimate outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 As a comical side note I'm sure the BUF and BGM offices are thrilled to see another event rather similar to the colossal bust a few weeks back....they probably want the NAM to verify so their forecast is easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 storm vista snow algorithms 8-12": Southern Delaware westward through Maryland over DC (South of BWI) into WVA. 4-8" all of MD into Cape May/SNJ into Central PA...back over N-Central NJ, basically over my house..including NYC and LI...also all of Connecticut except a far sliver on the Northeast side. 2-4" Everywhere except for a small area directly over Philly back westward into an area of Central-Eastern PA...and eastward from there to Southern Monmouth, North-Central Burlington, and Ocean Counties in NJ. Cutoff in SNE runs NW to SE through MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 A world, a world of difference between the 06Z UKMET and NAM at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 06Z GFS trended rather significantly towards the NAM with the first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 06Z GFS trended rather significantly towards the NAM with the first event. Second low is handled similarly as well. Almost identical solutions between the gfs and nam 06z runs for both lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Second low is handled similarly as well. Almost identical solutions between the gfs and nam 06z runs for both lows. 6z GFS is about .5" QPF for NYC metro, all snow, from the first wave. The second wave passes well to the south, giving a moderate snowfall from Southern NJ to DC area. The NAM, GFS, and ECM are coming into significant consensus regarding the storm. Should be a fun event to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 6z GFS is very nice for the area for the first wave. It gives near-warning criteria snows to the I-78 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The NAM and GFS both give Northern New Jersey 2-10 inches of snow on Sunday night to Monday morning. The long range GFS ensemble mean also keeps 850 temps below 0 for the next 16 days, the entire time. The GFS ensemble mean appears to have done better with this impending event than any single model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like a solid warning criteria snowfall of 5-8 inches for NYC and all of LI between Sunday night and Monday evening. 6Z GFS and NAM suggest 1 inch per hour snow late Sunday night with excellent snow growth and omega values. Moderate to heavy snowall for 5-6 hours, with no rain mixing, maybe just some sleet at the end. We might get some light snow into late Monday night as the second piece moves off the coast, looks much better south for a 4-8 inch event in the Mid Atlantic. Tuesday struggles to get out of the teens for highs with significant snowcover. Wednesday and Thursday struggle to 28-30 for highs, but the sun will make it feel tolerable. Friday and into next weekend is morphing into a major snowstorm for the area, with cuttter idea going off the table more and more on the GFS ensemble mean and becoming another overunning event morphing and becoming a potent Miller B for NYC, LI and New England. Arctic high in Canada is so strong it looks to deliver the goods. February 25-27th stand the best chance for another warning event that could be prolonged and maybe very potent. I am thinking 10-15 inch event for the long range event next weekend. I would not be surprised if we get 10-20 inches of new snow area wide between 2/20-2/28 as the GFS is suggesting possibly. Looks like we are entering another strong to epic pattern again. I am almost surprised it is coming back this strong. So i think we see two warning events this upcoming week, one Sunday night through Monday evening and another Friday through a portion of next weekend. Let's lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like a solid warning criteria snowfall of 5-8 inches for NYC and all of LI between Sunday night and Monday evening. 6Z GFS and NAM suggest 1 inch per hour snow late Sunday night with excellent snow growth and omega values. Moderate to heavy snowall for 5-6 hours, with no rain mixing, maybe just some sleet at the end. We might get some light snow into late Monday night as the second piece moves off the coast, looks much better south for a 4-8 inch event in the Mid Atlantic. Tuesday struggles to get out of the teens for highs with significant snowcover. Wednesday and Thursday struggle to 28-30 for highs, but the sun will make it feel tolerable. Friday and into next weekend is morphing into a major snowstorm for the area, with cuttter idea going off the table more and more on the GFS ensemble mean and becoming another overunning event morphing and becoming a potent Miller B for NYC, LI and New England. Arctic high in Canada is so strong it looks to deliver the goods. February 25-27th stand the best chance for another warning event that could be prolonged and maybe very potent. I am thinking 10-15 inch event for the long range event next weekend. I would not be surprised if we get 10-20 inches of new snow area wide between 2/20-2/28 as the GFS is suggesting possibly. Looks like we are entering another strong to epic pattern again. I am almost surprised it is coming back this strong. So i think we see two warning events this upcoming week, one Sunday night through Monday evening and another Friday through a portion of next weekend. Let's lock it up. Based off the 06z runs. I's rather wait for the 12z runs before buying into any of this (maybe). SREF's went a little drier already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Back in 2008 we picked up a decent snow several days after we were in the 60's. These Nina patterns have some big swings. http://www.erh.noaa....rm02222008.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Back in 2008 we picked up a decent snow several days after we were in the 60's. These Nina patterns have some big swings. http://www.erh.noaa....rm02222008.html That storm was an overperformer. I was forecasted to get 2-4 inches of snow before changing to rain. At the end, I got 7 inches of snow with a little rain. The storm was modeled to phase and become 1 big wave. The storm never phased and it hit the area with 2 waves of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This situation is far from being set in stone. The first wave looks good now but would not be surprised to see the second one come bacK. Either way, we all look to see flakes again, and that is good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 12z NAM changes everyone over to sleet by 48 hrs on this run. Warm above 850mbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 12Z NAM looks to push the first round of precip further north. Should allow for 2nd round to come further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 By 51 hrs it changes everyone south of NYC to rain. Most of the precip has stopped by this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 12z NAM changes everyone over to sleet by 48 hrs on this run. Warm above 850mbs. Result of the slightly more northern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 12z NAM changes everyone over to sleet by 48 hrs on this run. Warm above 850mbs. For nyc south, yes, nyc north hangs on, and the precip is almost done after 48 here is KHPN (white plains) at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 By 51 hrs it changes everyone south of NYC to rain. 700 Layer is no longer saturated, it probably drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 With this setup, I believe the 12Z NAM is under-doing QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It kind of looks like an inch or two of slop with the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 And it is still keeping the 2nd system south of us. Well, this was nearly the worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That storm was an overperformer. I was forecasted to get 2-4 inches of snow before changing to rain. At the end, I got 7 inches of snow with a little rain. The storm was modeled to phase and become 1 big wave. The storm never phased and it hit the area with 2 waves of precip. We really needed that storm to at least crack double digit snowfall amounts for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the nam snowfall map is a kick in the rear for nyc-phl.....sne gets 4-8 and dc gets 8-12...we get nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 being this is the fourth nam solution in as many runs, no one should jump off a cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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