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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Here is my problem with this second wave: there is virtually no warm air advection out ahead of this wave and the area of low pressure is not tremendously strong to begin with so it will be threading the needle to be in the right place. Although the 00Z UKMET did give me pause.

By the way, I did use the blizzard word once it became clear the Boxer Day storm was going to affect us.

Your reasoning is perfectly sound...as was implied...I was just kidding around based on your more often than not "cup half empty" (rather than half full) tendencies...

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bastardi: "UKMET is wild with second storm, an in line with my thinking of a west east heavy snow band between I-70 an 80. Ice too" ...."Big model fight tonight on Monday nt-Tuesday storm. I like UKMET. GFS looks out of touch with too suppresses idea"

1 -70 being Ocean / Burlington County up through Bergen/ Essex /Morris County in NJ extending toward NYC/Long Island to the east ??? Good Luck.... of course he likes the model that gives the most people the heaviest snow......suppression idea is not that out of touch IMO....

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1 -70 being Ocean / Burlington County up through Bergen/ Essex /Morris County in NJ extending toward NYC/Long Island to the east ??? Good Luck.... of course he likes the model that gives the most people the heaviest snow......suppression idea is not that out of touch IMO....

dont be so negative, nao.

haha. i made a funny.

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dont be so negative, nao.

haha. i made a funny.

I am trying to use reverse psychology - usually not here at 2 - 3 am but that sound of the wind makes it diffficult to sleep - good thing tomorrow is saturday....any reports yet of trees down ??? - good chance with the wet soil after the snow melt....

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Given the NAM's bias of having SW flow events too far south I need to see other models start being south soon...the NMM and ARW appeared colder at 48 hours over the area than most models but you cannot really tell or extrapolate where it will track the system.

Assuming you're talking about the first system--yeah me too. I think our best shot with that event is a sloppy few inches--there's a mean mid level warm layer.

That being said..I am starting to get at least a bit encouraged regarding the second event. I think we're in a good spot. But we need the shortwave to be strong...the first event leaves a bit of a dicey situation for amplification behind it.

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The NAM is a wreck right now...20 degrees too cold here today...and has major changes through 30 hours over the Midwest. I really wouldn't trust it too much at the moment.

My half awake look a the 03Z SREFs appeared as if they were warmer and north than 21Z so I would expect that the 06Z NAM may come north...given the 06Z NAMs suppressed tendency of the last 2 years if it comes in north we could probably toss the 00Z run for now.

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03z ETA now giving us some light to moderate snow on the front end...ends up further north with first event...but precipitation shuts off before it warms up. Second event is about as flat as metfans girlfriend

damn dude haha it really is 3:30 am i guess :lmao:

Snow moving in at Hour 51 on the nam.

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