Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here is my problem with this second wave: there is virtually no warm air advection out ahead of this wave and the area of low pressure is not tremendously strong to begin with so it will be threading the needle to be in the right place. Although the 00Z UKMET did give me pause. By the way, I did use the blizzard word once it became clear the Boxer Day storm was going to affect us. Your reasoning is perfectly sound...as was implied...I was just kidding around based on your more often than not "cup half empty" (rather than half full) tendencies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 bastardi: "UKMET is wild with second storm, an in line with my thinking of a west east heavy snow band between I-70 an 80. Ice too" ...."Big model fight tonight on Monday nt-Tuesday storm. I like UKMET. GFS looks out of touch with too suppresses idea" 1 -70 being Ocean / Burlington County up through Bergen/ Essex /Morris County in NJ extending toward NYC/Long Island to the east ??? Good Luck.... of course he likes the model that gives the most people the heaviest snow......suppression idea is not that out of touch IMO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 1 -70 being Ocean / Burlington County up through Bergen/ Essex /Morris County in NJ extending toward NYC/Long Island to the east ??? Good Luck.... of course he likes the model that gives the most people the heaviest snow......suppression idea is not that out of touch IMO.... dont be so negative, nao. haha. i made a funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 dont be so negative, nao. haha. i made a funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 dont be so negative, nao. haha. i made a funny. I am trying to use reverse psychology - usually not here at 2 - 3 am but that sound of the wind makes it diffficult to sleep - good thing tomorrow is saturday....any reports yet of trees down ??? - good chance with the wet soil after the snow melt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Canadian p-type maps--not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 by the way, if anybody is looking for an interesting fact at 2:52am, the 18z nam mos today straight out of the shoot was 51 degrees. observed temperature at that time was 64 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 21Z old ETA is ridiculously suppressed with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 21Z old ETA is ridiculously suppressed with the first wave. Yeah, it's got a good hit with that event..and looks like a graze with the second but it's not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 By the way, here's the visual on the RSM for those who didn't get a look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here's a cool look at the 00z NAM...ewall has these 15 panel graphics up for the wxchallenge i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Given the NAM's bias of having SW flow events too far south I need to see other models start being south soon...the NMM and ARW appeared colder at 48 hours over the area than most models but you cannot really tell or extrapolate where it will track the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Given the NAM's bias of having SW flow events too far south I need to see other models start being south soon...the NMM and ARW appeared colder at 48 hours over the area than most models but you cannot really tell or extrapolate where it will track the system. Assuming you're talking about the first system--yeah me too. I think our best shot with that event is a sloppy few inches--there's a mean mid level warm layer. That being said..I am starting to get at least a bit encouraged regarding the second event. I think we're in a good spot. But we need the shortwave to be strong...the first event leaves a bit of a dicey situation for amplification behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The NAM is a wreck right now...20 degrees too cold here today...and has major changes through 30 hours over the Midwest. I really wouldn't trust it too much at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That being said, I can almost guarantee it will do something stupid on it's 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The NAM is a wreck right now...20 degrees too cold here today...and has major changes through 30 hours over the Midwest. I really wouldn't trust it too much at the moment. My half awake look a the 03Z SREFs appeared as if they were warmer and north than 21Z so I would expect that the 06Z NAM may come north...given the 06Z NAMs suppressed tendency of the last 2 years if it comes in north we could probably toss the 00Z run for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 03z ETA now giving us some light to moderate snow on the front end...ends up further north with first event...but precipitation shuts off before it warms up. Second event is about as flat as metfans girlfriend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 03z ETA now giving us some light to moderate snow on the front end...ends up further north with first event...but precipitation shuts off before it warms up. Second event is about as flat as metfans girlfriend damn dude haha it really is 3:30 am i guess Snow moving in at Hour 51 on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Despite whatever drugs the NAM might be on, it still finds a way to give us snow at 51-54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Storm vista maps...again 4-8" north if I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 700mb is cooler this run, too...looks like snow to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 8" in NW NJ through 57 hrs on vista maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Much less amplified with the second event over the midwest. Chances that it looks remotely like its 00z run are near zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 06Z NAM is a 2/8/94 repeat more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 72 hrs nice hit for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 RH and UVV's are trying to spread north, this may still get the good precipitation to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 75 hours, not quite. Very nice run for DC proper..even into Delaware and SNJ. 4-8" on the snow algorithm, there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think right now the first event, if cooler, has a good chance of giving us something productive unlike the 2nd event right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Good thing my cache didn't clear on PSU ewall, I would have missed last nights 06z NAM which predicted a high of 49 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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