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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Our problem does not lie as much with the PV as it does with the shortwave. At h5, there is a partial phase between the shortwaves of Part I and Part II. Compare this to earlier runs of the GFS where Part II was further north and you'll see two completely distinct shortwaves. Judging how this winter has gone so far, I'd go with the more consolidated partial phase, but we'll see.

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I can't get over how awesome that frame is. It's a long ways out, but it's snowing with temperatures in the lower teens, northerly winds, and 850 temperatures colder than 10c everywhere.

I am hoping so badly that this verifies just to see the shock on people's faces that believe once it gets warm that's the end of winter. I had someone just today tell me that. "But it's getting warmer out..."

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0z GEFS are south and colder with the 1st wave and much further north with the 2nd wave.

Canadian is north with the first event and south with the second one, being a nice hit for the southern 2/3 of NJ.

Light hit for NYC with the 2nd wave on the GGEM. It wouldn't take much for the heavier precip to shift into the NYC area. The second wave on the Nam,Ukie and GGEM are well north of the GFS .

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Hard to see the second wave being all that significant for our area.

Lol, no offense, but you would downplay snow chances at Paradise Ranger Station...

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Here is my problem with this second wave: there is virtually no warm air advection out ahead of this wave and the area of low pressure is not tremendously strong to begin with so it will be threading the needle to be in the right place. Although the 00Z UKMET did give me pause.

By the way, I did use the blizzard word once it became clear the Boxer Day storm was going to affect us.

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