Duality Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not me. I am ready for the snow. 4 posts left.. save them for Jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS north with 1st wave. Mostly wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS north with 1st wave. Mostly wet. GFS crushes the 2nd wave well to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 And it has no 2nd wave for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS remains the same....too warm then suppressed. NAM is SECSY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 No 2nd storm on Gfs. Squashed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wait, was the gfs supressed? lol extremely inconsistent the last 8 runs. North/South, yada yada.. Gonna come down to the last minute again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The NAM was pretty magnificent, since we cashed in both... the gfs kinda just shat on that by a warm 1st event, and suppressed 2nd event. Total opposites at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Our problem does not lie as much with the PV as it does with the shortwave. At h5, there is a partial phase between the shortwaves of Part I and Part II. Compare this to earlier runs of the GFS where Part II was further north and you'll see two completely distinct shortwaves. Judging how this winter has gone so far, I'd go with the more consolidated partial phase, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What this says to me is that a little shift of the pattern, storm/s tracks and air masses make a very big difference. The Canadian and ECMWF models are also suggesting this too. Making this forecast for DSNY just keep getting more problematic by the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I can't get over how awesome that frame is. It's a long ways out, but it's snowing with temperatures in the lower teens, northerly winds, and 850 temperatures colder than 10c everywhere. I am hoping so badly that this verifies just to see the shock on people's faces that believe once it gets warm that's the end of winter. I had someone just today tell me that. "But it's getting warmer out..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This run of the GFS also gives NYC like a foot of snow next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The NAM has nailed two overrunning events in the past month...the 1st part of the two wave setup in the NE a few weeks ago and the event in KS and OK the other week...we'd better hope its right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This is true. It really did nail them very well. The NAM has nailed two overrunning events in the past month...the 1st part of the two wave setup in the NE a few weeks ago and the event in KS and OK the other week...we'd better hope its right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This is true. It really did nail them very well. The only problem is it did it being more north than the other models...the NAM sometimes has issues being too south on SW flow events so that may be the issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Canadian is north with the first event and south with the second one, being a nice hit for the southern 2/3 of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 0z GEFS are south and colder with the 1st wave and much further north with the 2nd wave. Canadian is north with the first event and south with the second one, being a nice hit for the southern 2/3 of NJ. Light hit for NYC with the 2nd wave on the GGEM. It wouldn't take much for the heavier precip to shift into the NYC area. The second wave on the Nam,Ukie and GGEM are well north of the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 bastardi: "UKMET is wild with second storm, an in line with my thinking of a west east heavy snow band between I-70 an 80. Ice too" ...."Big model fight tonight on Monday nt-Tuesday storm. I like UKMET. GFS looks out of touch with too suppresses idea" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ggem mon-tue storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Euro coming in much colder so far with the first event. Snowing at hr 54. 850 0c line is still just north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 60 hour Euro is very similar to the NAM in regards to QPF, surface low, and H85 0c line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Surface low goes SE of Montauk on the Euro..much further south than 12z. Can't see warm layers that may potentially lie between 750-800mb..but it looks like mostly snow north of I-78 and West of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 72 hrs surface low is in Western KY. 0c line is just North of DCA. Precipitation just getting into DCA at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 78 hours precipitation up to PHL (light). Moderate to heavy snow over OH/W PA. Light snow in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 84 hours less amplified than the NAM...light to moderate snow in DC and up to just South of PHL...including S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hard to see the second wave being all that significant for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hard to see the second wave being all that significant for our area. It has more potential than the 1st wave. Very cold air in place, if we can get the precip far enough north like the NAM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hard to see the second wave being all that significant for our area. Lol, no offense, but you would downplay snow chances at Paradise Ranger Station... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Lol, no offense, but you would downplay snow chances at Paradise Ranger Station... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here is my problem with this second wave: there is virtually no warm air advection out ahead of this wave and the area of low pressure is not tremendously strong to begin with so it will be threading the needle to be in the right place. Although the 00Z UKMET did give me pause. By the way, I did use the blizzard word once it became clear the Boxer Day storm was going to affect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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