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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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If there is going to be a two wave event that works out, it would be this winter.

Right now the steadiest models seems to be the gefs and they get the local area pretty good with the second wave and have been trending colder with the first.

NAM looks very good with the second wave bringing snow into NYC at 81 through 84 hours with the best yet to come!!!

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If there is going to be a two wave event that works out, it would be this winter.

Right now the steadiest models seems to be the gefs and they get the local area pretty good with the second wave and have been trending colder with the first.

NAM looks very good with the second wave bringing snow into NYC at 81 through 84 hours with the best yet to come!!!

Nice post.....most ensemble guidance makes the clear distinction between the 2 waves. On to the global zero zee runs....

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storm vista snow total algorithm has 8" for NJ north of PHL to just west of NYC at 84 hrs

NYC might be in a pretty good position for wave #2. I think you probably want to be just a shade too far N at this point in the game on a SWFE.

The first wave you have to look at 750mb for the warm layer. At 60h, its ripping pellets because of big surge of warm air above 800mb.

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Nice post.....most ensemble guidance makes the clear distinction between the 2 waves. On to the global zero zee runs....

Even Upton said that the second waive is too dry and supressed on the op globals and favored the cmc ensemble and gefs blend.

The only problem with the second wave is that its not coming up the coast, its sliding w to se, so it needs an expansive precip shield and needs to slide right under PA as it moves to the SE

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Even Upton said that the second waive is too dry and supressed on the op globals and favored the cmc ensemble and gefs blend.

The only problem with the second wave is that its not coming up the coast, its sliding w to se, so it needs an expansive precip shield and needs to slide right under PA as it moves to the SE

It looks like there is sufficient separation of shortwaves on the NAM, for the second one to amplify just in time for a nice event for the area....complicated set up....

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speaking of the 1st event, the precip ends just after 60 hours and to that point nyc north is snow, here is the nyc sounding at 57 which is all snow and then it goes to pingers at 60 hours but its ending

110219031213.gif

obviously places to the north of NYC stay snow longer

We've got guidance going in the right direction so far tonight after this horrible pattern.....all we can ask

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speaking of the 1st event, the precip ends just after 60 hours and to that point nyc north is snow, here is the nyc sounding at 57 which is all snow and then it goes to pingers at 60 hours but its ending

110219031213.gif

obviously places to the north of NYC stay snow longer

Looks like motsly snow up this way in orange county with 0.74 of QPF for round 1.

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt

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one of these two waves is going to leave someone in the area with 8+. Money is on orange county right now but that second wave could be the black sheep from an area from earthlight right up to the ct coast. Sadly, that means more than a few of us are gonna outside looking in, but thats cool, its been a great winter.

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