earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS through 54 hours is colder and further south with the first event over the Central US..snow into Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Now snow into NYC at 57 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ugh, that almost looks like a 2/6/2010 type cut off (referring to the nam map you posted.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Portions of Central Wisconsin are going to get killed with overrunning snows in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Still snow through 63 hours but very borderline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Inland burbs still holding on to snow through 66 hours--city looks to have flipped as have areas south of Staten Island. NW NJ/ SE NY/CT still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Surface low cutting underneath LI at 69 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Second "event" is pretty much a turd here on this run..looks like some snow for DC and whereabouts at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Snow for SNJ at 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Of more interest in the interaction between the PV and the sw getting sheered out. Does the PV phase in and re-energize the trough? Is it too late? The 12z gefs were going nuts with the phase while the OP was timid. 18Z op still seems timid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Now snow into NYC at 57 hrs There is really no high to the north or northeast to create excellent overrunning conditions, however; the mid-level warm advection is rather impressive and could allow for a decent period of snow. Ugh, that almost looks like a 2/6/2010 type cut off (referring to the nam map you posted.) I don't envision there being anywhere close to that sharp of a gradient and if there is its probably going to setup quite a bit further south than it did in that event...I think either we're comfortably in the snow shield for this event or we miss it by a wide margin to the south...I don't see the gradient setting up close to the area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Of more interest in the interaction between the PV and the sw getting sheered out. Does the PV phase in and re-energize the trough? Is it too late? The 12z gefs were going nuts with the phase while the OP was timid. 18Z op still seems timid. The PV as depicted by the OP gfs is too far east and too late to make anything happen for us. That may change in later runs, but you would need a strong 50/50 or NAO block to displace the vortex even further west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The PV as depicted by the OP gfs is too far east and too late to make anything happen for us. That may change in later runs, but you would need a strong 50/50 or NAO block to displace the vortex even further west..... or just better timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just from my recollection it always seems like the "second event" never pans out. It's either all or nothing with the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just from my recollection it always seems like the "second event" never pans out. It's either all or nothing with the first. NAM has a pretty good second event for NJ southward, but at this range, nothing should be trusted yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Just from my recollection it always seems like the "second event" never pans out. It's either all or nothing with the first. Odds are that the only way the 2nd event works out is if the 1st one is north and mainly liquid for NYC...if the first event goes south I'd anticipate it would result in the next system being more suppressed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Odds are that the only way the 2nd event works out is if the 1st one is north and mainly liquid for NYC...if the first event goes south I'd anticipate it would result in the next system being more suppressed as well. Which one will contain the most moisture? Number 2? I have a feeling out of all the big cities, we're in the screw zone between both events. DC,BWI,PHL,PVD,BOS might all get more snow from the combo of the two systems than NYC does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Which one will contain the most moisture? Number 2? I have a feeling out of all the big cities, we're in the screw zone between both events. DC,BWI,PHL,PVD,BOS might all get more snow from the combo of the two systems than NYC does. The 1st event could be more potent...the models may not show it being all that major now but it reeks of the sort of system that overproduces...I'd anticipate there will be double digit snow totals in areas that stay all snow which right now would be central NY if you believe the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I think it's better if 1st event goes well north of us and we get hit with the juicier, 2nd event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 upton A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE A WIDESPREAD OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS RANGING FROM LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...TO ONLY FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS BEING GRAZED WITH SNOW. ALL MODELS AGREE THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW TRACK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/S CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND THE EVOLUTION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT GOOD WITH FORECASTING PLACEMENT/STRENGTHS OF CUTOFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT...SO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THAT THIS SECOND EVENT WILL BE PRIMARILY AN ALL SNOW EVENT - COULD SEE AN INITIAL MIX AT THE START. FOR NOW...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS HIGHEST S AND LOWEST N...REFLECTING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS. GEFS MEAN AND CMC HAVE PRECIPITATION FURTHER N THAN GFS/ECMWF...COUPLED WITH WAFFLING IN GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...FELT PRUDENT TO GO WITH MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. STRONG...GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 21z SREF's actually look like a decent hit with both events. First event is 0.40-0.50" liquid through 69 hours and all snow through at point. H85 0c line is South of Sandy hook and 2m temps are cold. At 81 hours it has some more light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 21z RSM a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 21z RSM a big hit no kidding....1.25"+ qpf all snow for NJ/NYC from both events LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 For some reason I don't think we'll get snow, I just have a feeling that it'll be rain/sleet, let's see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 no kidding....1.25"+ qpf all snow for NJ/NYC from both events LOL ~25 inches of snow that will totally verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 21z RSM a big hit Congealing into one big event? It's been bandied about by some for a few days.....would enjoy your thoughts on this (if you've recovered from your T-Storm)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Congealing into one big event? It's been bandied about by some for a few days.....would enjoy your thoughts on this (if you've recovered from your T-Storm)... If we do see this as 2 events, dont we want the first event to be further north to allow the colder air to come in? Or am I misinterpreting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 57 hour nam...snow into NJ/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 through that hour... 2-4" for NJ north of Staten Islands latitude..including NYC. Not LI (yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If we do see this as 2 events, dont we want the first event to be further north to allow the colder air to come in? Or am I misinterpreting? I'm not qualified to answer this from a Met standpoint, but you can clearly see the first event is progged colder on recent guidance now.....I think we take what we can get from the tail end of this pattern and see what happens. jconsor and snowgoose addressed your question earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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