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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Now snow into NYC at 57 hrs

There is really no high to the north or northeast to create excellent overrunning conditions, however; the mid-level warm advection is rather impressive and could allow for a decent period of snow.

Ugh, that almost looks like a 2/6/2010 type cut off (referring to the nam map you posted.)

I don't envision there being anywhere close to that sharp of a gradient and if there is its probably going to setup quite a bit further south than it did in that event...I think either we're comfortably in the snow shield for this event or we miss it by a wide margin to the south...I don't see the gradient setting up close to the area right now.

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Of more interest in the interaction between the PV and the sw getting sheered out. Does the PV phase in and re-energize the trough? Is it too late?

The 12z gefs were going nuts with the phase while the OP was timid. 18Z op still seems timid.

The PV as depicted by the OP gfs is too far east and too late to make anything happen for us. That may change in later runs, but you would need a strong 50/50 or NAO block to displace the vortex even further west.....

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Just from my recollection it always seems like the "second event" never pans out. It's either all or nothing with the first.

Odds are that the only way the 2nd event works out is if the 1st one is north and mainly liquid for NYC...if the first event goes south I'd anticipate it would result in the next system being more suppressed as well.

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Odds are that the only way the 2nd event works out is if the 1st one is north and mainly liquid for NYC...if the first event goes south I'd anticipate it would result in the next system being more suppressed as well.

Which one will contain the most moisture? Number 2? I have a feeling out of all the big cities, we're in the screw zone between both events. DC,BWI,PHL,PVD,BOS might all get more snow from the combo of the two systems than NYC does.

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Which one will contain the most moisture? Number 2? I have a feeling out of all the big cities, we're in the screw zone between both events. DC,BWI,PHL,PVD,BOS might all get more snow from the combo of the two systems than NYC does.

The 1st event could be more potent...the models may not show it being all that major now but it reeks of the sort of system that overproduces...I'd anticipate there will be double digit snow totals in areas that stay all snow which right now would be central NY if you believe the models.

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upton

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SECOND BATCH OF

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL TRACK TO OUR

SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE A WIDESPREAD OF

POSSIBLE IMPACTS RANGING FROM LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE

AREA...TO ONLY FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS BEING GRAZED WITH SNOW. ALL

MODELS AGREE THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW TRACK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CUTOFF LOW

FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/S CANADIAN MARITIMES

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND THE EVOLUTION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING

IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT GOOD WITH FORECASTING

PLACEMENT/STRENGTHS OF CUTOFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT...SO A LOW

CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THAT THIS SECOND EVENT WILL BE

PRIMARILY AN ALL SNOW EVENT - COULD SEE AN INITIAL MIX AT THE

START. FOR NOW...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS HIGHEST S AND LOWEST

N...REFLECTING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS. GEFS MEAN AND CMC

HAVE PRECIPITATION FURTHER N THAN GFS/ECMWF...COUPLED WITH

WAFFLING IN GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...FELT PRUDENT TO GO WITH MORE

EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. STRONG...GUSTY NW

WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.

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Congealing into one big event? It's been bandied about by some for a few days.....would enjoy your thoughts on this (if you've recovered from your T-Storm)...

laugh.gif

If we do see this as 2 events, dont we want the first event to be further north to allow the colder air to come in? Or am I misinterpreting?

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laugh.gif

If we do see this as 2 events, dont we want the first event to be further north to allow the colder air to come in? Or am I misinterpreting?

I'm not qualified to answer this from a Met standpoint, but you can clearly see the first event is progged colder on recent guidance now.....I think we take what we can get from the tail end of this pattern and see what happens.

jconsor and snowgoose addressed your question earlier....

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