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2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Looks like chances are increasing for at least wintry precip in the 1/20-1/22 timeframe.

12z EURO has the low well south and the precip supressed.

12z GEM & 18z GFS has a moderate snowstorm.

Hopefully we can get 1 last hoorah.

I wish we could go back to January and relive that week lol... :thumbsup:

All of a sudden a threat on 2/22 is the last hoorah of winter?

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Hope I'm wrong, but I believe the pattern in place supports the snow event being further north (NY/New England) more in line with what the 12z GFS indicated. Yes, even with a strong western trough we can get suppression of the SE-ridge, but rarely do I recall accumulating snow as far south as Philly in this type of regime. If you're NW of NYC or even NE, in CT, I'd say your chances are better.

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This winter can't stop mimicking the 1947-48 winter...After all the snow pack melted this time in 1948 winter returned on 2/22 with 5.7" of snow...It hasn't happened yet but just being on the models is interesting...

Yeah Unc your comparison of snow depth/temps was almost scary it was so similar. Same cold day on Tuesday, followed by the late week surge of warmth, then colder over the weekend. Would be something if NYC loses their snow Friday only to gain it back Monday. Kind of a shame if that happens, so close to making the 47-48 snow cover streak.

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Yeah Unc your comparison of snow depth/temps was almost scary it was so similar. Same cold day on Tuesday, followed by the late week surge of warmth, then colder over the weekend. Would be something if NYC loses their snow Friday only to gain it back Monday. Kind of a shame if that happens, so close to making the 47-48 snow cover streak.

47-48 had a three day start with the snow they got on 12/23...

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Hope I'm wrong, but I believe the pattern in place supports the snow event being further north (NY/New England) more in line with what the 12z GFS indicated. Yes, even with a strong western trough we can get suppression of the SE-ridge, but rarely do I recall accumulating snow as far south as Philly in this type of regime. If you're NW of NYC or even NE, in CT, I'd say your chances are better.

It really depends on how strong the wave ejecting from the western trough is; this will determine how much amplification we see. I do like the timing of the wave moving east and the high pressure building into eastern Canada, very well sequenced. Also some very cold air to the north with H85 temperatures of -30C in Quebec/Ontario.

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