Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

2/20 -2/22 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 854
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looks like chances are increasing for at least wintry precip in the 1/20-1/22 timeframe.

12z EURO has the low well south and the precip supressed.

12z GEM & 18z GFS has a moderate snowstorm.

Hopefully we can get 1 last hoorah.

I wish we could go back to January and relive that week lol... :thumbsup:

All of a sudden a threat on 2/22 is the last hoorah of winter?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hope I'm wrong, but I believe the pattern in place supports the snow event being further north (NY/New England) more in line with what the 12z GFS indicated. Yes, even with a strong western trough we can get suppression of the SE-ridge, but rarely do I recall accumulating snow as far south as Philly in this type of regime. If you're NW of NYC or even NE, in CT, I'd say your chances are better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This winter can't stop mimicking the 1947-48 winter...After all the snow pack melted this time in 1948 winter returned on 2/22 with 5.7" of snow...It hasn't happened yet but just being on the models is interesting...

Yeah Unc your comparison of snow depth/temps was almost scary it was so similar. Same cold day on Tuesday, followed by the late week surge of warmth, then colder over the weekend. Would be something if NYC loses their snow Friday only to gain it back Monday. Kind of a shame if that happens, so close to making the 47-48 snow cover streak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah Unc your comparison of snow depth/temps was almost scary it was so similar. Same cold day on Tuesday, followed by the late week surge of warmth, then colder over the weekend. Would be something if NYC loses their snow Friday only to gain it back Monday. Kind of a shame if that happens, so close to making the 47-48 snow cover streak.

47-48 had a three day start with the snow they got on 12/23...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hope I'm wrong, but I believe the pattern in place supports the snow event being further north (NY/New England) more in line with what the 12z GFS indicated. Yes, even with a strong western trough we can get suppression of the SE-ridge, but rarely do I recall accumulating snow as far south as Philly in this type of regime. If you're NW of NYC or even NE, in CT, I'd say your chances are better.

It really depends on how strong the wave ejecting from the western trough is; this will determine how much amplification we see. I do like the timing of the wave moving east and the high pressure building into eastern Canada, very well sequenced. Also some very cold air to the north with H85 temperatures of -30C in Quebec/Ontario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...