Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Looks like chances are increasing for at least wintry precip in the 2/20-2/22 timeframe. 12z EURO has the low well south and the precip supressed. 12z GEM & 18z GFS has a moderate snowstorm. Hopefully we can get 1 last hoorah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Looks like chances are increasing for at least wintry precip in the 1/20-1/22 timeframe. 12z EURO has the low well south and the precip supressed. 12z GEM & 18z GFS has a moderate snowstorm. Hopefully we can get 1 last hoorah. I wish we could go back to January and relive that week lol... All of a sudden a threat on 2/22 is the last hoorah of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Wow, the 18z GFS really keeps things s/e thanks to the looming PV over canada. Best run in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 18z also has .15"ish of qpf hours 96-108. Plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 what the heck: http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 JMA is one initialization error away from a heck of a snow storm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Presidents Day 2 1/2 ---- 6 - 10 or 12 inches from Monmouth County North - closer to a few in Monmouth and every mile north of there more and more up to 10 - 12 in interior North Jersey .... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnow132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 what the heck: http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Not that great. .50"ish. 18z GFS had more, .75"-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 lol, i just realized this would be a storm on presidents day, obviously doesnt look anything close to the two great storms of the past same date but its a nice time of the year to have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Not that great. .50"ish. 18z GFS had more, .75"-1" lol its not AMAZING, jaw dropping..but its snow and its not a lakes cutter. A 3-6" storm would be insane after fridays weather and in this "terrible" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 lol its not AMAZING, jaw dropping..but its snow and its not a lakes cutter. A 3-6" storm would be insane after fridays weather and in this "terrible" pattern. Agree 100%. 18z GFS is a 6"-8" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Fwiw, JB is suggesting 2 to 4" in NYC and Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Fwiw, JB is suggesting 2 to 4" in NYC and Phil. Awesome, I love exact amount forecasts at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Hope I'm wrong, but I believe the pattern in place supports the snow event being further north (NY/New England) more in line with what the 12z GFS indicated. Yes, even with a strong western trough we can get suppression of the SE-ridge, but rarely do I recall accumulating snow as far south as Philly in this type of regime. If you're NW of NYC or even NE, in CT, I'd say your chances are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Fwiw, JB is suggesting 2 to 4" in NYC and Phil. His discussion on this setup was informative-explained why it's not going north and if Boston misses the snow it's not b/c it rained....trashed the GFS as usual! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 This winter can't stop mimicking the 1947-48 winter...After all the snow pack melted this time in 1948 winter returned on 2/22 with 5.7" of snow...It hasn't happened yet but just being on the models is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 This winter can't stop mimicking the 1947-48 winter...After all the snow pack melted this time in 1948 winter returned on 2/22 with 5.7" of snow...It hasn't happened yet but just being on the models is interesting... Yeah Unc your comparison of snow depth/temps was almost scary it was so similar. Same cold day on Tuesday, followed by the late week surge of warmth, then colder over the weekend. Would be something if NYC loses their snow Friday only to gain it back Monday. Kind of a shame if that happens, so close to making the 47-48 snow cover streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yeah Unc your comparison of snow depth/temps was almost scary it was so similar. Same cold day on Tuesday, followed by the late week surge of warmth, then colder over the weekend. Would be something if NYC loses their snow Friday only to gain it back Monday. Kind of a shame if that happens, so close to making the 47-48 snow cover streak. 47-48 had a three day start with the snow they got on 12/23... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Hope I'm wrong, but I believe the pattern in place supports the snow event being further north (NY/New England) more in line with what the 12z GFS indicated. Yes, even with a strong western trough we can get suppression of the SE-ridge, but rarely do I recall accumulating snow as far south as Philly in this type of regime. If you're NW of NYC or even NE, in CT, I'd say your chances are better. It really depends on how strong the wave ejecting from the western trough is; this will determine how much amplification we see. I do like the timing of the wave moving east and the high pressure building into eastern Canada, very well sequenced. Also some very cold air to the north with H85 temperatures of -30C in Quebec/Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 good to see confluence over the NE, but how bad will it shear it? ... ridge out W is puke.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 looks like we are below freezing saturday, yet nws forecasts call for mid 40s...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Any word on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Any word on gfs comin in now. looks like 12z thru hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Any word on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 wow...big changes at 114hr!!! stronger confluence over the NE and its much sloooower ejecting the wave in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Confluence shifted much further south on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 todays 12z tonites 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 so the confluence shoves it wide right. but the energy is much slower coming out and it basically moves from W to E across the middle of the country. congrats OH river valley and into DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The low exits off of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The low exits off of Hatteras. if the confluence is a tad weaker than wat this run depicts, we are in the game for good overunning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.