earthlight Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Surface low is over Western MO at 120 hours...north of 00z so far. Still plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 We also get some light snow at 114 hours in response to a clipper system that comes out of the northern stream with the polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 at 132 hour it looks to be getting completely sheared out into the flow across the east which is zonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yup, through 144 hours there is nothing from the event on the 22nd. Precipitation doesn't get north of DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The GFS is an outlier at this point. The 12z Nogaps and Euro showed similiar solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Oppps just saw this thread, made my post in the 0z thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The GFS is an outlier at this point. The 12z Nogaps and Euro showed similiar solutions. Yeah the 12z GFS still has the low going thru PA into SNY and out off New England. I suspect we're in a good spot for a minor event after what coould be a 65 - 70 degree readings on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Is there still that pesky cut-off on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yup, through 144 hours there is nothing from the event on the 22nd. Precipitation doesn't get north of DCA. What happens after the 22nd? Anything promising? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 What happens after the 22nd? Anything promising? Rossi not particularly... a warm front on the 25th and a cold front on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 if we miss the 22nd threat, this will be one heck of a stretch of boring weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Some love from the 12z CMC..GFS is its own camp at the moment. There is no way im throwing it out tho, still 144 hrs out. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 GFS ensembles look very interesting around hr 216.....I know it's way out there but it doesn't look like we have much else to look forward too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Pattern's garbage for our area, and I'm certainly not expecting any significant snow through the end of February, possible into the beginning of March for NYC/coast. North and west could be a different story, but with a pretty strongly negative PNA, positve AO, near neutral NAO, we're not going to get much pressing of polar air south of New England. SE ridge looks too resistant/strong -- we're in a typical strong nina regime now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 It is. but not uncommon. Can't really complain after the stretch we had. I'll take an early spring any day if it means we get 2 12"+ storms (and in some cases 3) in just over 30 days time. if we miss the 22nd threat, this will be one heck of a stretch of boring weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Strongly disagree. If the NYC area doesn't get snow in the next week or so, it's going to be because the push of polar air and associated confluence is too strong. Pattern's garbage for our area, and I'm certainly not expecting any significant snow through the end of February, possible into the beginning of March for NYC/coast. North and west could be a different story, but with a pretty strongly negative PNA, positve AO, near neutral NAO, we're not going to get much pressing of polar air south of New England. SE ridge looks too resistant/strong -- we're in a typical strong nina regime now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Pattern's garbage for our area, and I'm certainly not expecting any significant snow through the end of February, possible into the beginning of March for NYC/coast. North and west could be a different story, but with a pretty strongly negative PNA, positve AO, near neutral NAO, we're not going to get much pressing of polar air south of New England. SE ridge looks too resistant/strong -- we're in a typical strong nina regime now. .It's going to be into March before we get a pattern shift. But if NYC and 'Burbs want to match '95-'96, they better get at least a couple of mini-events (2-4") to put them on pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Strongly disagree. If the NYC area doesn't get snow in the next week or so, it's going to be because the push of polar air and associated confluence is too strong. Yea if anything the strong block and polar vortex keeps temperatures relatively cold and dry Sun-Wed. The pattern might remain tranquil with a progressive zonal flow under a large area of confluence. The block prevents the SE ridge from really flexing its muscle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Strongly disagree. If the NYC area doesn't get snow in the next week or so, it's going to be because the push of polar air and associated confluence is too strong. Disagree, I tend to favor the GFS solution given the pattern in place. Strong Western troughing supports the idea of a more robust SE-ridge and thus a further north baroclinic zone/gradient for the sfc low. IMO the Euro is too far south w/ the vortex and associated confluence over the Northeast early next week, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Title of thread....We're not quite at 12/16/11....Just a FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 We need the strong confluence to look in cold enough air for snow, however, the stronger it is the more sheered out the storm will end up because we have the trough digging on the west coast pumping the SE ridge...squeeze play...This setup is pretty much a lose/lose situation, but I suppose there is a needle threading outcome that would be at best say a 2-4" event? the euro at least showed an outcopme like that in one of the runs the past couple days, and it's probably the best case scenario. It has trended more and more sheered out since then though. I wouldnt be betting my chips on snow in the area, but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 18z gfs says we will get another snowstorm in 5 days. Low travels south of us and we stay mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 LOL at the 18z gfs, i guess when the weenies hacked it at 12z and made it 2 hours late they always made the code show a snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'd guess its the first correction south towards the Euro solutions. That is really nice blocking though. But could the western U.S. get any worse lol?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'd guess its the first correction south towards the Euro solutions. That is really nice blocking though. But could the western U.S. get any worse lol?? seriously, but block in canada will do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'd guess its the first correction south towards the Euro solutions. That is really nice blocking though. But could the western U.S. get any worse lol?? Yeah the PAC is looking bad with the strong -PNA, but we can have decent overrunning events in this type of setup. All depends on how the PV and atlantic shape up, and how far south our vort gets pushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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