Congress cutting NWS budget?

[famartin]

Maybe bare bones staffing for the way duties are assigned at present. However rumors have been circulating for years (ever since GFE came into play) about HPC taking over the extended forecast. They already produce grids for the extended and ship these out to all offices once a day.

They will have to go a long way before HPC is doing the Western extended... I think few, if any, in Western Region even look at the HPC grids, let alone use them.

[MGorse]

They will have to go a long way before HPC is doing the Western extended... I think few, if any, in Western Region even look at the HPC grids, let alone use them.

If the HPC grids are that bad in the West, has any of the offices there provided feedback to HPC? How much detail are you really putting in that far out especially days 5-7?

[stormguy80]

I’m not trying to anger people with these posts you know. As I see it though, the realities of the field have not made it into the mainstream and are not known by the younger people (high school / middle school student age people) thinking about majoring in meteorology and their parents. They’re only going to choose to believe the positive unless someone makes the negatives really clear and has good evidence to back up their position as I do. People need to approach meteorology with the same awareness of these negatives as they do other careers with these kinds of drawbacks in terms of salary, opportunities like being a professional musician. I just don’t see that happening though. Anyway, you’re right – point has been made and I’ll stop.

OMG we heard you the first 10 times you've posted this in various threads. We get it.

[famartin]

If the HPC grids are that bad in the West, has any of the offices there provided feedback to HPC? How much detail are you really putting in that far out especially days 5-7?

Well you have to realize that detail isn't just a matter of storm placement and timing out here. Its a matter of terrain. In fact, terrain is an overriding factor. My own CWA has nearly 10,000 feet of vertical elevation change. Some CWA's have even more. Plus, Nevada is the most mountainous state in the nation.

[LocoAko]

I’m not trying to anger people with these posts you know. As I see it though, the realities of the field have not made it into the mainstream and are not known by the younger people (high school / middle school student age people) thinking about majoring in meteorology and their parents. They’re only going to choose to believe the positive unless someone makes the negatives really clear and has good evidence to back up their position as I do. People need to approach meteorology with the same awareness of these negatives as they do other careers with these kinds of drawbacks in terms of salary, opportunities like being a professional musician. I just don’t see that happening though. Anyway, you’re right – point has been made and I’ll stop.

I'm sorry if I came across as rude, it is just frustrating to hear and I feel like every time I read a post from you it is always and only on this subject, lol. You obviously have more experience in the job market in this field than I do, since I'm still in school. I just try to remain optimistic. I still think there are plenty of opportunities out there for atmospheric scientists and it isn't as dismal as you paint it to be, but maybe that is just a rationalization I have. You just have to really stand out by doing research, interning, volunteering, etc. Either way, a degree in meteorology is a useful degree to have even if you don't seek employment in the field, so while realism is needed, I don't think shooing people away from the degree because it'd be "useless" or something is really right either (which isn't necessarily what you were doing, fwiw).

[stormguy80]

Yes; these are good points that hopefully get argued. In fact you can make these kinds of arguments for most regions of the country: The west has the incredibly complex terrain, the central, south and SE has severe weather while the northeast has the dense population the make it very sensitive to aviation issues among other things. I just hope others will see it this way. The worry is that they won't.

Well you have to realize that detail isn't just a matter of storm placement and timing out here. Its a matter of terrain. In fact, terrain is an overriding factor. My own CWA has nearly 10,000 feet of vertical elevation change. Some CWA's have even more. Plus, Nevada is the most mountainous state in the nation.

[MGorse]

Well you have to realize that detail isn't just a matter of storm placement and timing out here. Its a matter of terrain. In fact, terrain is an overriding factor. My own CWA has nearly 10,000 feet of vertical elevation change. Some CWA's have even more. Plus, Nevada is the most mountainous state in the nation.

You have terrain out there?

J/K.

[AtticaFanatica]

Anyway, you’re right – point has been made and I’ll stop.

Thank goodness. Finally.

[famartin]

Here's a couple typical grids for us

[baroclinic_instability]

Totally agree with your points. For these reasons, I think anyone wanting to major in meteorology, especially those hoping to work for the NWS, should think about majoring in something else instead. Our skills are needed elsewhere. That's what the market is essentially telling us with the low salaries in the private sector.

Our skills are needed elsewhere? This post makes no sense. There are far more duties for a meteorologist than to sit there and forecast.

OMG we heard you the first 10 times you've posted this in various threads. We get it.

Yes he never stops.

[baroclinic_instability]

Maybe bare bones staffing for the way duties are assigned at present. However rumors have been circulating for years (ever since GFE came into play) about HPC taking over the extended forecast. They already produce grids for the extended and ship these out to all offices once a day. How long until they issue these grids in-house? All grids would be collaborated with no CWA boundaries evident. Take away long term grids from each office and you can easily cut one position from each office. 122 forecasters down... If this works well, why not produce two sets of extended grids from HPC? Possibly another body lost as that gets absorbed into HPC? Another 122 forecasters gone.

With new technology emerging all the time and the model guidance improving in the short term (for the most part - not always but probably enough) who's to say plug and chug of model guidance for the near term would not be on the table? High res near term models may be good enough for most purposes. Most members of Congress likely do not understand the incredible variability of meteorological details and how a 1-2 hour difference in timing of convection, fog, wind shifts, etc. may impact search and rescue operations, aviation traffic, flight planning, etc. All they want to see are numbers, as that is right in front of them. If the numbers show that models are just as good as humans, why pay the salaries of all these forecasters when no real value is being added?

Not to say that this is where the NWS/NOAA is going. However I think it is irresponsible to assume this would not be the case and things will remain as is over the coming years. It is the job of the Union to get the word out to the public and local media, which in turn gets back to members of Congress. I have a sneaking suspicion that the NWS of today is not what we will see in 5-10 years time if budget woes continue. I hope I'm wrong...

I think this is why decision support services will eventually become much bigger in the coming years. Yes guidance to some degree has become much better--enough so where the forecaster can give more time to doing actual "impact based" forecasting. The new warnings/advisories they are rolling out at some locations are a great example of that--and it is another way significant economic benefit as well as life saving services can be added. Forecasters aren't going away anytime soon--the job is just evolving. DSS/impact forecasting is big already in private industry--now NWS is getting into it too. This is also a retort to stormguy80's doom and gloom scenarios and anyone else who believes the job of the forecaster is only to sit there and push grids out/forecast and write discussions--it is much more than that.

Thankfully I got a lot of experience with this type of forecasting hands on in the private sector.

They lay some of that out in the 2020 strat guide.

http://www.weather.g...es/plan_v01.pdf

[stormguy80]

You really wanna get me going again asking me that? I said I'd stop:)

Our skills are needed elsewhere? This post makes no sense. There are far more duties for a meteorologist than to sit there and forecast.

Yes he never stops.

[VAwxman]

I'm sorry if I came across as rude, it is just frustrating to hear and I feel like every time I read a post from you it is always and only on this subject, lol. You obviously have more experience in the job market in this field than I do, since I'm still in school. I just try to remain optimistic. I still think there are plenty of opportunities out there for atmospheric scientists and it isn't as dismal as you paint it to be, but maybe that is just a rationalization I have. You just have to really stand out by doing research, interning, volunteering, etc. Either way, a degree in meteorology is a useful degree to have even if you don't seek employment in the field, so while realism is needed, I don't think shooing people away from the degree because it'd be "useless" or something is really right either (which isn't necessarily what you were doing, fwiw).

You are taking the right approach. There ARE options out there, including options that pay decent money. Is it a lot? No, and stormguy is right on some accounts, but just overstating it. You hit the nail on the head by saying you really have to do things to stand out. Networking with as many folks in all parts of the field is good too, and as many have mentioned, the willingness to move anywhere also will set you apart from a lot of folks.

[OUtwister]

I think this is why decision support services will eventually become much bigger in the coming years. Yes guidance to some degree has become much better--enough so where the forecaster can give more time to doing actual "impact based" forecasting. The new warnings/advisories they are rolling out at some locations are a great example of that--and it is another way significant economic benefit as well as life saving services can be added. Forecasters aren't going away anytime soon--the job is just evolving. DSS/impact forecasting is big already in private industry--now NWS is getting into it too. This is also a retort to stormguy80's doom and gloom scenarios and anyone else who believes the job of the forecaster is only to sit there and push grids out/forecast and write discussions--it is much more than that.

Thankfully I got a lot of experience with this type of forecasting hands on in the private sector.

They lay some of that out in the 2020 strat guide.

http://www.weather.g...es/plan_v01.pdf

I agree with you 100%. DSS is the wave of the future. There are a lot of forecasters (old-timers especially) who do not agree with this and are going to be in for a rude awakening. But this is what our customers are demanding of us. In this scenario I can easily see us going back to the old WSO/WSFO days where you have minimal staffing at an office for DSS and to keep a radar functioning. Bigger offices would do routine short-term forecasting and warning operations. Essentially a de-modernization scheme.

While that's all well and good and maybe how we will be evolving, that would mean staffing cuts at the smaller WSO-type offices. That may result in staff reduction by attrition, RIFs, early retirements, etc. If that's how it has to be done, so be it. However that would involve uprooting people's lives - they may have jobs but they may have to move to keep them. Not an easy thing to do for a forecaster who may have been in the same location the last 10-15 years.

I most definitely agree that forecasters aren't going away anytime soon. Just in the capacity we are in now. I think it is something that needs to be brought up to future and current met students. I make it a point to mention it to all job shadows that come into our office. Not trying to discourage students from studying meteorology, just a little reality check. Maybe the way to go is a double major, couple a met degree with engineering, journalism, math, etc. Just my 02 cents.

[baroclinic_instability]

I agree with you 100%. DSS is the wave of the future. There are a lot of forecasters (old-timers especially) who do not agree with this and are going to be in for a rude awakening. But this is what our customers are demanding of us. In this scenario I can easily see us going back to the old WSO/WSFO days where you have minimal staffing at an office for DSS and to keep a radar functioning. Bigger offices would do routine short-term forecasting and warning operations. Essentially a de-modernization scheme.

While that's all well and good and maybe how we will be evolving, that would mean staffing cuts at the smaller WSO-type offices. That may result in staff reduction by attrition, RIFs, early retirements, etc. If that's how it has to be done, so be it. However that would involve uprooting people's lives - they may have jobs but they may have to move to keep them. Not an easy thing to do for a forecaster who may have been in the same location the last 10-15 years.

I most definitely agree that forecasters aren't going away anytime soon. Just in the capacity we are in now. I think it is something that needs to be brought up to future and current met students. I make it a point to mention it to all job shadows that come into our office. Not trying to discourage students from studying meteorology, just a little reality check. Maybe the way to go is a double major, couple a met degree with engineering, journalism, math, etc. Just my 02 cents.

I do agree with your general assessment--and the job duties and the ways they are done will eventually change with the times. That can be expected anywhere--and this sort of change would be much more manageable than the ridiculous cuts proposed by the house. Personally I am glad to see the shifting NWS goals towards DSS and I am excited to be a part of it. How the eventual changes are made through the years will be interesting.

[Witness Protection Program]

Well let's see, it is 8:20pm and it took almost 10 minutes and multiple refreshes just to finally get the local forecast page here in DFW. Has frequently been this way for months now, so much so that I rarely bother to go to the NWS anymore and instead use WUndergound unless a storm is pending and I want the detailed discussion. Firefox, IE, Chrome, same results. So at this point I wouldn't cry too many tears if the NWS gets a big budget cut.

But didn't the admin in the last year or so task NWS with multi-million $ global warming studies/propaganda? Threatening to cut the services most useful to the public while protecting the fat is an old blackmail tactic gov't agencies often resort to. Stinks for the vast majority of NWS employees that the current admin appears to be applying their Cloward-Piven strategy to almost every corner of gov't.

[AtticaFanatica]

Funny, I just tried DFW and got right through in about 10 seconds. Cool post though, completely rational and level-headed.

[wlfpack81]

Yep I got on the DFW NWS page in less than 3 seconds. Poster must have an E-machine or some other crappy PC, or maybe he/she is still on dial-up? Of course looking at the meat of that post no secret which side of the aisle they fall on, go make some tea...

[Witness Protection Program]

Funny, I just tried DFW and got right through in about 10 seconds. Cool post though, completely rational and level-headed.

Because, ya know, a one-time anecdotal event provides a more accurate picture than dozens of samples over the last several months.

Just checked outside, it isn't raining. Therefore it probably never rains in DFW. Right?

[Witness Protection Program]

Yep I got on the DFW NWS page in less than 3 seconds. Poster must have an E-machine or some other crappy PC, or maybe he/she is still on dial-up? Of course looking at the meat of that post no secret which side of the aisle they fall on, go make some tea...

Broadband, 1-year old Lenova desktop (ok Vista, but c'mon...) And I won't flee...

But can you get past the DFW NWS front page to the local? And yes, I repeatedly have cleared the cache since the NWS supposedly upgraded their website capacity after the big snowstorm where they temporarily disabled their point and click section.

[AtticaFanatica]

Because, ya know, a one-time anecdotal event provides a more accurate picture than dozens of samples over the last several months.

Just checked outside, it isn't raining. Therefore it probably never rains in DFW. Right?

Man, this post is ironic on so many levels.

[MN Transplant]

Broadband, 1-year old Lenova desktop (ok Vista, but c'mon...) And I won't flee...

But can you get past the DFW NWS front page to the local? And yes, I repeatedly have cleared the cache since the NWS supposedly upgraded their website capacity after the big snowstorm where they temporarily disabled their point and click section.

Took about 5 seconds total to hit my nws bookmark, click on north texas to get to the DFW site, and click on Dallas to get to the local forecast. I think there is something wrong with your computer.

[stormguy80]

This is concerning: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110224/ap_on_re_us/us_congress_spending. Dems considering cuts according to latest news. Not sure if this is refering specifically to the current bill with the 30% NWS cut or just in general that cuts need to be made and they are willing to compromise.

[baroclinic_instability]

This is concerning: http://news.yahoo.co...ngress_spending. Dems considering cuts according to latest news. Not sure if this is refering specifically to the current bill with the 30% NWS cut or just in general that cuts need to be made and they are willing to compromise.

No it is not concerning--it is what was expected with the political process. Political compromise is pretty much what always happens--and cuts are likely to certain government sectors.

[stormguy80]

ok. makes sense. I can deal with that. cuts should be made in places just not in something that is so important in protecting lives!

No it is not concerning--it is what was expected with the political process. Political compromise is pretty much what always happens--and cuts are likely to certain government sectors.

[wall_cloud]

Maybe bare bones staffing for the way duties are assigned at present. However rumors have been circulating for years (ever since GFE came into play) about HPC taking over the extended forecast. They already produce grids for the extended and ship these out to all offices once a day. How long until they issue these grids in-house? All grids would be collaborated with no CWA boundaries evident. Take away long term grids from each office and you can easily cut one position from each office. 122 forecasters down... If this works well, why not produce two sets of extended grids from HPC? Possibly another body lost as that gets absorbed into HPC? Another 122 forecasters gone.

With new technology emerging all the time and the model guidance improving in the short term (for the most part - not always but probably enough) who's to say plug and chug of model guidance for the near term would not be on the table? High res near term models may be good enough for most purposes. Most members of Congress likely do not understand the incredible variability of meteorological details and how a 1-2 hour difference in timing of convection, fog, wind shifts, etc. may impact search and rescue operations, aviation traffic, flight planning, etc. All they want to see are numbers, as that is right in front of them. If the numbers show that models are just as good as humans, why pay the salaries of all these forecasters when no real value is being added?

Not to say that this is where the NWS/NOAA is going. However I think it is irresponsible to assume this would not be the case and things will remain as is over the coming years. It is the job of the Union to get the word out to the public and local media, which in turn gets back to members of Congress. I have a sneaking suspicion that the NWS of today is not what we will see in 5-10 years time if budget woes continue. I hope I'm wrong...

What? I can't stand HPC grids. I'm sure they are fine on a CONUS/regional scale but once you get down to the WFO scale and add terrain into the mix they are not useful. Its usually not horrendous but there are plenty of times that a few degrees can make a huge difference (freezing/liquid precip, breaking the cap, fire weather constraints, freezes...). They don't touch our river valleys at all and we can add a TON of value to them. This is no bash on HPC, they simply cannot mimic the terrain features that we do locally when dealing with such a large domain. Nevermind that, but take away forecast duties and local mets will unavoidably FAIL when it comes to giving adequate lead time for approaching big events. That's the benefit of doing 7 days worth of forecasts. You can see the trends throughout the duration of the week as the big event unfolds and you have a better idea than being handed something at day 3 with poor resolution forecasts leading in.

As for congress not understanding the benefits of forecast improvements, you are likely correct. However, that (IMHO) is the responsibility of our headquarters personnel and lobbyists to make them aware of the benefits. Its not the job of congress to know these things but it is their job to listen to those that do know.

[wall_cloud]

Well let's see, it is 8:20pm and it took almost 10 minutes and multiple refreshes just to finally get the local forecast page here in DFW. Has frequently been this way for months now, so much so that I rarely bother to go to the NWS anymore and instead use WUndergound unless a storm is pending and I want the detailed discussion. Firefox, IE, Chrome, same results. So at this point I wouldn't cry too many tears if the NWS gets a big budget cut.

But didn't the admin in the last year or so task NWS with multi-million $ global warming studies/propaganda? Threatening to cut the services most useful to the public while protecting the fat is an old blackmail tactic gov't agencies often resort to. Stinks for the vast majority of NWS employees that the current admin appears to be applying their Cloward-Piven strategy to almost every corner of gov't.

A budget decrease is exactly why the servers are in the sad shape they are currently in. Another budget cut WOULD be devastating. They simply need the proper resources.

[OUtwister]

What? I can't stand HPC grids. I'm sure they are fine on a CONUS/regional scale but once you get down to the WFO scale and add terrain into the mix they are not useful. Its usually not horrendous but there are plenty of times that a few degrees can make a huge difference (freezing/liquid precip, breaking the cap, fire weather constraints, freezes...). They don't touch our river valleys at all and we can add a TON of value to them. This is no bash on HPC, they simply cannot mimic the terrain features that we do locally when dealing with such a large domain. Nevermind that, but take away forecast duties and local mets will unavoidably FAIL when it comes to giving adequate lead time for approaching big events. That's the benefit of doing 7 days worth of forecasts. You can see the trends throughout the duration of the week as the big event unfolds and you have a better idea than being handed something at day 3 with poor resolution forecasts leading in.

As for congress not understanding the benefits of forecast improvements, you are likely correct. However, that (IMHO) is the responsibility of our headquarters personnel and lobbyists to make them aware of the benefits. Its not the job of congress to know these things but it is their job to listen to those that do know.

I didn't mean to say HPC grids are all that. We deal with lake effect snow all winter long and their grids don't handle that. But for those holding the purse strings I can't imagine it is big enough of an issue to not give the extended over to HPC at some point. Your last point is what worries me most. We are relying on members of Congress to make the decision and, let's be honest, headquarters personnel who haven't stepped foot in a field office in years to inform them of the benefits.

[Rainshadow]

I didn't mean to say HPC grids are all that. We deal with lake effect snow all winter long and their grids don't handle that. But for those holding the purse strings I can't imagine it is big enough of an issue to not give the extended over to HPC at some point. Your last point is what worries me most. We are relying on members of Congress to make the decision and, let's be honest, headquarters personnel who haven't stepped foot in a field office in years to inform them of the benefits.

Wow, I went to post and our internet went down, creepy.

People in headquarters are between a rock and a hard place, they really have no protection to go against agency policy once its set. I've been through this with the A76 process in the 80s and the location of the Brookhaven 88D in the 90s which had many other homes planned for it before arriving at the labs. Proenza didn't last too as the Hurricane Center director bucking policy or being as outspoken as he was, right or wrong. Congress does have a fairly high opinion of us (nobody would co sign that wretched Santorum bill) and at least we do have a union to speak up for our behalf (CONOPs was stopped). HPC can take over the day 6 to day 10 grids.

[isohume]

Wow, I went to post and our internet went down, creepy.

People in headquarters are between a rock and a hard place, they really have no protection to go against agency policy once its set. I've been through this with the A76 process in the 80s and the location of the Brookhaven 88D in the 90s which had many other homes planned for it before arriving at the labs. Proenza didn't last too as the Hurricane Center director bucking policy or being as outspoken as he was, right or wrong. Congress does have a fairly high opinion of us (nobody would co sign that wretched Santorum bill) and at least we do have a union to speak up for our behalf (CONOPs was stopped). HPC can take over the day 6 to day 10 grids.

I thought it was going to be day 4 onward. I agree...let HPC take it over.