aslkahuna Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 As a result of recent major Solar Flare activity as discussed in the Climate Change section, there is a chance for visual aurora in the lower 48 tomorrow and Thursday. We will be monitoring the Geomagnetic activity and will post any alerts in this section. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 So awesome. I have never seen one here, or anywhere, to date. Looking forward to your updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dale Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Back in the '60s there was a huge display over several nights.....Radio reception (especially shortwave) was disrupted..... The color displays were incredible!! Motorists were actually pulling off the road to watch!! You could even hear the "crackling" as the light flickered and swept across the sky!! The display was vivid enough to cast rainbow shadows.....That strong!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 You are probably thinking of the big displays in 1969 which were accompanied by strong landline comm disruption in the Eastern US. There were also big aurbos in 1989 and 1991 as well as in 2001/2003/2004/2005 which were visible down here in Arizona. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 If we can get one in Texas, I will be absolutely thrilled... however, that remains a low possibility for now. A C-class flare (or larger) is currently in progress, with a much larger M-class earlier today, so there should be good viewing over a few days! EDIT: Awww, rats, just a B-Class oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'm not expecting to see anything here, and if I'm reading the maps correctly I need a KP of 6 or 7 to see anything visible around here. What is the best place to get KP forecasts? Not really too knowledgable about predicting this stuff and where to get information...<br><br>From what I can see on http://www.gedds.alaska.edu/auroraforecast/ they are forecasting a quiet aurora forecast for the next 2 days?<br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bklnwx1 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Try : Spaceweather.com for info I'm not expecting to see anything here, and if I'm reading the maps correctly I need a KP of 6 or 7 to see anything visible around here. What is the best place to get KP forecasts? Not really too knowledgable about predicting this stuff and where to get information...<br><br>From what I can see on http://www.gedds.ala...auroraforecast/ they are forecasting a quiet aurora forecast for the next 2 days?<br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 It looks like that they are currently thinking G2-G3 range geomagnetic storming will be possible. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#GeomagneticStorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 It looks like that they are currently thinking G2-G3 range geomagnetic storming will be possible. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ http://www.swpc.noaa...omagneticStorms Cool stuff. It sounds like if a G2-G3 storm actually occurs, it may be visible as far south as NJ. Of course it is probably way too bright to see anything here, especially on the horizon, but I'll certainly be trying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 In 2003 I saw vivid aurora on Long Island and in 2001 or 2002 once in NC! It can happen! In NY I wish I had a long exposure camera because I was on Fire Island at the light house and it was red on one side and green on the other! WOuld have been an amazing shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Cool stuff. It sounds like if a G2-G3 storm actually occurs, it may be visible as far south as NJ. Of course it is probably way too bright to see anything here, especially on the horizon, but I'll certainly be trying! Yeah,it has to be a really good display to be visible with all the light pollution around here. In 2003 I saw vivid aurora on Long Island and in 2001 or 2002 once in NC! It can happen! In NY I wish I had a long exposure camera because I was on Fire Island at the light house and it was red on one side and green on the other! WOuld have been an amazing shot! I can remember hearing about that after it happened.It's really cool that you actually got to see it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 SWPC forecasts the 24 hour A index for Fredricksburg. However, it's the 3 hour ap/Kp index as updated hourly which determines visibility of the aurora. Unless you can read the actual magnetometer traces like I can, the best source of information is the Hourly updates from the Air Force which are posted on the SWPC site. Basically, it's trend forecasting. The other thing to watch is the Total Band the polarity of the Bz as reported on Spaceweather .com. What you want to see is a strong number for the first and a strong negative number for the second. The Gemag storm of October 29-30 2003 was the 5th strongest on record with a Kp of 9 the 3 hour ap hit 400 for a short time and the overall 24 hour A was in the 300 range though not as high as the 388 in March 1989 (400 is the maximum value for either A index). The March 1989 aurora was seen in Hawaii and Central America and the 2003 one in FL and down into Cuba and Puerto Rico with Aurora Australis well into Australia, South Africa and South America. I use the 3 hour data as updated for my aurora alerts based upon past experiences dating back to cycle 19. The intensity definitions and the Categories do not mesh perfectly particularly in the high end of the scales. Intensity uses ap and the Categories are based upon the Kp index. BTW things are currently relatively quiet. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 So awesome. I have never seen one here, or anywhere, to date. Looking forward to your updates. I had the chance of seeing them during my brief time up at LSC...freaking amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 SWPC forecasts the 24 hour A index for Fredricksburg. However, it's the 3 hour ap/Kp index as updated hourly which determines visibility of the aurora. Unless you can read the actual magnetometer traces like I can, the best source of information is the Hourly updates from the Air Force which are posted on the SWPC site. Basically, it's trend forecasting. The other thing to watch is the Total Band the polarity of the Bz as reported on Spaceweather .com. What you want to see is a strong number for the first and a strong negative number for the second. The Gemag storm of October 29-30 2003 was the 5th strongest on record with a Kp of 9 the 3 hour ap hit 400 for a short time and the overall 24 hour A was in the 300 range though not as high as the 388 in March 1989 (400 is the maximum value for either A index). The March 1989 aurora was seen in Hawaii and Central America and the 2003 one in FL and down into Cuba and Puerto Rico with Aurora Australis well into Australia, South Africa and South America. I use the 3 hour data as updated for my aurora alerts based upon past experiences dating back to cycle 19. The intensity definitions and the Categories do not mesh perfectly particularly in the high end of the scales. Intensity uses ap and the Categories are based upon the Kp index. BTW things are currently relatively quiet. Steve Great information.How good were the displays in Arizona during the stronger events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks pretty quiet tonight. Any chances or is this timed better for tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Great information.How good were the displays in Arizona during the stronger events? A sample of the October 2003 event Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 A sample of the October 2003 event Steve Great photo.While I found out about the 2003 event late,others were lucky enough to get some shots from Long Island. http://www.spacew.co...mage001929.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Oct. 2003 was nuts...I "spidered" over the sky in Oswego...so that you can actually see it covering part of the southern sky also. I think that was the biggest magnetic storm since the Montreal blackout in the late 1980s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I would love to be able to see it but...... The full moon might put the kabosh on this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/17/earth-dodges-geomagnetic-storm-scientist/ Looks like the worst of it missed Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 the highlight of my day was the 'aurora alert' for the dc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 the highlight of my day was the 'aurora alert' for the dc area. yeah, i don't want to call bust before the first photons are released from ionized nitrogen, but the writing is on the wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Saw one in Jackson NJ in 2003 on Rt 528, litterally jammed on the breaks pulled over and got of truck as I never seen anything like it, was pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 CME arrived and it's quite meh. Looks good for Canada, not so hot for down here. Might get a Kp of 5 out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Soon after leaving Anchorage on a night flight to Chicago in October 1978 the sky erupted with towering, wavy curtains blazing every color of the rainbow. The pilot turned on the intercom and said: "folks...as you can see, we have a spectacular show of the northern lights...I'm turning off the cabin lights so you may enjoy it." And so, we flew along with no inside lights! The show was a thousand times better than any I'd seen from the ground during my year up there (in Alaska.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This made me duck... real nice CME video http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/gallery/assets/movies/X2_C2_combo_best.mpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This made me duck... real nice CME video http://sdo.gsfc.nasa..._combo_best.mpg Came across that video a few minutes ago too. Very cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This made me duck... real nice CME video http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/gallery/assets/movies/X2_C2_combo_best.mpg I've seen more impressive CME's from C class flares. No wonder this event is underperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's underperforming because the Bz is strongly positive (north pointing) which is the wrong polarity for a Gemag storm. Should it swing negative (south pointing) we could get storming but at this point in time I don't expect much more than a G2 event which would mean aurbo only along the northern Border States unless we got a strong substorm. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Oct. 2003 was nuts...I "spidered" over the sky in Oswego...so that you can actually see it covering part of the southern sky also. I think that was the biggest magnetic storm since the Montreal blackout in the late 1980s? The Gemag storm of October 29-30 2003 was the 5th strongest on record. The March 1989 one to which you refer was the 3rd strongest. Number 1 was 1859, 2 was in 1921 and 4 was in 1909. All five had aurorae visible well into the Tropics with 1 and 2 visible to the equator (the 1859 one was visible in Brazil and Venezuela). Ironically, the flare that produced the 2003 CME was not the biggest of the series being only an X17 (3rd strongest)-the flare that occurred on November 4, 2003 was X44 but it's CME missed the Earth (fortunately). Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.