CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Apparently the 0z NAM was good enough for Buffalo... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 955 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011 WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES. * TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. CHANCE FOR SOME SLEET NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW POSSIBLE. * WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...UNDER A HALF MILE DURING HEAVIER SNOWFALL. * TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. * IMPACTS...VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Newly issued BGM HWO... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1037 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011 STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. ...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SLEET. IF ENOUGH SLEET FALLS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER- TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO- DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 0z GFS yields another solid swiffering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Just looking at the 07Z SmartModel, looking at a general 6-10" snowfall across the upstate NY areas. Buffalo is looking to pick up around 8" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO3 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MODERATE SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS: GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS... BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. * HAZARDS: SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES...EXCEPT 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...AND THE SOUTHWEST MOHAWK VALLEY. ...SNOWFALLRATES WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXTREME AND SNOW-WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND HAVE USED MAINLY 13:1 OR 12:1 RATIOS FOR THE EVENT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH QPF TO WARRANT ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN STRIPE OF ZONES...BUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SOUTH OF THERE WITH GENERALLY 3-6" AND POSSIBLE HIGHER 4-8" AMOUNTS FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HERKIMER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z NAM looked like it should be mostly/all snow here. 850-700mb temps are close, but cold enough. Should it stay snow, it would be 6-9" in the Southern Tier and a bit less in Buffalo. Then the 2nd storm comes through and just brushes the Southern Tier with 3-4" and less than an inch for Buffalo. If we can get it to move north, though, there's 0.5-0.75"+ amounts sitting not far to the south. Backup RUC looks fantastic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 well after looking at the 12z suite we may be getting screwed from the thruway north. It figures the one time we need a north trend or no trend at all, it goes south. at least its nothing too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 well after looking at the 12z suite we may be getting screwed from the thruway north. It figures the one time we need a north trend or no trend at all, it goes south. at least its nothing too impressive. Agree along and north of an approx I-90-Brattleboro line 1-3 inches; south the line 3-5 maybe a lollipop or two of 6 inches across the Catskills. Still think the system will end sooner than model as most PIVA/WAA SWFE type systems do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Just for kicks and giggles, using the various snow ratios from the 12z GFS BUFKIT for KJHW by Monday afternoon: Max temp: 17.4" Zone Omega: 23.9" Surface temp: 17.6" All on 1.17" of precip and comfortably below zero at all levels. It's rough on Buffalo. All of them are around 6" on 0.35" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the PV is in a horrendous position, and we are seeing the result for those in the N and E. but it should be a nice event for the SW parts of the region, and they defintely deserve it. the euro was just marvelous with this system. from a week out it showed the PV dominating the pattern as it dove S and E squishing the storm S and E even though it was well N into the upper plains initially.... it looked ODD.....but it nailed it from a week out (save for 1 hiccup run).....well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z NAM looked like it should be mostly/all snow here. 850-700mb temps are close, but cold enough. Should it stay snow, it would be 6-9" in the Southern Tier and a bit less in Buffalo. Then the 2nd storm comes through and just brushes the Southern Tier with 3-4" and less than an inch for Buffalo. If we can get it to move north, though, there's 0.5-0.75"+ amounts sitting not far to the south. Just for kicks and giggles, using the various snow ratios from the 12z GFS BUFKIT for KJHW by Monday afternoon: Max temp: 17.4" Zone Omega: 23.9" Surface temp: 17.6" All on 1.17" of precip and comfortably below zero at all levels. It's rough on Buffalo. All of them are around 6" on 0.35" of QPF. New 12z ECM hammers the Western S Tier, specifically along / south of I-86. QPF in excess of .80 and all-snow. BUF is going to need to consider a warning-upgrade out there. Edit: Just looked at the 12z NAM and GFS. Quite amazing that all 3 operational models have zero'd in on the exact same location for warning-level snows (Meso-banding pot'l?). I should think a warning-upgrade would be in store this afternoon for Chaut-Catt counties, maybe Srn Erie and Allegany as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 New 12z ECM hammers the Western S Tier, specifically along / south of I-86. QPF in excess of .80 and all-snow. BUF might need to consider a warning-upgrade out there. Yeah its been consistently doing that the last several runs, looks like a nice event out there maybe the biggest synoptic snow of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 New 12z ECM hammers the Western S Tier, specifically along / south of I-86. QPF in excess of .80 and all-snow. BUF is going to need to consider a warning-upgrade out there. Edit: Just looked at the 12z NAM and GFS. Quite amazing that all 3 operational models have zero'd in on the exact same location for warning-level snows (Meso-banding pot'l?). I should think a warning-upgrade would be in store this afternoon for Chaut-Catt counties, maybe Srn Erie and Allegany as well. CTP's gone with 7-11" tonight just to my south in Warren County, so they should be putting up warnings in the next hour. This could be the first time in over 2 years that we wake up to over 5" of snow, too (last time was January 9, 2009). It's almost amazing the consistency of daytime storms that we've had over the past 4 winters, so it will be nice to finally have one overnight. Most models seem to have the bulk of the snow over by 7 or 8am. 13" is the number to beat from January 28, 2009 (the last major synoptic snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 If anyone is interested, here is a replica of the 12z Euro output for the most active hours of 12-24 (7PM Sunday - 7AM Monday). Pretty sure we aren't allowed to post the actual images, so I quickly threw together a hand-drawn replica of the data. The 850 0°C and Surface 32°F lines remain south of the region for the duration, so I only drew in the Critical thicknesses and QPF lines starting at .10". Hour 30 just has some very light precip (<.10) from the southern shores of LO to Washington Cnty on the VT border and points south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Updated BGM snowfall forecast... Based on this, kinda wondering why they left Broome Cnty off the warning-upgrade list, especially when you consider that 75% of the 200k population lives in the southwest corner of the county where the heaviest snow accum's are expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Right about now (7 pm), it looks like a train heading our way: http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/usa_None_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Right about now (7 pm), it looks like a train heading our way: http://images.intell...a_None_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone think this one will go further north like past storms with this track? Check this out... THE NAM ANALYSIS IS ABOUT 3 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED WITH THE SFC LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE PMSL ANALYSIS ALSO PLACES THE SFC LOW ABOUT 60-80 MI FARTHER E/ESE THAN OBSERVED BUT THE NAM BNDRY LAYER WINDS COMPARE BETTER TO SFC DATA. THE GFS PMSL ANALYSIS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM IN DEPTH BUT CONSIDERABLY BETTER IN POSN. OTHER 12Z MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF... AND SOME RUC RUNS... ALSO APPEAR TO BE WEAKER THAN SUGGESTED BY SFC DATA. EARLY IN THE FCST MOST MDLS STILL APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE PLAINS SFC LOW BASED ON SFC DATA THRU 18Z. THUS EARLY PREFERENCES THRU SUN WOULD BE FOR A SOLN SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN MOST 12Z MDLS... MOST CLOSELY APPROXIMATED BY THE UKMET/09Z SREF MEAN. Looks like the model are under-forecasting the strength a bit again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone think this one will go further north like past storms with this track? Check this out... Looks like the model are under-forecasting the strength a bit again... Just no such thing as a cut-and-dry forecast when it comes to these winter storms it seems... If the 0z NAM is correct, a lot of the current forecasts / headlines are in some serious trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 929 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --UPDATED AT 9 PM... REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS/SFC OBS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN APPROACHING OUR WRN ZONES AS OF THIS WRITING...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA...FROM W TO E...THROUGH 05Z. 18Z GFS/NAM RUNS ARE VERY MUCH IN SYNC WITH THE 12Z RUNS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER (REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW). SOME INTERESTING THINGS TO NOTE UPSTREAM EARLY THIS EVENING...FIRSTLY...THE CHARACTER OF THE RADAR ECHOES OVER LWR MI/LK MI (QUITE CELLULAR/CONVECTIVE LOOKING)...AND ALSO THE REPORTS OF THUNDER-SNOW NEAR DETROIT. THE 00Z DETROIT SOUNDING SHOWED WHAT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE AN ABSOLUTE MOIST UNSTABLE LAYER (MAUL) FROM 600-500 MB. AS THIS ENVIRONMENT TRANSLATES EWD LATER TONIGHT...THE PROSPECTS FOR SOME LOCALIZED +SN BANDS WITHIN THE LARGER PCPN SHIELD WOULD SEEM LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. MODEL CROSS-SXNS FROM 06-12Z ACROSS NE PA/CNTRL NY SHOW A NICE BURST OF NEG EPV...JUST PRIOR TO THE BEST FGEN FORCING/SLOPED ASCENT (A NICE RECIPE FOR BANDED HEAVY SNOWFALL). IT WOULD APPEAR THE COMBINATION OF THIS GOOD FRONTAL-SCALE FORCING/STG ISEN LIFT...IS PEGGED TO CROSS THE TWIN TIERS FROM ABOUT 08-12Z...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY DROPPING ESEWD INTO THE WYO/LACK VALLEYS. THE LATEST HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IMAGES DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALSO SEEM TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO. BOTTOM LINE...OUR WARNINGS FROM KELM ESEWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF PA LOOK JUST FINE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD APPEAR TO BE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HRRR ALSO SHOWING A RAPID EXIT OF PCPN FROM 12-15Z. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES PRIOR TO THIS...MAY OVERCOME RELATIVELY SHORT DURATIONS (3-6 HR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Quick burst of moderate-to-heavy snow earlier has yielded about ~.5" thus far. Just a light rate of snow now with semi-decent flake size... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 so much hassle for a 3 inch event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 :snowman: .5" here so far...............not that there's much more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 3.2" here. Enough to cover everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 11.0" of back break! Best storm of the year by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 .8 inches of fluff here as of 7 AM. To think that 2 days ago my personal over/under amount was 6 inches from this storm. What are the chances of something decent from Thursday night/Friday's system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 so much hassle for a 3 inch event.. are yuo serious....wow! ....this one really got shoved S then. congrats on the snow though everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 About 3" out this way too. Light event, but very nice considering the relative lack of activity lately. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I just measured 2.8", but this band of light snow here is still hanging on.... A nice 21F out there. Anyway this pushes us to about 69 inches for the season despite having no storm over 10 inches. About 3" out this way too. Light event, but very nice considering the relative lack of activity lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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