CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 12Z NAM ..someone please post the comedy 12Z NAM snowfall estimate map. Different source than above and this does include what falls before the storm (I.e Today)... Edit: Looks like this is actually snow depth and not-necessarily what falls. Here is a link to the other source... http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 12z GFS is colder, looks like all-snow even in the S Tier. Going to have to watch the critical thicknesses though... Edit: Closer inspection on SV shows the 546 thickness / 0c 850 line protruding into the western S Tier for a time, would definately be mixing issues out there verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I can't remember a winter where almost every major storm (except the February 2 storm) missed Ottawa. It really is incredible. Even with the blocking gone, the storms are either going south of east of us. It reeally does seem like there is a snow shield around Ottawa this year. Mind you, with the exception of 2000-2001, 2007-2008 and the first half of 2008-2009, it's been like that for the past 12 years. there is no blocking but there is a poorly timed PV that passes across the region. its really just a fluke that the timing is like that. 6 hours different timing would have yielded a vastly different result, but its the same old song and dance. as the same time, if that PV wasnt there, then this would have been another torch/cutter with rain. as it is, you get to supply the cold thanks to the PV, and provide enough PV blocking to keep everyon from changing over to rain, but just enough to also screw ottawa again. not sure if people in the south and east coast know it, but they should defintely send you a thank you card for the past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 there is no blocking but there is a poorly timed PV that passes across the region. its really just a fluke that the timing is like that. 6 hours different timing would have yielded a vastly different result, but its the same old song and dance. as the same time, if that PV wasnt there, then this would have been another torch/cutter with rain. as it is, you get to supply the cold thanks to the PV, and provide enough PV blocking to keep everyon from changing over to rain, but just enough to also screw ottawa again. not sure if people in the south and east coast know it, but they should defintely send you a thank you card for the past 2 years. We might get 2-4" I think. Shouldn't be a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 12 ECM is in. Continues to track the LP furthest south and near the Mason-Dixon line. Looks like all snow from about the northern tier of PA and points north with heaviest QPF across the S Tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We might get 2-4" I think. Shouldn't be a complete miss. i'm expecting a complete miss and if we get 1-2, ill consider it a win. that PV is in an awful positon for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 euro puts it through the meat grinder thanks to the PV GEM wants to go that way. NCEP models not so much. the models have been very flip-flop with this system, no consistency at all. the overwhelming signal for me is a horribly postiioned PV resulting in likely a weakening wave with poor moisture influx as it heads east......the further west you are, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z nam That's a good 75-100 miles north of the CMC / ECM track and hence the vastly different solutions. Per the models, the S Tier forecast is looking like anything from snow to ice to rain per the NAM and all snow per the CMC / ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 KALB snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looking at the data. This is one of the sweetest and tightest thermal gradients I can recall seeing in a long time along with some of the best coincidental PIVA too. There will probably be a long but needle thick band of near 7-8 inch snow with this system. Where this band is still not sure. Thinking now along NYS Thruway to Mass Pike line. Think ZR/ZL less likely across NYS (except far west S'rn Tier perhaps)..even sleet mix less (IMO) SE NY south of Hudson. Well back to watching movies and munching on popcorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 KBGM THE NEW 12ZECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/AND UKMET MAINTAIN THE FARTHEST SOUTH STORM TRACK WHICH KEEPS THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. MEANWHILE...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FORMER SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE LATTER MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A MIX ACROSS NW PA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE ATTEMPTED TO FOLLOW HPC/S LEAD WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP AMOUNTS WHICH ULTIMATELY SUPPORTS THE FURTHER NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE GFS AND NAM. FZRA WOULD DOMINATE ACROSS THE LACKAWANNAAND WYOMING VALLEYS...WITH A MIX OF PL/FZRA FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE STATE LINE...AND ALL -SN FOR CENTRAL NY. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM APPROX 0.50 TO 0.60" WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES (10 OR 12:1 SNOWFALL RATIOS). FOR NOW WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS UNDER WARNING THRESHOLDS UNTIL MODELS BEGIN ZEROING IN A MORE SPECIFIC SFC LOW TRACK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY EXISTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Updated HPC for 7AM Sunday - 7AM Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z GFS looks more like the Canadian / European than the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 KALB STILL THE BULK OF THE FA CANEXPECT A 3 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS FROM THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS THIS WILL LOOKS TO BE A LATE 3RD PERIOD AND 4TH PERIOD EVENT WITH PRIMARILY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looking at the data. This is one of the sweetest and tightest thermal gradients I can recall seeing in a long time along with some of the best coincidental PIVA too. There will probably be a long but needle thick band of near 7-8 inch snow with this system. Where this band is still not sure. Thinking now along NYS Thruway to Mass Pike line. Think ZR/ZL less likely across NYS (except far west S'rn Tier perhaps)..even sleet mix less (IMO) SE NY south of Hudson. Well back to watching movies and munching on popcorn. I agree, Sunday night and Moday is a tricky forecast. Everything is going to hinge on where that surface low tracks. But I think there is a good chance we stay all or mostly snow. I think 5-9 inches is a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 HPC 7PM Sunday - 7PM Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 KALB MAY BE too far north with their "sweet" spot max amts. Looks like HPC is trending ever so slightly south. Still have 3 runs of NWP models to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 KALB MAY BE too far north with their "sweet" spot max amts. Looks like HPC is trending ever so slightly south. Still have 3 runs of NWP models to play with. My snow is grimy looking............needs a refresher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Been focused on the MN-WI-MI areas with the snow, but looking at the NY areas as of 19Z, seeing some good snowfall potential, I got Buffalo and Rochester with around 11", Jamestown I have around 7", but it is picking up potential for Ice accumulation over .5". Any thoughts on that. And Albany with around 6" of snow. More detailed list is available on the output site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 My snow is grimy looking............needs a refresher I got a snow cone making thingamajig for Father's Day last year. I have not used it yet. You can try it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I like having several models a little south of us with the best snowfall. ...Thinking this kind of sw flow event will trend north in the final 24 hours if anything. Look at the last few events.... 2 weeks ago in particular. On the other hand ...there hasn't been one significant snow event all year that broke in my favor here at the end. LOL Plenty of light and moderate events (see my stats in sig.), but on no occasion has a storm pleasantly surprised. We did get almost 1.5" from the squalls over the last 18 hours. If not for LES crumbs ..I'd be at maybe 48" for the season instead of mid 60's"..... I got a snow cone making thingamajig for Father's Day last year. I have not used it yet. You can try it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I like having several models a little south of us with the best snowfall. ...Thinking this kind of sw flow event will trend north in the final 24 hours if anything. Look at the last few events.... 2 weeks ago in particular. On the other hand ...there hasn't been one significant snow event all year that broke in my favor here at the end. LOL Plenty of light and moderate events (see my stats in sig.), but on no occasion has a storm pleasantly surprised. We did get almost 1.5" from the squalls over the last 18 hours. If not for LES crumbs ..I'd be at maybe 48" for the season instead of mid 60's"..... I really think on this one you'll get "the love" Rick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 And here come the 0z runs... starting with the newly initialized NAM. Hopefully the consensus tightens this shift and we can start posting some WS Watches across the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 0z NAM has shifted a good bit south toward the rest of the operational models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 So the NAM just fell into line with the others taking the best snow south of the CD. Looks good from BGM into the Catskills and yes even NYC again.... BGM has been screwed by most storms this year so nice for them.... And here come the 0z runs... starting with the newly initialized NAM. Hopefully the consensus tightens this shift and we can start posting some WS Watches across the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 So the NAM just fell into line with the others taking the best snow south of the CD. Looks good from BGM into the Catskills and yes even NYC again.... BGM has been screwed by most storms this year so nice for them.... This is true, as has W NY and most of C NY. The annual screw zone that is the central Southern Tier out around Corning-Elmira probably deserves it most seeing as how they reside outside the lake belts, often too far east for the coastals, and often some of the 1st to get warm-sectored in SWFE's. I think parts of that area are still sitting at 20" or less. Looking at SV temp profiles, NYC and LI are all rain until the very end when they switch over to some light snow based on the presentation of the critical thicknesses / 850 0°C line / Surface 32°F line. Even the northern burbs are a bit questionable and would probably have atleast some PL to contend with. But yeah, BUF-ROC-BGM are looking about as good any place to be attm, hopefully it holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mark this down....the model consensus ATT is for the heaviest QPF to fall along the southern tier. I still hold the notion that models do not handle SW flow events well.....at all....none of them, at least the one's that head for the NY/PA area. Look for the jackpot qpf to be along the Thruway, or north, and mixing to get as far as the S. shore of L. Ontario. Snowfall max will be along the NYS Thruway and northward about 30-50 miles. Although the PV to the north is probably handled well by the models, I have a low confidence in the ejecting s/w from the SW, and history has beat us in the head many times.....models (right up to the event) are almost always too far south with the mixing line, and the max qpf......I'm riding that wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mark this down....the model consensus ATT is for the heaviest QPF to fall along the southern tier. I still hold the notion that models do not handle SW flow events well.....at all....none of them, at least the one's that head for the NY/PA area. Look for the jackpot qpf to be along the Thruway, or north, and mixing to get as far as the S. shore of L. Ontario. Snowfall max will be along the NYS Thruway and northward about 30-50 miles. Although the PV to the north is probably handled well by the models, I have a low confidence in the ejecting s/w from the SW, and history has beat us in the head many times.....models (right up to the event) are almost always too far south with the mixing line, and the max qpf......I'm riding that wave! It's possible, especially since this scenario you so eloquently described above was on most of the models no more than about 30-36 hours ago. This shift to the south has only been recent, so definately not set in stone by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It's possible, especially since this scenario described above was on most of the models no more than about 30-36 hours ago. This shift to the south has only been recent, so definately not set in stone by any means. I'd also point out that if we see a more significant line of convection in the warm sector (to our south, than what the models show) that will be the first hint that we will have a bit more of a ridge out front, and thus a more northward track.....that said, that convection would certainly rob potential qpf from the now modeled qpf hot spots in NYS.....just my random thoughts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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