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Feb 20-21 Upstate NY / North Country Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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Even if GFS LP track verifies that QPF forecast won't it flat out way overdone IMO. Looking at the stacked WSW flow aloft there is no way that the QP will be that much. As of now it looks like a good WAA/PIVA front-end thump perhaps but again not as much QP as it is showing.

Just think back to a couple of weeks ago when we had the Midwest-OV blizzard with similar flow aloft. This system has even more of a westerly component aloft through height.

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This one definitely looks to get squeezed under the negative NAO. The question may become whether it ends up south of us.

To me it is an interesting event, but can never be a real big deal so we go into it with modest expectations and if by chance someone

gets a moderate snowfall (as in 6 inches) then that's a net plus.

If we are gonna get the elusive bomb with big snows ....it's probably a March affair.

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I agree on what Rick and Andy said. I was looking at the teleconnections. The NAO is slightly negative, the AO is positive, and the PNA is negative. The weak Greenland block and the NAO are in a rough agreement . The storm does have one wildcard, that being the Canadian high. we will have to see how fast it moves and where it sets up....But right now I think this storm is going to be a basic no show....At least as far as being anything major....I'm waiting to see which model blinks first the GFS or the EURO....As for storms, I'm keeping my eye on the 26th.

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I might get a little snow Monday morning from the intiial disturbance that goes to the North . The NAM and GFS both agree on the little system passing to our north and are inline with the EURO and suppresses the 21-22 upper level system and clipper type system passing to the south.....The southern tier and CD might get a little.

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I might get a little snow Monday morning. I see the 06Z GFS is in line with the EURO and suppresses the 21-22 upper level system and clipper type system passing to the south.....The southern tier and CD might get a little.

Down this way it spits out 4". We'll see what the next few runs do.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kswf

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This storm looks to be largely a miss for ottawa, but a potential big hit for Toronto.

honestly, with this nice weather, im pretty close to fast forwarding to spring, i could care less about minor or moderate snow events at this point.

this winter is already a lost cause for ottawa barring a miracle, and it would take an active pattern with a couple of big events to rekindle interest.

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If anyone is interested, the 12z ECM is strikingly similar to the 12z CMC / 12z GFS / 18z NAM, two of which were posted above. The 12z ECM qpf looks like a general .4-.8 for the I-90 vicinity and south. As we get closer, I might post a couple hand-drawn replica's of the ECM output wrt to QPF, Temp-profiles if anyone is interested...

All things considered, there is a high level of model agreement at this point with regard to temp profiles, overall track, and QPF. But we all know how our luck can change in the blink of an eye just when things look like they are set-in-stone. Thus, still need to watch this evolution closely, especially since it involves a system tracking in from the west-southwest...

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KALB

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE

UPPER MID WEST SUNDAY EVENING TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY

MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE MONDAY. THE NAM...GFS

AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...SPEED AND

CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF

FIELDS THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GENERALLY

EXPECT A MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FA WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN

FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT

THROUGH NOONTIME ON MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME

MIXING WITH SLEET AND RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON

MONDAY WHICH MAY CUT DOWN ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.

EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATION

BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE

CREATED A STORM TOTAL SNOW GRID FOR THIS EVENT WHICH IS AVAILABLE

ON OUR WEB PAGE. HOWEVER HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF

SYSTEM SLOWS AT ALL. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER

SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY

IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.-- End Changed Discussion --

KBGM

THE FACT THAT THE EASTWARD PROPAGATING SFC LOW WILL HAVE ACCESS TO

HIGH AMOUNTS OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT

WINTER WX SITUATION MAY BE IN THE MAKING...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST

ISSUE BEING FZRA AND PL. OBVIOUSLY SFC LOW TRACK WILL HAVE A

MAJOR IMPACT ON EXPECTED P-TYPE AS A FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD

SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW CWA WIDE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST SFC

LOW TRACK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ICING POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM

THE TWIN TIERS AND POINTS SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...MOSTLY -SN WOULD

BE EXPECTED BASED ON COLDER TEMP PROFILES WHERE HIGH END ADVISORY

SNOWFALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE ATTEMPTED TO SHOW THIS AS

BEST AS POSSIBLE IN THE WX GRIDS. DEFINITELY AN INTERESTING

SITUATION THAT WARRANTS WATCHING

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nws buffalo being stubborn like always :arrowhead:

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REVOLVE AROUND A

FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL

GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THIS

SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LARGE SCALE

FEATURES. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON THE COLORADO PLAINS

TONIGHT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MID

SECTION OF THE NATION BEFORE CROSSING NORTHERN INDIANA/OHIO LATE

SUNDAY NIGHT AND CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING.

THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY

OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AT THE EXPENSE OF A SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH

OVER QUEBEC. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM THEN WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF

MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SUPPORTED BY A DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL

ADVECTION PATTERN AS WARMER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRIES TO PUSH

NORTH ALOFT...WHILE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVANCES SOUTH OUT OF

CANADA IN THE LOW LEVELS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA OF LIFT

WILL LIKELY BE ONE OR TWO BANDS OF STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED

BY STRETCHING DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST

AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO

SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DIFFICULT CALL ON PRECIP TYPE WITH

THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM BRINGING A WARM LAYER ALOFT INTO THE

SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE NAM IS

COLDER. PAST HISTORY WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM HAS SHOWN THAT WARM

AIR SPREADS NORTH FASTER AND FARTHER THAN FORECAST THE VAST MAJORITY

OF THE TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ALOFT TO SPREAD

EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NORTHERNMOST MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT SNOW

TO MIX WITH SLEET OVERNIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NY THRUWAY...WITH

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THAT AND A CHANGE TO MAINLY

FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE TO STAY

ALL SNOW WILL BE IN THE ROW OF COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF

LAKE ONTARIO AND OF COURSE THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON

WEDNESDAY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD...CHANGING ALL

THE PRECIP BACK TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO...OVERALL MODEL QPF LOOKS OVERDONE. EXPECT MOST

AREAS TO REALIZE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF A THIRD TO A HALF INCH...

WHICH IS ABOUT 30 PERCENT OR SO BELOW A GFS/NAM BLEND. THIS WOULD

SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE LIGHTEST

AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGER

FORCING. THAT SAID...THERE MAY BE A BAND OF ENHANCED QPF IF

MESOSCALE BANDING STRUCTURES FORM SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG

FGEN/DEFORMATION SIGNAL. IF THIS OCCURS THERE MAY BE A NARROW AXIS

OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD

PROBABLY ONLY BE ABOUT A COUNTY WIDE AND IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT

THIS TIME RANGE. ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THE WINTRY MIX

WILL LIKELY HOLD SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN. IF PTYPE GOES TO FREEZING RAIN

QUICKLY...MAY SEE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICING.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY TIGHT...MEANING THAT

JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL PRODUCE A BIG

CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED PRECIP TYPES. OVERALL

HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN BOTH DIRECTIONS ON PTYPE AND SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS

BECAUSE OF THIS.

FINALLY...ONE OTHER CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY MORNING. MUCH

COLDER AIR WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH

NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE

ONTARIO. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH A VERY SHALLOW

COLD AIRMASS INITIALLY...BUT IN A SATURATED LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IT

DOES NOT TAKE MUCH. THIS MAY ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS

ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA TO WESTERN OSWEGO

COUNTY...INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPS WILL FALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY SUPPORTED BY STRONG COLD AIR

ADVECTION...DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY EVENING AND

SINGLE DIGITS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

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Cutting it close, but 1.48" of QPF here (might actually be a bit more IMBY) with that. Totally below 0C at all levels, but, like with the last storm, these storms are not to be trusted. Someone between Cleveland and Buffalo is going to get majorly screwed though.

hopefully we all cash in with this one :sun:

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I can't remember a winter where almost every major storm (except the February 2 storm) missed Ottawa. It really is incredible. Even with the blocking gone, the storms are either going south of east of us. It reeally does seem like there is a snow shield around Ottawa this year. Mind you, with the exception of 2000-2001, 2007-2008 and the first half of 2008-2009, it's been like that for the past 12 years.

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