Porsche Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 hr 162 light snow for the whole area...mod-heavy back in western pa....850's and surface south of dc hr 168 low has jump to the coast.......mod snow phl-nyc....surface and 850's south of dc Any comments from someone in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 A moderate snowstorm in this area per e-wall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 ECMWF looks good Here goes from the NY Thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Wow, nice to see the euro showing some consistency for this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 My wife & I will be flying in from London to Philly next Tuesday, so the odds are good that this storm will be at its worst just then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 the euro shows a storm cutting towards the great lakes but hits a block and high pressure and just gets strung out under the block. It then develops a coastal off delmarva...its drops .25-.5 for the region...looks to be mainly snow from m/d line north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 This thread should be folded into the medium/long range thread... or renamed to indicate a date threat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 This thread should be folded into the medium/long range thread... or renamed to indicate a date threat.. yea i agree. I think it should go in the medium/long range discussion till the possible event is 5 days or less away then it can have its own thread. It would be weenish to start a threat page for a possible thread 6-7 days away. We all know what happened with the feb 9-11 threat that looked so great 6-7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 outstanding news. I have been so busy, have not check the board in 24 hours or so. Was hoping to read something positive in the long range Mr brother will be pleased too. We talked on the phone this morning about how this thaw has been a kick in the nutz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 fwiw the euro ens look warmer than the op. The ens also show no precip getting past wpa per forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 This thread should be folded into the medium/long range thread... or renamed to indicate a date threat.. rename it please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z GFS seems to be trending a lot closer to the 12z ECM. the primary is farther west, and the surface is colder. the GFS also pops a secondary between 150 and 156, just a little too late and too far north/east, but the 18z GFS did not have a secondary at all. very interesting if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 at KPNE, sfc temps are 32-35 through 12z Tue., 850mb temps are +2 to +5. Definitely much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 0z GFS seems to be trending a lot closer to the 12z ECM. the primary is farther west, and the surface is colder. the GFS also pops a secondary between 150 and 156, just a little too late and too far north/east, but the 18z GFS did not have a secondary at all. very interesting if you ask me 0z GFS from last night looks like the 0z GFS from Monday night. Meh. Models are going to waffle and I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS went back north a few more times... There's some potential here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Meanwhile the 0Z ECM has 2 inches of snow at most... there is so much confluence that the system gets sheared out and drops 0.2" of precip at most before heading out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Meanwhile the 0Z ECM has 2 inches of snow at most... there is so much confluence that the system gets sheared out and drops 0.2" of precip at most before heading out to sea. This makes me think the system will probably be faster than the Euro's depiction...maybe GFS timing, Euro strength, track remains the wildcard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Latest Wxsim program with 6z data has a mix of snow and rain arriving by 5pm Sunday evening (temp 39.5). Changing to moderate snow between 7 and midnight (temp 31.6) with 2 to 3" of snow accumulating before changing to ZR/IP mix by 130am...over to plain rain by 730am...rain to lt rain ending by 7pm on Monday night Total precip 0.49" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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