Powerball Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 If I recall, the average number of T'Storms Detroit sees is 35 per year. Given the historic trends of convective activity during a La Nina, I would say Detroit sees an above average number of t'storms. However, I do think majority of these will come through early in the season rather than later. In any event, I'll say Detroit sees (I'm not counting the Heavy Convective Showers) Supercells - 1 Squall Lines - 17 MCS - 5 Single Cell - 6 Multi Cell - 8 Heavy Convective Showers (wihtout lightning) - 11 Lake Breeze - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 at least a dozen sups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm pretty much a who gives a fook IMBY and severe is the last thing on my mind on Feb. 15th. Prob could have just bumped this thread, too. http://www.americanw...er-predictions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Had a pretty banging severe season last year with multiple nice derechos and some really nice warned sups. The one monster training MCS event was nice as well. The only complaint was a lack of frequent garden variety t-storm and long stretches of boring. I don't keep track or know what's normal, but i'm leaning active. Hopefully a lot of nocturnal MCS action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm pretty much a who gives a fook IMBY and severe is the last thing on my mind on Feb. 15th. Prob could have just bumped this thread, too. http://www.americanw...er-predictions/ This thread is strictly for a prediciting the general number of T'Storm predictions IYBY, not the number of severe weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 The only complaint was a lack of frequent garden variety t-storm and long stretches of boring. Yeah, one of my disappointments with last season too was the completely lack of cold pool/upper level low events, which are my absolute favorite because they produce the best cumulonimbus clouds and it feels like you're in florida with the sunshine, a brief intense downpours, more sunshine, then another brief intense dowmpour. Then it's rinse-wash-repeat between sunrise and sunset. I think we had one following a decent severe weather event here. We had hit 89*F that day. Unfortunately it came through from the NW during the early afternoon hours so it didn't really get going until it reached SW Ontario/Cleveland. So while I didn't get any thunder I got a nice intense15 minute heavy convective shower (outside a mostly sunny day). Not to mention it happened the day after a decent severe weather event where we lost power, so of course that took the fun out of it all too since I couldn't track it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I think southern Manitoba is due for an active season. I like the idea of a big southern/central US ridge come summer with the lack of moisture down south. That could help to force the jetstream further north come June and July and give North Dakota/Minnesota/Manitoba a nice season. IMBY, I think I'll see 15 thunderstorms this year with a good chunk of the MCS variety... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Nina favors a more active storm pattern going into the warm season right? Hopefully the cool influence tries to keep the jet a bit more south longer for an extended period of fun. We had a decent June last year but it went down the tubes quickly into boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Is this topic a joke? This is almost as bad as when people copy and paste severe weather warnings on forums! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Nina favors a more active storm pattern going into the warm season right? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 At least 40-50 maybe more? Our average is about 45-50 thunderstorm days a year.That is almost impossible to predict. I'm guessing I'll get 4 or 5 tornado warning and 9-10 severe t-storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 36 in 2010 that I know of. 2011... uhh... 30-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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