isnice Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 That cut-off low on the Euro in the southwest is skeptical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I would say the opposite - I'm not sure I can come to grips how this can be a significant snowstorm this far *north* given the trough digging on the west coast, the strong confluence, and the polar vortex dropping into southern Quebec/northern New England ahead of the storm. I'm more concerned this system will minor out and the sfc low will be squashed south over VA/NC than I am about a Lakes cutter with mainly rain and freezing rain. Well it is all related. The trough digging on the west coast is the biggest problem though pumping the heights on the East coast such that any strong system will easily ride north of us if the blocking is weaker..But if the blocking does occur like the euro shows, then that squeeze play squashes the storm to bits and pieces and were left with little precip. Just not a great setup over all I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 For the first time in days, the 120hr analogs look very nice, Three, that's right three MECS showing up. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 12z EURO is similar to 0z it looks promising but ultimately ends up squashing all the energy, nothing gets going. Still remains consistent and remarkably different then the GFS with the handling of the setup. If we could get a nice moisture latent SW flow event like the gfs shows, but with the euro pattern (cold/confluence/blocking) in place the solution would produce snow. Still a while out, curious to see how this one plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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