Hoosier Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 I didn't want to clog up the storm thread, but I noticed that Chicagowx has given up on winter for LAF. That prompted me to check MBY records for the past few years, since our climo is about the same. This what has fallen after Feb 18th (2007-2010): Feb Mar Apr 2007 T, 0.8, 3.0, = 3.8 2008 8.7, 7.9, 0.0, = 16.6 2009 4.0, T, 2.0, = 6.0 2010 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, = 3.0 So, our 2008 anomaly shows that major snows are possible after this date for this region. However, the probabilities drop off dramatically. I can understand why those in North Central IN can be ready to call it a year. March 1st is my drop dead date. After that point, I'm ready for severe action to take over. Like I said in the other thread, I don't think accumulating snow is done for LAF, but the pace has really slowed down and I suspect we have very few snow days left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Pretty soon, a thread will have to be made for the storm for late next week. GFS/EURO are in pretty good agreement the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I didn't want to clog up the storm thread, but I noticed that Chicagowx has given up on winter for LAF. That prompted me to check MBY records for the past few years, since our climo is about the same. This what has fallen after Feb 18th (2007-2010): Feb Mar Apr 2007 T, 0.8, 3.0, = 3.8 2008 8.7, 7.9, 0.0, = 16.6 2009 4.0, T, 2.0, = 6.0 2010 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, = 3.0 So, our 2008 anomaly shows that major snows are possible after this date for this region. However, the probabilities drop off dramatically. I can understand why those in North Central IN can be ready to call it a year. March 1st is my drop dead date. After that point, I'm ready for severe action to take over. Well I mostly gave up due to the future pattern, which looks rather bleak for central Indiana. That being said, March snow is typical for LAF...although large quantities are few and far between. Of course, you could make a case we're overdue for a big March snowstorm. I really wanted to get to 50" for the season, but I think the chance of that happening is very very slim. But as usual, you never know with mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well I mostly gave up due to the future pattern, which looks rather bleak for central Indiana. That being said, March snow is typical for LAF...although large quantities are few and far between. Of course, you could make a case we're overdue for a big March snowstorm. I really wanted to get to 50" for the season, but I think the chance of that happening is very very slim. But as usual, you never know with mother nature. I'm still keeping an eye on that wave for Monday, although it's looking bleak at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm still keeping an eye on that wave for Monday, although it's looking bleak at this point. I gave up on that one already. Hate relying on 2 part systems for snow. Most likely to see snow with it would be I-70 and south through IN and OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 I gave up on that one already. Hate relying on 2 part systems for snow. Most likely to see snow with it would be I-70 and south through IN and OH. It might not and probably won't work out, but I can imagine the models not resolving it properly. Really wouldn't take huge changes overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm actually a bit disgusted...We lost over a foot of snow just yesterday..in ONE day. Neighborhoods and wooded areas still have several inches of slush crap and all open areas along the highways and main roads are bare. Here's hoping all the ugly grass and mud gets covered with a fresh layering of white for a few more weeks. I hope the warmanistas enjoyed their thaw. I called my wife that this week when she was rejoicing about the meltdown and she laughed out loud and said "What did you call me?" I forgot that most of the rest of the world doesn't speak the language of weather boards.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It might not and probably won't work out, but I can imagine the models not resolving it properly. Really wouldn't take huge changes overall. Well I've put little effort into following the threat, so I'll just go back to knowing little and hoping for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I'm actually a bit disgusted...We lost over a foot of snow just yesterday..in ONE day. Neighborhoods and wooded areas still have several inches of slush crap and all open areas along the highways and main roads are bare. Here's hoping all the ugly grass and mud gets covered with a fresh layering of white for a few more weeks. I hope the warmanistas enjoyed their thaw. I called my wife that this week when she was rejoicing about the meltdown and she laughed out loud and said "What did you call me?" I forgot that most of the rest of the world doesn't speak the language of weather boards.... Weather speak makes into the real world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 euro coming south with the 25-27 storm. looks like a weak one comes through then a secondary larger storm goes west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Flood warning for the Wabash River here. Only minor flooding is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Flood warning for the Wabash River here. Only minor flooding is expected. It shouldn't be too bad. Between Roush, Salamonie, and Mississinewa dams, they are dumping about 5,000 cfs into the Wabash. I've seen them release as much as 9,000-10,000. I don't know how much the Tippy River is dumping though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Bah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 euro coming south with the 25-27 storm. looks like a weak one comes through then a secondary larger storm goes west of the apps. Yep.. Things look really active to close out the month. Hopefully I can get in one or two more snow's before the season is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well the snow/sleet pack is all but gone. Just the bigger piles remaining and they took quite the hit. I suspect the snow pack I-80 south is generally gone. The COOP observer in Barrington needs to spot measuring snow piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It might not and probably won't work out, but I can imagine the models not resolving it properly. Really wouldn't take huge changes overall. Well I've put little effort into following the threat, so I'll just go back to knowing little and hoping for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Bah you made out better than here. a fully bare yard (other than piles) for the first time since Jan 4th....so basically bare ground since beginning of December has been limited to Jan 1-4 & Feb 18-? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 you made out better than here. a fully bare yard (other than piles) for the first time since Jan 4th....so basically bare ground since beginning of December has been limited to Jan 1-4 & Feb 18-? Still 46 here. I was thinking temps would be in the 30s by the end of the day, but the strong Feb sun plays me for the fool again. As to that question mark, it looks like a real active pattern setting up over the next week +. Even WCS for you you'll probably end up with at least a couple inches of sleet from the Sunday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Today was cooler, but we still made it back to 50. Didn't even drop to freezing this morning. The scattered patches of snow that were left are gone now. Completely bare out there now except the remaining crusty piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 All that bare ground to the south of me makes me wonder if we don't get a little more warm air in here then advertised for the coming storm... who knows cold air is coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Howling winds this evening. Gust over 55 at 8pm at Pearson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks active and colder the next 10 days, however could we be looking at a repeat of last year? The weekly Euro which has been pretty good of late says enjoy the next next 7-10 days cause the fat lady is warming up her pipes. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/45951/computer-model-outlook-through-end-of-winter.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks active and colder the next 10 days, however could we be looking at a repeat of last year? The weekly Euro which has been pretty good of late says enjoy the next next 7-10 days cause the fat lady is warming up her pipes. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/45951/computer-model-outlook-through-end-of-winter.asp Here's a couple of tips: 1) Might want to go back to your link and scroll down the page to the post about the extended Euro from Feb 11. Look at the March 7-13 specifically...yeah real consistency 2) Don't say things you can't verify (i.e. Euro weeklies have been good) 3) Stop being an annoying troll 4) Despite being an annoying troll, don't change your avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here's a couple of tips: 1) Might want to go back to your link and scroll down the page to the post about the extended Euro from Feb 11. Look at the March 7-13 specifically...yeah real consistency 2) Don't say things you can't verify (i.e. Euro weeklies have been good) 3) Stop being an annoying troll 4) Despite being an annoying troll, don't change your avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 All that bare ground to the south of me makes me wonder if we don't get a little more warm air in here then advertised for the coming storm... who knows cold air is coming back Better bundle up.. Burrrrrr.. Looks really cold for late February.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here's a couple of tips: 1) Might want to go back to your link and scroll down the page to the post about the extended Euro from Feb 11. Look at the March 7-13 specifically...yeah real consistency 2) Don't say things you can't verify (i.e. Euro weeklies have been good) 3) Stop being an annoying troll 4) Despite being an annoying troll, don't change your avatar +1000000000000000000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Friday, February 18th: Hi: 50F Lo: 33F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 29MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here's a couple of tips: 1) Might want to go back to your link and scroll down the page to the post about the extended Euro from Feb 11. Look at the March 7-13 specifically...yeah real consistency 2) Don't say things you can't verify (i.e. Euro weeklies have been good) 3) Stop being an annoying troll 4) Despite being an annoying troll, don't change your avatar Post of the day winner here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks active and colder the next 10 days, however could we be looking at a repeat of last year? The weekly Euro which has been pretty good of late says enjoy the next next 7-10 days cause the fat lady is warming up her pipes. http://www.accuweath...d-of-winter.asp Blow your pipes out fat lady.. I can't wait to track the migration north of Humming Birds over a snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Outside today, its a sunny day but its still hard getting used to bare ground. I mean you actually see more snow on BUSY roads now because of all the plow piles. Driving through neighborhoods its shocking as over half of houses have ZERO snow piles even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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