Hoosier Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 41 as the melt continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Another day another temp bust here. Was forecasted to top out at 38. Currently 44 on my sensor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Another day another temp bust here. Was forecasted to top out at 38. Currently 44 on my sensor. Over is the way to go in this regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 cold front behind the clipper has come through, expecting to plummet about 35 degrees and if you include windchill about 55 degrees. impressive CAA! picked up 4 inches in MTL with the clipper while ottawa busted hard with rain and temps in the low 30s. ....flash freeze going on there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Yeap! I went 48 yesterday and we hit 59 and I higher then any local met. LOL Here is my 7 day I did last night for my bloggers: Tuesday: 49 Wednesday:52 Thursday: 61 Friday: 67 Saturday: 58 and falling into the 40's by mid to late morning Sunday: 46 Have to see where the storm tracks for these highs could bust low or high....If I was a betting man I would go higher for next Monday I think the SE ridge pushes that storm north and west and brings highs near 60 possibly next Monday-Tuesday..... Monday: 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Overachieved here as well today. Made it to 44. Lost another inch or two. Still have about 7-8" of cover. The rate of melting is slower since what's left is very dense. Before the blizzard our 3-4" of cover had a very thick, crusty layer in it from when a half inch of rain fell into it and froze later on. Still looks like 60 here Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Two days of wind, man the snow took a beating. Especially i cant believe how much some of the massive piles went down. Also trees now have that ring around them from sucking up all the snow, and even a few grass patches near open, busy salt-inundated roads. Snow depth still a solid 7-8" however, and omg it is so dense its not funny. Honestly the top is already as hard as a rock, will be VERY interesting tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 18z GFS had a 964 low in WI at hr 360. Crazy GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 31 now. The assault on the snow is halted temporarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 messing around with my professor today i asked him if he'd take the over or under for a foot of snow over the next 2 weeks he said under, i'm going over. I beat him on our last bet of us hitting 45 he took the under i took the over and we hit 46 I'm really hoping i beat him again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 messing around with my professor today i asked him if he'd take the over or under for a foot of snow over the next 2 weeks he said under, i'm going over. I beat him on our last bet of us hitting 45 he took the under i took the over and we hit 46 I'm really hoping i beat him again. Yeah, his under is probably going to fail, if it doesn't fail it will be a miss to the south but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah, his under is probably going to fail, if it doesn't fail it will be a miss to the south but not by much. Ya i'm thinking that if you include the upcoming storm the euro and gfs have 3 storms at least that have a shot for me to get snow through 240 hours with an active pattern still ongoing, if i do get missed it wont be by much and others in the midwest will be crushed. We'll see I'm really pumped for the third storm it seems like it could be a huge plains event but we need to see what the first 2 do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Ya i'm thinking that if you include the upcoming storm the euro and gfs have 3 storms at least that have a shot for me to get snow through 240 hours with an active pattern still ongoing, if i do get missed it wont be by much and others in the midwest will be crushed. We'll see I'm really pumped for the third storm it seems like it could be a huge plains event but we need to see what the first 2 do. You talking about the one in the 288-324 hr range? I think all these storms have a good shot of yielding for someone, there is just too much energy crashing ashore not to yield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 You talking about the one in the 288-324 hr range? I think all these storms have a good shot of yielding for someone, there is just too much energy crashing ashore not to yield. no 216-240 euro, but ya the mean trough positioning, progressive pattern, and location of the PV is great for a big storm for the midwest, or plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 no 216-240 euro, but ya the mean trough positioning, progressive pattern, and location of the PV is great for a big storm for the midwest, or plains. Yeah after 240 would be a nice image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Two days of wind, man the snow took a beating. Especially i cant believe how much some of the massive piles went down. Also trees now have that ring around them from sucking up all the snow, and even a few grass patches near open, busy salt-inundated roads. Snow depth still a solid 7-8" however, and omg it is so dense its not funny. Honestly the top is already as hard as a rock, will be VERY interesting tomorrow morning. Mitch check out the Maple trees especially, in just a few days the branches are turning red highlighting their new growth and clearly they are beggining to waken up.They are really sucking up the snow big time. In fact even the buds on the silver maples are showing signs of swelling which is normal this time of year. The 20 inches of snow here has been all but been chewed up and faces imminent death come Thursday. Shocked how the warmth mixed all the way down to the surface as much as it had, surely I thought it was gonna be tough to break high 30's earlier this week but it did and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm thinking my area could get up well into the 70's on Thursday and Friday. I would also not be surprised to see some records shattered as well this week. 71 degrees is the record on Thursday and 74 is on Friday. A lot people have spring fever down and have been mocking me by saying winter is over. I warned them and said I have a pretty good feeling we will have one or two more accumulating snows this year. Even if they are small. After all we have seen snow in April. Although snows bigger than 3 or 4 inches are usually done by the middle March. Although I remember 4 years ago we had a 2-3 inch snowfall during the middle of April during Spring Break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Yeah after 240 would be a nice image. kinda right at truncation is my excitement for the third storm it should be a beast, I'm loving this longwave pattern progressive and active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 kinda right at truncation is my excitement for the third storm it should be a beast, I'm loving this longwave pattern progressive and active. It is great but things can change so fast and we could get burned. I sure hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It is great but things can change so fast and we could get burned. I sure hope not. Well ya they certainly can but this sort of active pattern doesn't have as much flip flopping, ie. we aren't praying on some magical phase from the northern and southern, we should have a fairly active southern stream storms may miss but at least there will be storms. Active progressive patterns are inherently less volatile in regards to cyclogenesis. This could go way south but i'm pretty sure there will be several significant storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Well ya they certainly can but this sort of active pattern doesn't have as much flip flopping, ie. we aren't praying on some magical phase from the northern and southern, we should have a fairly active southern stream storms may miss but at least there will be storms. Active progressive patterns are inherently less volatile in regards to cyclogenesis. This could go way south but i'm pretty sure there will be several significant storms. Exactly. I am glad we are done with hoping for phasing with the northern and southern streams. Lows coming out of the Sw and rockies dont need phasing to become siginificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Well ya they certainly can but this sort of active pattern doesn't have as much flip flopping, ie. we aren't praying on some magical phase from the northern and southern, we should have a fairly active southern stream storms may miss but at least there will be storms. Active progressive patterns are inherently less volatile in regards to cyclogenesis. This could go way south but i'm pretty sure there will be several significant storms. When is the last time we had a pattern like this coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 When is the last time we had a pattern like this coming up? i'm not operational yet so i'm not the best person to ask, I really think just glancing at the march 2008 narr stuff that this is the most likely candidate, really if you want to compare patterns you need that persistent western ridge that has been there all winter long and the progressive pattern that this pattern had is similar. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008.html start at the first and loop forward i didn't check febuary stuff but i assume it was pretty similar, we might have gone zonal and progressive about a week before the first of march, but the potential is there for a huge storm and tons of wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 i'm not operational yet so i'm not the best person to ask, I really think just glancing at the march 2008 narr stuff that this is the most likely candidate, really if you want to compare patterns you need that persistent western ridge that has been there all winter long and the progressive pattern that this pattern had is similar. http://www.meteo.psu.../NARR/2008.html start at the first and loop forward i didn't check febuary stuff but i assume it was pretty similar, we might have gone zonal and progressive about a week before the first of march, but the potential is there for a huge storm and tons of wintry weather. Thanks for the info! It really is looking stormy and it looks like we might see at least 1 big storm up this way. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Monday, February 14th: Hi: 45F Lo: 26F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Clear. Max Wind Gust: 30MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Thanks for the info! It really is looking stormy and it looks like we might see at least 1 big storm up this way. What do you think? I'm pretty confident that we see a couple of major storms, i mean even looking at the models through 192 hours we have 3 sub 1000mb lows thats a pretty ridiculous pattern for storms to be impacting an area. I'm not sure if we get a real bomb but i think that the third storm is probably our best chance the second storm looks like it'll be weaker than the 3rd storm. By the way if the 3rd storm misses this pattern won't change really until in the NH we see a real blockbuster that initiates some blocking so this could continue well into march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I'm pretty confident that we see a couple of major storms, i mean even looking at the models through 192 hours we have 3 sub 1000mb lows thats a pretty ridiculous pattern for storms to be impacting an area. I'm not sure if we get a real bomb but i think that the third storm is probably our best chance the second storm looks like it'll be weaker than the 3rd storm. By the way if the 3rd storm misses this pattern won't change really until in the NH we see a real blockbuster that initiates some blocking so this could continue well into march. Sounds good to me. It is about time. The clipper parade sounds like it is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Sounds good to me. It is about time. The clipper parade sounds like it is ending. that 6 week pattern was brutal, the poorly sampled northern stream had way to many extreme clipper solution that never panned out and we were always looking at these ugly quick hitters that were gone before you even enjoyed them. I'm way more of a slow deformation type watching the banded snowfall rotate in. While clippers are dynamically awesome to watch i'd rather have a southern storm with gulf flow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 that 6 week pattern was brutal, the poorly sampled northern stream had way to many extreme clipper solution that never panned out and we were always looking at these ugly quick hitters that were gone before you even enjoyed them. I'm way more of a slow deformation type watching the banded snowfall rotate in. While clippers are dynamically awesome to watch i'd rather have a southern storm with gulf flow events. Agreed, The clippers move too quick but the snow sure came down when they went through here. Gulf flow events are the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 6z GFS would pretty much melt all snow south and east of the minnesota iowa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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