Wx4cast Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 A very preliminary look at data (IMO) has me leaning toward a potential high wind event of LONG duration from Fri into Sunday Along with a possible embedded line of forced convection with possible Severe WX (High Wind even a bit of hail) Fri Night into Saturday. (I smell another possible case study if things pan out. If they do who is game?!) To me has some similarity to: Feb 2006 High Wind Event I'll have to look at the data a bit more closely (probably not until Wed) but so far this looks to be an even stronger system than the one I cited. Plus could very well be a hybrid event...synoptic wind (S then WSW-W) plus low-topped (potentially severe) NCFRB/QLCS type system. Could be "twisted" fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 A very preliminary look at data (IMO) has me leaning toward a potential high wind event of LONG duration from Fri into Sunday Along with a possible embedded line of forced convection with possible Severe WX (High Wind even a bit of hail) Fri Night into Saturday. (I smell another possible case study if things pan out. If they do who is game?!) To me has some similarity to: Feb 2006 High Wind Event I'll have to look at the data a bit more closely (probably not until Wed) but so far this looks to be an even stronger system than the one I cited. Plus could very well be a hybrid event...synoptic wind (S then WSW-W) plus low-topped (potentially severe) NCFRB/QLCS type system. Could be "twisted" fun. past several runs of the gfs were showing 80+ knots @850mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 past several runs of the gfs were showing 80+ knots @850mb... To get a HW event takes a lot more than just what the winds are aloft. One needs thins like NVM, dry slots, "good" lapse rates, etc. Wind speed forecast aloft means. nothing. Suggestion Google Niziol's paper on Non-Convective High Wind Events (for Western NYS). One of the best reads and free education that you will ever get. Then after your read this paper go to: High Wind Events by Asunas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 To get a HW event takes a lot more than just what the winds are aloft. One needs thins like NVM, dry slots, "good" lapse rates, etc. Wind speed forecast aloft means. nothing. Suggestion Google Niziol's paper on Non-Convective High Wind Events (for Western NYS). One of the best reads and free education that you will ever get. Then after your read this paper go to: High Wind Events by Asunas thanks,I'll do that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 disaster OK, now back to your regaularly scheduled thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/research/webwind/windweb1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 A very preliminary look at data (IMO) has me leaning toward a potential high wind event of LONG duration from Fri into Sunday Along with a possible embedded line of forced convection with possible Severe WX (High Wind even a bit of hail) Fri Night into Saturday. (I smell another possible case study if things pan out. If they do who is game?!) To me has some similarity to: Feb 2006 High Wind Event I'll have to look at the data a bit more closely (probably not until Wed) but so far this looks to be an even stronger system than the one I cited. Plus could very well be a hybrid event...synoptic wind (S then WSW-W) plus low-topped (potentially severe) NCFRB/QLCS type system. Could be "twisted" fun. Excellent post...I agree.... another good paper is A Climatology of Cold-Season Nonconvective Wind Events in the Great Lakes Region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....nd/windweb1.htm That is a great paper...Like Andy said, it will give a great education on these type of wind events. If anyone wants it in PDF A CLIMATOLOGY OF NON-CONVECTIVE HIGH WIND EVENTS IN WESTERN NEW YORK STATE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Suggestion Google Niziol's paper on Non-Convective High Wind Events (for Western NYS). One of the best reads and free education that you will ever get. I read it every Valentines Day before spending time with the wife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I read it every Valentines Day before spending time with the wife LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 I read it every Valentines Day before spending time with the wife Try reading it as a bed-time story to the children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Try reading it as a bed-time story to the children. I wanted to but my wife thought I would be too long winded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I wanted to but my wife thought I would be too long winded Gotta save your breath for other things, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Does Friday still look dramatic? To me I am seeing that low tracking soo far north of us in Canada and dragging that front through Friday evening. It seems like the real energy is kinda far removed. Gotta save your breath for other things, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Does Friday still look dramatic? To me I am seeing that low tracking soo far north of us in Canada and dragging that front through Friday evening. It seems like the real energy is kinda far removed. Its looking less likely. Yes the low track is all wrong. You need it moving along or just north of LO and the SLV with continued deepening. We will be windy Friday (late) night thru Saturday could see some gusts 45 mph perhaps on Saturday but probably no worse then any of the more windy days that we've had this winter thus far. As for possible NCFRB or a line of low-topped forced convection that looks less likely too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hiker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Its looking less likely. Yes the low track is all wrong. You need it moving along or just north of LO and the SLV with continued deepening. We will be windy Friday (late) night thru Saturday could see some gusts 45 mph perhaps on Saturday but probably no worse then any of the more windy days that we've had this winter thus far. As for possible NCFRB or a line of low-topped forced convection that looks less likely too. Everyone: Thanks for the heads-up and the referenced papers. While much of the technical data is somewhat over my head (and consequently I had to breeze through it much too quickly), it's clear that my plans to bushwhack Vly and Bearpen Mts (north central Catskill 3500 ft peaks) on Sat might best be postponed. Wind, temps and snow/ice aren't the problem - tree limbs suddenly snapping overhead could be. A couple quick questions: I've always been unable to comfortably visualize the 3-D movements of air currents in and around low pressures. Why would cold air advection occur in steep lapse rates? Is this advection the mixing referred to in these events? Thanks again. Hiker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM qpf for tomorrow, looks like a few inches could fall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 NAM qpf for tomorrow, looks like a few inches could fall.. Nice LES signature west and Upslope signature east of the HV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Pretty nifty snowband setting up across C NY attm.. BGM just expanded the LES Advisory to include Broome-Schuyler-Seneca-Tioga-Tompkins counties until 10PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's a whiteout... plain and simple. The snowband is directly overhead... probably close to 1.5-1.75"/Hr snowfall rate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Picked up 3" so far, snow still flying..Thruway was closed this morning due to the hazardous conditions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderqueen Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 We got at least 5" of snow here today southwest of Ithaca. Tomorrow will check out the southeastern part of the county. It looked like they will get a few inches more than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 A very preliminary look at data (IMO) has me leaning toward a potential high wind event of LONG duration from Fri into Sunday Along with a possible embedded line of forced convection with possible Severe WX (High Wind even a bit of hail) Fri Night into Saturday. (I smell another possible case study if things pan out. If they do who is game?!) To me has some similarity to: Feb 2006 High Wind Event I'll have to look at the data a bit more closely (probably not until Wed) but so far this looks to be an even stronger system than the one I cited. Plus could very well be a hybrid event...synoptic wind (S then WSW-W) plus low-topped (potentially severe) NCFRB/QLCS type system. Could be "twisted" fun. you should start a thread for next week storm,high wind potential is a possibility for the whole area imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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